Identifying hotspots for ecosystem restoration across heterogeneous tropical savannah-dominated regions.

This is the final version. Available from the Royal Society via the DOI in this record. There is high potential for ecosystem restoration across tropical savannah-dominated regions, but the benefits that could be gained from this restoration are rarely assessed. This study focuses on the Brazilian Cerrado, a highly species-rich savannah-dominated region, as an exemplar to review potential restoration benefits using three metrics: net biomass gains, plant species richness and ability to connect restored and native vegetation. Localized estimates of the most appropriate restoration vegetation type (grassland, savannah, woodland/forest) for pasturelands are produced. Carbon sequestration potential is significant for savannah and woodland/forest restoration in the seasonally dry tropics (net biomass gains of 58.2 ± 37.7 and 130.0 ± 69.4 Mg ha-1). Modelled restoration species richness gains were highest in the central and south-east of the Cerrado for savannahs and grasslands, and in the west and north-west for woodlands/forests. The potential to initiate restoration projects across the whole of the Cerrado is high and four hotspot areas are identified. We demonstrate that landscape restoration across all vegetation types within heterogeneous tropical savannah-dominated regions can maximize biodiversity and carbon gains. However, conservation of existing vegetation is essential to minimizing the cost and improving the chances of restoration success. This article is part of the theme issue 'Understanding forest landscape restoration: reinforcing scientific foundations for the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration'.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)Natural Environment Research CouncilFAPESP (São Paulo Research Foundation)NordesteUKR

Basin-wide variation in tree hydraulic safety margins predicts the carbon balance of Amazon forests

Tropical forests face increasing climate risk1,2, yet our ability to predict their response to climate change is limited by poor understanding of their resistance to water stress. Although xylem embolism resistance thresholds (for example, Ψ50) and hydraulic safety margins (for example, HSM50) are important predictors of drought-induced mortality risk3–5, little is known about how these vary across Earth’s largest tropical forest. Here, we present a pan-Amazon, fully standardized hydraulic traits dataset and use it to assess regional variation in drought sensitivity and hydraulic trait ability to predict species distributions and long-term forest biomass accumulation. Parameters Ψ50 and HSM50 vary markedly across the Amazon and are related to average long-term rainfall characteristics. Both Ψ50 and HSM50 influence the biogeographical distribution of Amazon tree species. However, HSM50 was the only significant predictor of observed decadal-scale changes in forest biomass. Old-growth forests with wide HSM50 are gaining more biomass than are low HSM50 forests. We propose that this may be associated with a growth–mortality trade-off whereby trees in forests consisting of fast-growing species take greater hydraulic risks and face greater mortality risk. Moreover, in regions of more pronounced climatic change, we find evidence that forests are losing biomass, suggesting that species in these regions may be operating beyond their hydraulic limits. Continued climate change is likely to further reduce HSM50 in the Amazon6,7, with strong implications for the Amazon carbon sink

Basin-wide variation in tree hydraulic safety margins predicts the carbon balance of Amazon forests

This is the final version. Available on open access from Nature Research via the DOI in this recordData availability: The pan-Amazonian HT dataset (Ψ 50, Ψ dry and HSM50) and branch wood density per species per site, as well as forest dynamic and climate data per plot presented in this study are available as a ForestPlots.net data package at https://forestplots.net/data-packages/Tavares-et-al-2023. Basal area weighted mean LMA is shown in Supplementary Table 2. Species stem wood density data were obtained from Global Wood Density database65,66. Species WDA data were extracted from ref. 45.Code availability: The codes to recreate the main analyses and the main figures presented in this study are available as a ForestPlots.net data package at https://forestplots.net/data-packages/Tavares-et-al-2023.Tropical forests face increasing climate risk, yet our ability to predict their response to climate change is limited by poor understanding of their resistance to water stress. Although xylem embolism resistance thresholds (for example, Ψ 50) and hydraulic safety margins (for example, HSM50) are important predictors of drought-induced mortality risk, little is known about how these vary across Earth’s largest tropical forest. Here, we present a pan-Amazon, fully standardized hydraulic traits dataset and use it to assess regional variation in drought sensitivity and hydraulic trait ability to predict species distributions and long-term forest biomass accumulation. Parameters Ψ 50 and HSM50 vary markedly across the Amazon and are related to average long-term rainfall characteristics. Both Ψ 50 and HSM50 influence the biogeographical distribution of Amazon tree species. However, HSM50 was the only significant predictor of observed decadal-scale changes in forest biomass. Old-growth forests with wide HSM50 are gaining more biomass than are low HSM50 forests. We propose that this may be associated with a growth–mortality trade-off whereby trees in forests consisting of fast-growing species take greater hydraulic risks and face greater mortality risk. Moreover, in regions of more pronounced climatic change, we find evidence that forests are losing biomass, suggesting that species in these regions may be operating beyond their hydraulic limits. Continued climate change is likely to further reduce HSM50 in the Amazon, with strong implications for the Amazon carbon sink

Spectral asynchrony as a measure of ecosystem response diversity

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via the DOI in this recordData availability statement: The data that support the findings of this study along with the corresponding code for calculating spectral asynchrony and drought responses are available in Zenodo at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10528876. Tree species occurrence data is freely accessible in the DRYFLOR network website (http://www.dryflor.info/data/datasets). Monthly precipitation and temperature data are available in the WorldClim database (https://www.worldclim.org/). Data on soil cation exchange capacity and bulk density are available in the SoilGrids database (https://soilgrids.org/). MODIS EVI data spanning from 2001 to 2018 and Sentinel-2 data of the DRYFLOR sites are available in the Google Earth Engine data catalog (https://earthengine.google.com/).Species diversity is crucial for promoting ecosystem resilience and stability. Species diversity promotes complementarity in resource use, resulting in a wider range of responses to adverse conditions. This enables populations of different species to fluctuate asynchronously, maintaining ecosystem functioning during extreme climatic events. However, incorporating such mechanisms into conservation decisions and ecosystem modelling requires scalable metrics that represent species diversity, which is currently lacking. To address this, we introduce spectral asynchrony, a metric that captures the spatial heterogeneity of species’ functional responses occurring in distinct pixels. Here, we use remote sensing datasets to investigate the relationship between spectral asynchrony and productivity responses of seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTF) to climatic fluctuations. Our findings reveal that spectral asynchrony is associated with increased resistance and recovery of SDTF productivity in following extreme drought years, as well as greater productivity stability over two decades. Furthermore, higher spectral asynchrony was associated with relatively wetter regions, suggesting that increasing aridity across SDTF could potentially reduce landscape heterogeneity and limit ecosystem resilience to increasing droughts in the future. Spectral asynchrony provides an easily measurable and monitorable metric for assessing ecosystem responses to global changes, reflecting and scaling-up the effects of species diversity at the local level.Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)Serrapilheira Institut

Cost-effective restoration for carbon sequestration across Brazil's biomes.

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via the DOI in this record Data availability: Data will be made available on request.Tropical ecosystems are central to the global focus on halting and reversing habitat destruction as a means of mitigating carbon emissions. Brazil has been highlighted as a vital part of global climate agreements because, whilst ongoing land-use change causes it to be the world's fifth biggest greenhouse gas emitting country, it also has one of the greatest potentials to implement ecosystem restoration. Global carbon markets provide the opportunity of a financially viable way to implement restoration projects at scale. However, except for rainforests, the restoration potential of many major tropical biomes is not widely recognised, with the result that carbon sequestration potential may be squandered. We synthesize data on land availability, land degradation status, restoration costs, area of native vegetation remaining, carbon storage potential and carbon market prices for 5475 municipalities across Brazil's major biomes, including the savannas and tropical dry forests. Using a modelling analysis, we determine how fast restoration could be implemented across these biomes within existing carbon markets. We argue that even with a sole focus on carbon, we must restore other tropical biomes, as well as rainforests, to effectively increase benefits. The inclusion of dry forests and savannas doubles the area which could be restored in a financially viable manner, increasing the potential CO2e sequestered >40 % above that offered by rainforests alone. Importantly, we show that in the short-term avoiding emissions through conservation will be necessary for Brazil to achieve it's 2030 climate goal, because it can sequester 1.5 to 4.3 Pg of CO2e by 2030, relative to 0.127 Pg CO2e from restoration. However, in the longer term, restoration across all biomes in Brazil could draw down between 3.9 and 9.8 Pg of CO2e from the atmosphere by 2050 and 2080.NERCFAPESPNERCFAPESPNERCFAPESPNERCFAPESPNatural Environment Research CouncilShellCNPq (National Council for Scientific & Technological Development