Skin-to-skin contact and breastfeeding practices in Nigeria : a study of socioeconomic inequalities

Background: The effects of breastfeeding practices on children’s health are undoubtedly of great interest. However, inequalities in breastfeeding practices and mother and newborn skin-to-skin contact (SSC) exist in many resource-constrained settings. This study examined the regional prevalence and socioeconomic inequalities in exclusive breastfeeding (EBF), early initiation of breastfeeding and SSC in Nigeria. Methods: Data on 2936 infants under six months were extracted from the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) to determine EBF. In addition, data on 21,569 children were analysed for early initiation of breastfeeding and SSC. Concentration index and curves were used to measure socioeconomic inequalities in EBF, early initiation of breastfeeding and SSC. Results: The prevalence of EBF, early initiation of breastfeeding and SSC were 31.8, 44.2 and 12.1% respectively. Furthermore, Ogun state had the highest prevalence of EBF (71.4%); while Bayelsa state had the highest prevalence of SSC (67.8%) and early initiation of breastfeeding (96.2%) respectively. Urban dwellers had higher prevalence of EBF, SSC and early initiation of breastfeeding across household wealth quintile and by levels of mothers’ education in contrast to their rural counterparts. We quantified inequalities in early initiation of breastfeeding, EBF, and SSC according to household wealth and maternal education. The study outcomes had greater coverage in higher household wealth, in contrast to the lower household wealth groups; early initiation of breastfeeding (concentration index = 0.103; p = 0.002), EBF (concentration index = 0.118; p < 0.001), and SSC (concentration index = 0.152; p < 0.001) respectively. Furthermore, early initiation of breastfeeding (concentration index = 0.091; p < 0.001), EBF (concentration index = 0.157; p < 0.001) and SSC (concentration index = 0.156; p < 0.001) had greater coverage among mothers with higher educational attainment. Conclusion: Low prevalence and socioeconomic inequalities in early initiation of breastfeeding, EBF and SSC were identified. We recommend that health promotion programs targeted and co-designed with disadvantaged mothers are critical to meet global breastfeeding targets. Also, future researchers should conduct further studies especially clinical control trials and qualitative studies to unravel the possible reasons for differences in the indicators

Prevalence and Factors Associated with Institutional-based Delivery in The Gambia: Further Analysis of Population-based Cross- Sectional Data

Institutional-based delivery could be the major strategy to avoid most maternal deaths occurring from preventable obstetric complications. The study examines the prevalence and factors associated with institutional-based delivery in The Gambia. The secondary data, from The Gambia Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) – 2018 for 3,791 women aged 15-49 years who had given birth, were extracted for the analysis. Chi-square analysis and multivariable logistic regression model were used to determine factors associated with institutional-based delivery with statistical significance set at p &lt; 0.05. About three-quarters (78.1%) of Gambian women had institutional-based delivery. The study identified that women from richer (AOR= 2.38; 95%CI: 1.49, 3.79) and richest households (4.14; 95%CI: 2.06, 8.33) were more likely to have institutional-based delivery whencompared with women from poorest households. Furthermore, women with secondary or higher education (AOR= 1.66; 95%CI: 1.28, 2.16) were more likely to have institutional-based delivery, when compared with women without formal education. Conversely, rural dwellers (AOR= 0.63; 95%CI: 0.47, 0.84), women with high parity and advanced age had significant reduction in the odds of institutional-based delivery in The Gambia. There is a need for concerted efforts to improve skilled birth attendance among women of low socioeconomic status, those living in hard-to-reach communities and the multiparous women in The Gambia. Keywords: Facility-based delivery, childbirth, intra-partum, maternal health, TBA, The GambiaL'accouchement en établissement pourrait être la principale stratégie pour éviter la plupart des décès maternels dus à des complications obstétricales évitables. L'étude visait à examiner la prévalence et les facteurs associés à l'accouchement en établissement en Gambie. Les données secondaires, issues de l'enquête en grappes à indicateurs multiples (MICS) de la Gambie -2018 pour 3791 femmes âgées de 15 à 49 ans qui avaient accouché, ont été extraites pour l'analyse. Une analyse du chi carré et un modèle de régression logistique multivariable ont été utilisés pour déterminer les facteurs associés à la prestation en établissement avec une signification statistique fixée à p &lt;0,05. Environ les trois quarts (78,1%) des femmes gambiennes ont accouché en institution. L'étude a identifié les femmes des ménages les plus riches (AOR = 2,38; IC à 95%: 1,49, 3,79) et les plus riches (4,14; IC à 95%: 2,06, 8,33) étaient plus susceptibles d'avoir un accouchement en établissement par rapport aux femmes des ménages les plus pauvres. De plus, les femmes ayant fait des études secondaires ou supérieures (AOR = 1,66; IC à 95%: 1,28, 2,16) étaient plus susceptibles d'avoir un accouchement en établissement, par rapport aux femmes sans éducation formelle. Inversement, les habitants des zones rurales (AOR = 0,63; IC à 95%: 0,47, 0,84), les femmes avec une parité élevée et un âge avancé ont connu une réduction significative des chances d'accouchement en établissement en Gambie. Des efforts concertés sont nécessaires pour améliorer l'assistance à l'accouchement qualifiée chez les femmes de faible statut socioéconomique, celles vivant dans des communautés difficiles à atteindre et les femmes multipares en Gambie. (Afr J Reprod Health 2020; 24[2]: 176-186). Mots-clés: Accouchement en établissement, accouchement, intra-partum, santé maternelle, à déterminer, Gambi

Seroprevalence and Determinants of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection Among Women of Reproductive Age in Mozambique: A Multilevel Analysis

Background Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) has continued to be one of the foremost public health problems globally. Even as more people living with the disease can now have access to antiretroviral therapy (ART), there are still some regions in the world with high transmission rates. The objective of this study was to examine the prevalence and individual-, household- and community-level factors associated with HIV infection among women of reproductive age in Mozambique. Methods We used nationally representative cross-sectional data from the 2015 Survey of Indicators on Immunization, Malaria and HIV or Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) in Mozambique. A sample of 4726 women of reproductive age was included in this study. Prevalence was measured in percentage and the factors for HIV infection were examined using a multivariable multilevel logistic regression model. The level of significance was set at P < 0.05. Results The seroprevalence of HIV among women in Mozambique was 10.3% (95% CI 9.2%, 11.6%). Furthermore, women who had two, three and four or more total lifetime number of sex partners were 2.73, 5.61 and 3.95 times as likely to have HIV infection when compared with women with only one lifetime sex partners, respectively. In addition, women of Islam religion had 60% reduction in HIV infection when compared with Christian women (adjusted odds ratio, AOR = 0.40; 95% CI 0.16, 0.99). The individual-level model (model B) had the best model fitness with the lowest Akaike information criterion (AIC) = 500.87 and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) = 648.88. The variations in the odds of HIV infection across communities (σ2 = 9.61 × 10–8; SE = 0.55) and households (σ2 = 1.02 × 10–4; SE = 1.02) were estimated. Results from the median odds ratio (MOR = 1.00) did not show any evidence of community and household contextual factors shaping HIV infection. MOR equal to unity (1) indicated that there were no community or household variances given the ICC of 0.0%. At both community and household levels, the explained variances were each 100%. This implied total variances in HIV infection has been explained by the individual-level factors. Conclusion In this study, we found that having multiple total lifetime number of sexual partners and religion were predisposing factors for HIV infection at individual woman level. Female headship and wealth quintiles were associated with HIV infection at household level. Community illiteracy, intimate partner violence, poverty and geographical region were associated with HIV infection at community level. Therefore, multifaceted health intervention by stakeholders in the healthcare system will be useful in addressing the multilevel predisposing factors of HIV infection among Mozambican women

Coverage and factors associated with mother and newborn skin-to-skin contact in Nigeria: a multilevel analysis

Abstract: Background: Mother and newborn skin-to-skin contact (SSC) is an immediate postpartum intervention known to improve the health of newborn and mothers alike. Albeit, there is paucity of data that explored the coverage or factors associated with SSC in Nigeria. Therefore, we aimed to explore the coverage and hierarchical nature of the factors associated with SSC among women of reproductive age in Nigeria. Methods: The 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) data was used for this study. Data on 29,992 women who had ever given birth were extracted for analysis. SSC was the outcome variable as determined by women’s report. A multivariable multilevel logistic regression model was used to estimate the fixed and random effects of the factors associated with SSC. Statistical significance was determined at p< 0.05. Results: The coverage of SSC was approximately 12.0%. Educated women had higher odds of SSC, when compared with women with no formal education. Those who delivered through caesarean section (CS) had 88% reduction in SSC, when compared with women who had vaginal delivery (OR= 0.12; 95%CI: 0.07, 0.22). Women who delivered at health facility were 15.58 times as likely to practice SSC, when compared with those who delivered at home (OR= 15.58; 95%CI: 10.64, 22.82). Adequate ANC visits and low birth weight significantly increased the odds of SSC. Women from richest household were 1.70 times as likely to practice SSC, when compared with women from poorest household (OR= 1.70; 95%CI: 1.04, 2.79). There was 65% reduction in SSC among women with high rate of community non-use of media, when compared with women from low rate of community non-use of media (OR= 0.35; 95%CI: 0.20, 0.61). Conclusion: SSC coverage was low in Nigeria. Moreover, individual, household and community level factors were associated with SSC. More enlightenment should be created among women to bring to limelight the importance of SSC specifically to newborn’s health

Differentials in the prevalence of acute respiratory infections among under-five children: An analysis of 37 sub-Saharan countries

Objective. We investigated the prevalence and risk factors of ARI in children under 5years old in 37 SSA countries. Methods. Data from Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) of 37 African countries was examined in this analysis. Data from children under the age of 5 years old were examined. Forest plot was used to identify disparities in the occurrence of ARIs across SSA countries. Results. We observed a higher prevalence of ARI among children under 5 in Uganda, Kenya, Sao Tome and Principe (9% each), Gabon, Chad, Eswatini (8% each), Burundi, Ethiopia, Congo Democratic Republic (7.0% each). The prevalence of ARI among under-five children who sought medical advice/ treatment from health facility was higher in South Africa (88%), Sierra Leone (86%), Tanzanian (85%), Guinea (83%) and Uganda (80%). The prevalence rate of ARI among under-five children who received antibiotics was higher in Tanzania (61%), Sao Tome and Principe (60%), Rwanda and Congo (58% each), Angola (56.0%), Mozambique (54.0%), Kenya (53.0%), Namibia (52.0%) and Gabon (50.0%). This study found that the household wealth index, maternal education, and urban residence were significantly associated with ARI (p<0.001). A higher prevalence of ARI was observed among urban residents, low income families, and those with mothers with lower education. Conclusion. ARI prevalence could be reduced by improving household socioeconomic status, child nutrition and community awareness of indoor and outdoor pollution. Interventions and programs focused on early diagnosis, treatment and prevention of ARIs are crucial in reducing ARIs particularly in developing countries

Global, regional, and national burden of rheumatoid arthritis, 1990–2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background Rheumatoid arthritis is a chronic autoimmune inflammatory disease associated with disability and premature death. Up-to-date estimates of the burden of rheumatoid arthritis are required for health-care planning, resource allocation, and prevention. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, we provide updated estimates of the prevalence of rheumatoid arthritis and its associated deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age, sex, year, and location, with forecasted prevalence to 2050. Methods Rheumatoid arthritis prevalence was estimated in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 using Bayesian meta-regression models and data from population-based studies and medical claims data (98 prevalence and 25 incidence studies). Mortality was estimated from vital registration data with the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm). Years of life lost (YLL) were calculated with use of standard GBD lifetables, and years lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated from prevalence, a meta-analysed distribution of rheumatoid arthritis severity, and disability weights. DALYs were calculated by summing YLLs and YLDs. Smoking was the only risk factor analysed. Rheumatoid arthritis prevalence was forecast to 2050 by logistic regression with Socio-Demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying by projected population estimates. Findings In 2020, an estimated 17·6 million (95% uncertainty interval 15·8–20·3) people had rheumatoid arthritis worldwide. The age-standardised global prevalence rate was 208·8 cases (186·8–241·1) per 100 000 population, representing a 14·1% (12·7–15·4) increase since 1990. Prevalence was higher in females (age-standardised female-to-male prevalence ratio 2·45 [2·40–2·47]). The age-standardised death rate was 0·47 (0·41–0·54) per 100 000 population (38 300 global deaths [33 500–44 000]), a 23·8% (17·5–29·3) decrease from 1990 to 2020. The 2020 DALY count was 3 060 000 (2 320 000–3 860 000), with an age-standardised DALY rate of 36·4 (27·6–45·9) per 100 000 population. YLDs accounted for 76·4% (68·3–81·0) of DALYs. Smoking risk attribution for rheumatoid arthritis DALYs was 7·1% (3·6–10·3). We forecast that 31·7 million (25·8–39·0) individuals will be living with rheumatoid arthritis worldwide by 2050. Interpretation Rheumatoid arthritis mortality has decreased globally over the past three decades. Global age-standardised prevalence rate and YLDs have increased over the same period, and the number of cases is projected to continue to increase to the year 2050. Improved access to early diagnosis and treatment of rheumatoid arthritis globally is required to reduce the future burden of the disease.publishedVersio

Global, regional, and national prevalence and mortality burden of sickle cell disease, 2000–2021: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background Previous global analyses, with known underdiagnosis and single cause per death attribution systems, provide only a small insight into the suspected high population health effect of sickle cell disease. Completed as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, this study delivers a comprehensive global assessment of prevalence of sickle cell disease and mortality burden by age and sex for 204 countries and territories from 2000 to 2021. Methods We estimated cause-specific sickle cell disease mortality using standardised GBD approaches, in which each death is assigned to a single underlying cause, to estimate mortality rates from the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-coded vital registration, surveillance, and verbal autopsy data. In parallel, our goal was to estimate a more accurate account of sickle cell disease health burden using four types of epidemiological data on sickle cell disease: birth incidence, age-specific prevalence, with-condition mortality (total deaths), and excess mortality (excess deaths). Systematic reviews, supplemented with ICD-coded hospital discharge and insurance claims data, informed this modelling approach. We employed DisMod-MR 2.1 to triangulate between these measures—borrowing strength from predictive covariates and across age, time, and geography—and generated internally consistent estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality for three distinct genotypes of sickle cell disease: homozygous sickle cell disease and severe sickle cell β-thalassaemia, sickle-haemoglobin C disease, and mild sickle cell β-thalassaemia. Summing the three models yielded final estimates of incidence at birth, prevalence by age and sex, and total sickle cell disease mortality, the latter of which was compared directly against cause-specific mortality estimates to evaluate differences in mortality burden assessment and implications for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Findings Between 2000 and 2021, national incidence rates of sickle cell disease were relatively stable, but total births of babies with sickle cell disease increased globally by 13·7% (95% uncertainty interval 11·1–16·5), to 515 000 (425 000–614 000), primarily due to population growth in the Caribbean and western and central sub-Saharan Africa. The number of people living with sickle cell disease globally increased by 41·4% (38·3–44·9), from 5·46 million (4·62–6·45) in 2000 to 7·74 million (6·51–9·2) in 2021. We estimated 34 400 (25 000–45 200) cause-specific all-age deaths globally in 2021, but total sickle cell disease mortality burden was nearly 11-times higher at 376 000 (303 000–467 000). In children younger than 5 years, there were 81 100 (58 800–108 000) deaths, ranking total sickle cell disease mortality as 12th (compared to 40th for cause-specific sickle cell disease mortality) across all causes estimated by the GBD in 2021. Interpretation Our findings show a strikingly high contribution of sickle cell disease to all-cause mortality that is not apparent when each death is assigned to only a single cause. Sickle cell disease mortality burden is highest in children, especially in countries with the greatest under-5 mortality rates. Without comprehensive strategies to address morbidity and mortality associated with sickle cell disease, attainment of SDG 3.1, 3.2, and 3.4 is uncertain. Widespread data gaps and correspondingly high uncertainty in the estimates highlight the urgent need for routine and sustained surveillance efforts, further research to assess the contribution of conditions associated with sickle cell disease, and widespread deployment of evidence-based prevention and treatment for those with sickle cell disease.publishedVersio

Global, regional, and national mortality due to unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning, 2000–2021: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background Unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning is a largely preventable cause of death that has received insufficient attention. We aimed to conduct a comprehensive global analysis of the demographic, temporal, and geographical patterns of fatal unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning from 2000 to 2021. Methods As part of the latest Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning mortality was quantified using the GBD cause of death ensemble modelling strategy. Vital registration data and covariates with an epidemiological link to unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning informed the estimates of death counts and mortality rates for all locations, sexes, ages, and years included in the GBD. Years of life lost (YLLs) were estimated by multiplying deaths by remaining standard life expectancy at age of death. Population attributable fractions (PAFs) for unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning deaths due to occupational injuries and high alcohol use were estimated. Findings In 2021, the global mortality rate due to unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning was 0·366 per 100 000 (95% uncertainty interval 0·276–0·415), with 28 900 deaths (21 700–32 800) and 1·18 million YLLs (0·886–1·35) across all ages. Nearly 70% of deaths occurred in males (20 100 [15 800–24 000]), and the 50–54-year age group had the largest number of deaths (2210 [1660–2590]). The highest mortality rate was in those aged 85 years or older with 1·96 deaths (1·38–2·32) per 100 000. Eastern Europe had the highest age-standardised mortality rate at 2·12 deaths (1·98–2·30) per 100 000. Globally, there was a 53·5% (46·2–63·7) decrease in the age-standardised mortality rate from 2000 to 2021, although this decline was not uniform across regions. The overall PAFs for occupational injuries and high alcohol use were 13·6% (11·9–16·0) and 3·5% (1·4–6·2), respectively. Interpretation Improvements in unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning mortality rates have been inconsistent across regions and over time since 2000. Given that unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning is almost entirely preventable, policy-level interventions that lower the risk of carbon monoxide poisoning events should be prioritised, such as those that increase access to improved heating and cooking devices, reduce carbon monoxide emissions from generators, and mandate use of carbon monoxide alarms.publishedVersio

Global burden of chronic respiratory diseases and risk factors, 1990–2019: an update from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Updated data on chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs) are vital in their prevention, control, and treatment in the path to achieving the third UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), a one-third reduction in premature mortality from non-communicable diseases by 2030. We provided global, regional, and national estimates of the burden of CRDs and their attributable risks from 1990 to 2019. Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we estimated mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), prevalence, and incidence of CRDs, i.e. chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), asthma, pneumoconiosis, interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis, and other CRDs, from 1990 to 2019 by sex, age, region, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) in 204 countries and territories. Deaths and DALYs from CRDs attributable to each risk factor were estimated according to relative risks, risk exposure, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level input. Findings: In 2019, CRDs were the third leading cause of death responsible for 4.0 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 3.6–4.3) with a prevalence of 454.6 million cases (417.4–499.1) globally. While the total deaths and prevalence of CRDs have increased by 28.5% and 39.8%, the age-standardised rates have dropped by 41.7% and 16.9% from 1990 to 2019, respectively. COPD, with 212.3 million (200.4–225.1) prevalent cases, was the primary cause of deaths from CRDs, accounting for 3.3 million (2.9–3.6) deaths. With 262.4 million (224.1–309.5) prevalent cases, asthma had the highest prevalence among CRDs. The age-standardised rates of all burden measures of COPD, asthma, and pneumoconiosis have reduced globally from 1990 to 2019. Nevertheless, the age-standardised rates of incidence and prevalence of interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis have increased throughout this period. Low- and low-middle SDI countries had the highest age-standardised death and DALYs rates while the high SDI quintile had the highest prevalence rate of CRDs. The highest deaths and DALYs from CRDs were attributed to smoking globally, followed by air pollution and occupational risks. Non-optimal temperature and high body-mass index were additional risk factors for COPD and asthma, respectively. Interpretation: Albeit the age-standardised prevalence, death, and DALYs rates of CRDs have decreased, they still cause a substantial burden and deaths worldwide. The high death and DALYs rates in low and low-middle SDI countries highlights the urgent need for improved preventive, diagnostic, and therapeutic measures. Global strategies for tobacco control, enhancing air quality, reducing occupational hazards, and fostering clean cooking fuels are crucial steps in reducing the burden of CRDs, especially in low- and lower-middle income countries. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global, regional, and national burden of osteoarthritis, 1990–2020 and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background Osteoarthritis is the most common form of arthritis in adults, characterised by chronic pain and loss of mobility. Osteoarthritis most frequently occurs after age 40 years and prevalence increases steeply with age. WHO has designated 2021–30 the decade of healthy ageing, which highlights the need to address diseases such as osteoarthritis, which strongly affect functional ability and quality of life. Osteoarthritis can coexist with, and negatively effect, other chronic conditions. Here we estimate the burden of hand, hip, knee, and other sites of osteoarthritis across geographies, age, sex, and time, with forecasts of prevalence to 2050. Methods In this systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study, osteoarthritis prevalence in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 was estimated using data from population-based surveys from 26 countries for knee osteoarthritis, 23 countries for hip osteoarthritis, 42 countries for hand osteoarthritis, and US insurance claims for all of the osteoarthritis sites, including the other types of osteoarthritis category. The reference case definition was symptomatic, radiographically confirmed osteoarthritis. Studies using alternative definitions from the reference case definition (for example self-reported osteoarthritis) were adjusted to reference using regression models. Osteoarthritis severity distribution was obtained from a pooled meta-analysis of sources using the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index. Final prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights to calculate years lived with disability (YLDs). Prevalence was forecast to 2050 using a mixed-effects model. Findings Globally, 595 million (95% uncertainty interval 535–656) people had osteoarthritis in 2020, equal to 7·6% (95% UI 6·8–8·4) of the global population, and an increase of 132·2% (130·3–134·1) in total cases since 1990. Compared with 2020, cases of osteoarthritis are projected to increase 74·9% (59·4–89·9) for knee, 48·6% (35·9–67·1) for hand, 78·6% (57·7–105·3) for hip, and 95·1% (68·1–135·0) for other types of osteoarthritis by 2050. The global age-standardised rate of YLDs for total osteoarthritis was 255·0 YLDs (119·7–557·2) per 100 000 in 2020, a 9·5% (8·6–10·1) increase from 1990 (233·0 YLDs per 100 000, 109·3–510·8). For adults aged 70 years and older, osteoarthritis was the seventh ranked cause of YLDs. Age-standardised prevalence in 2020 was more than 5·5% in all world regions, ranging from 5677·4 (5029·8–6318·1) per 100 000 in southeast Asia to 8632·7 (7852·0–9469·1) per 100 000 in high-income Asia Pacific. Knee was the most common site for osteoarthritis. High BMI contributed to 20·4% (95% UI –1·7 to 36·6) of osteoarthritis. Potentially modifiable risk factors for osteoarthritis such as recreational injury prevention and occupational hazards have not yet been explored in GBD modelling. Interpretation Age-standardised YLDs attributable to osteoarthritis are continuing to rise and will lead to substantial increases in case numbers because of population growth and ageing, and because there is no effective cure for osteoarthritis. The demand on health systems for care of patients with osteoarthritis, including joint replacements, which are highly effective for late stage osteoarthritis in hips and knees, will rise in all regions, but might be out of reach and lead to further health inequity for individuals and countries unable to afford them. Much more can and should be done to prevent people getting to that late stage