Are money and consumption additively separable in the euro area? A non-parametric approach

We propose a numerical test of the non-parametric conditions for additive separability between consumption and real money balances, building on Varian (1983). If additive separability is rejected, then real balances enter into the theoretical IS curve. We test whether or not monetary assets and consumption are additively separable for the euro area using quarterly data from 1991 to 2005. Previous results using a parametric approach suggest that real balances can be excluded from the IS curve. We find that additive separability is violated over this sample period. After 1992, however, violations involve only a few observations and are in some instances related to measurement problems in the data. Overall, our results tend to support the claim that perfect non-separability between consumption and real balances is implausible, but that non-separabilities may not be very important empirically. At the same time, we reject additive separability throughout if we extend the sample period back to the 1980s, a period characterised by higher volatility in inflation and money growth. JEL Classification: C14, C63, E41Additive Separability, IS Curve, Money, Non-parametric testing, Revealed Preference

Does money matter in the IS curve? The case of the UK

Narrow and broad money measures (including Divisia aggregates) have been found to have explanatory power for UK output in backward-looking specifications of the IS curve. In this paper, we explore whether or not real balances enter into a forward-looking IS curve for the UK, building on the theoretical framework of Ireland (2004). To do this, we test for additive separability between consumption and money over a sizeable part of the post-ERM period using non-parametric methods. If consumption and money are not additively separable, then real money balances enter into the forward-looking IS curve (the converse does not hold, however). A main finding is that the UK data seem to be broadly consistent with additive separability for the the more recent period from 1999 to 2007. JEL Classification: C14, C43, C63, E21, E41Additive Separability, Divisia Monetary Aggregates, IS Curve, measurement error, Non-Parametric Tests

Redefining the Monetary Agggregates: A Clean Sweep

This paper focuses on the role of sweep programs in properly measuring money. We propose new monetary aggregates that adjust the conventional measures to account for the medium of exchange capability of funds in sweep programs. Using data on swept funds in retail and commercial demand deposit (DD) sweep programs, we provide time series of monthly data on the sweep-adjusted money measures. By the twenty-first century, DD sweeps have led to distortion in reported MZM of approximately 3 percent, 5 percent for M2, and 6 percent for M2M. Underreporting of M1 due to retail and DD sweep programs is almost 70 percent.

Forecasting Inflation: the Relevance of Higher Moments

We provide evidence that higher moments of the relative price distribution improve out-of-sample forecasts of inflation. Further, we show how theoretically consistent higher moments can be calculated by expanding the seminal work by Theil (1967). Results presented here are of direct relevance to monetary authorities, policy analysts and academic economistsrelative price distribution, higher moments, out-of-sample inflation forecasting

Adjusted estimates for time-to-event endpoints.

In the analysis of retrospective data or when interpreting results from a single-arm phase II clinical trial relative to historical data, it is often of interest to show plots summarizing time-to-event outcomes comparing treatment groups. If the groups being compared are imbalanced with respect to factors known to influence outcome, these plots can be misleading and seemingly incompatible with results obtained from a regression model that accounts for these imbalances. We consider ways in which covariate information can be used to obtain adjusted curves for time-to-event outcomes. We first review a common model-based method and then suggest another model-based approach that is not as reliant on model assumptions. Finally, an approach that is partially model free is suggested. Each method is applied to an example from hematopoietic cell transplantation

Experiments in terabyte searching, genomic retrieval and novelty detection for TREC 2004

In TREC2004, Dublin City University took part in three tracks, Terabyte (in collaboration with University College Dublin), Genomic and Novelty. In this paper we will discuss each track separately and present separate conclusions from this work. In addition, we present a general description of a text retrieval engine that we have developed in the last year to support our experiments into large scale, distributed information retrieval, which underlies all of the track experiments described in this document

Biodigital publics: personal genomes as digital media artifacts

The recent proliferation of personal genomics and direct-to-consumer (DTC) genomics has attracted much attention and publicity. Concern around these developments has mainly focused on issues of biomedical regulation and hinged on questions of how people understand genomic information as biomedical and what meaning they make of it. However, this publicity amplifies genome sequences which are also made as internet texts and, as such, they generate new reading publics. The practices around the generation, circulation and reading of genome scans do not just raise questions about biomedical regulation, they also provide the focus for an exploration of how contemporary public participation in genomics works. These issues around the public features of DTC genomic testing can be pursued through a close examination of the modes of one of the best known providers—23andMe. In fact, genome sequences circulate as digital artefacts and, hence, people are addressed by them. They are read as texts, annotated and written about in browsers, blogs and wikis. This activity also yields content for media coverage which addresses an indefinite public in line with Michael Warner’s conceptualisation of publics. Digital genomic texts promise empowerment, personalisation and community, but this promise may obscure the compliance and proscription associated with these forms. The kinds of interaction here can be compared to those analysed by Andrew Barry. Direct-to-consumer genetics companies are part of a network providing an infrastructure for genomic reading publics and this network can be mapped and examined to demonstrate the ways in which this formation both exacerbates inequalities and offers possibilities for participation in biodigital culture

Divisia Second Moments: An Application of Stochastic Index Number Theory

W. A. Barnett originated the Divisia monetary aggregates, using Diewert's results on superlative index numbers and Barnett's derivation of the user cost of monetary asset services. The resulting Divisia index can be interpreted as a first moment aggregating over growth rates with expenditure shares serving as probabilities. But Theil showed that there are analogous higher order Divisia moments providing distributional information. In this paper we use the Divisia second moments to investigate distributional information in the monetary aggregate growth rates and to measure aggregation error in the Divisia first moments