Capital flows to developing countries and terms of trade shocks

Fil: Barone, Sergio. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; Argentina.Fil: Descalzi, Ricardo. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; Argentina.This paper studies the relationship between FDI inflows and terms-of-trade shocks. We examine the existing literature related to the "Lucas Paradox", and analyze theoretically how a terms-of-trade shock would impact on less developed economies. We apply a xed eects generalized least squares regression framework to regress FDI inflows on terms-of-trade shock alongside other control variables. We find that for the group of "developing" economies the estimated coecient of shocks to TOT are lower than that estimated for the group of advanced" economies. Then, less developed economies do not take advantage of positive global cycles because they are investment-constrained economies.Este trabajo estudia la relación entre los flujos de entrada de inversión externa directa ("FDI inflows") y los términos de intercambio. Se examina la literatura existente sobre la denominada "Paradoja de Lucas", y se analiza teóricamente el impacto de los shocks en los términos de intercambio en las economías menos desarrolladas. Se aplica una regresión de mínimos cuadrados generalizados con efectos fijos, utilizando como variable dependiente a los "FDI inflows"; los términos de intercambio actúan como variable independiente. Entonces, los países en desarrollo no aprovecharían completamente los ciclos globales positivos, dado que se trata de economías con restricciones para invertir.www.bcu.gub.uyFil: Barone, Sergio. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; Argentina.Fil: Descalzi, Ricardo. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; Argentina.Economía, Econometrí

Effects on welfare and poverty of the increase in international prices of agricultural commodities. A simulation exercise for Argentina, México and Uruguay

With a large share of households with low and medium-low income, the increase in agricultural commodity prices has the potential to hurt a sizable part of the population through a rise in the price of the consumption basket. Ex-ante this is the case. A less obvious channel, through changes in labor income would be more beneficial to middle-income households in Argentina and Uruguay, and to low income ones in Mexico. Overall, in Argentina and Mexico all households experience losses, between 3% and 7.5% of their initial expenditure in the former case, and between 10% and 12% in the latter. In both cases, poorer households are the most affected. In Uruguay, instead, households at the upper end of the distribution would benefit with the increase in the international price of agricultural commodities, with low-income households losing as much as 7.5%. In terms of poverty, the increases would be between 19% and 34%, with Uruguay being the most affected and Argentina the least. Increases in indigence would be even greater, between 29% (Argentina) and 52% (Mexico). Also, the results show that households in a situation of indigence and/or poverty, would move in average further away from the threshold lines, meaning that within each category, poor and indigent households become more homogeneous among them.www.bcu.gub.uyFil: Barone, Sergio. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; Argentina.Fil: Descalzi, Ricardo. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; Argentina.Fil: Moncarz, Pedro. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; Argentina.Fil: Moncarz, Pedro. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina.Economía, Econometrí

Capital flows, institutional quality and terms of trade

This paper studies the relationship between FDI and the TOT in the less developed countries in response to the institutional quality that each presents. Our hypothesis is that the least developed countries with low institutional quality are reluctant to invest Rodrik [2007], suffer from credit constraints Agénor and Aizenman [2004], and face an endogenous risk premium given the asymmetries of information, depend on their collateral Gertler and Rogoff [1990], closely linked to the behavior of their TOT. We found that the coefficient that measures the response of FDI to TOT is decreasing with institutional quality. Countries with low quality experience a penalty for having low institutional quality.Este trabajo estudia la relación entre los términos de intercambio atendiendo a la calidad institucional que presentan los pases menos desarrollados. Nuestra hipótesis es que los pases menos desarrollados con baja calidad institucional son expulsores de la inversión Rodrik [2007], enfrentan restricciones crediticias Agénor and Aizenman [2004], y la prima de riesgo endgena, dada la asimetra de información, depende de su coloteral Gertler and Rogoff [1990] que esta directamente vinculado al comportamiento de los TOT. En este trabajo encontramos que el coefficiente que mide la respuesta de la inversin externa directa a los términos de intercambio es decreciente con la calidad institucional. Los países con baja calidad institucional sufren por ello una penalización.http://www.aaep.org.ar/anales/works/works2016/barone.pdfFil: Barone, Sergio. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; Argentina.Fil: Descalzi, Ricardo. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; Argentina.Fil: Navarrete, José Luis. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; Argentina.Economía, Econometrí

Model study of generalized parton distributions with helicity flip

Generalized parton distributions with helicity flip are studied in the quark sector, within a simple version of the MIT bag model, assuming an SU(6) wave function for the proton target. In the framework under scrutiny it turns out that only the generalized transversity distribution, H_T^q, is non vanishing. For this quantity, the forward limit is properly recovered and numerical results are found to underestimate recent lattice data for its first moment. Positivity bounds recently proposed are fulfilled by the obtained distribution. The relevance of the analysis for the planning of measurements of the quark generalized transversity is addressed.Comment: 15 pages, 4 figures; shortened version accepted for publication in Phys. Rev.

Las variables comerciales y las "reversiones" de cuenta corriente: ¿La elección de la defi nición importa? Una aplicación para los países de América Latina

This paper demonstrates that the choice between alternative definitions of current account reversal suggested in the literature does matter for the identification of the frequency and dating of reversals. Using variables suggested by the solvency hypothesis three models of a random effect probity are estimated, and the results are compared to highlight the role of the statistical identification of “reversal” used in the exercise. Growth, exports, and changes in terms of trade, are significant, and have the expected signs. The results highlight both the critical role of trade variables in the genesis of reversals and that the choice of definition matters for the sign and significance of determinants.Una reversión de la cuenta corriente es, en general, un cambio brusco, sustancial y sostenido del déficit, pero existen diversas propiedades estadísticas para su identificación empírica. En este trabajo se muestra que la elección entre definiciones específicas de reversión de la cuenta corriente usualmente utilizadas en la literatura modifica tanto el momento del tiempo en que se detecta la reversión, como el número de eventos en el período bajo estudio. Para mostrar de qué manera la definición afecta la identificación de las variables que causan la reversión, se estima un modelo probit de efectos aleatorios con tres definiciones alternativas y se comparan sus resultados

Gas-phase formation and isomerization reactions of cyanoacetaldehyde, a prebiotic molecule of astrochemical interest

Cyanoacetaldehyde (NC-CH2CH=O) is considered, together with guanidine and urea, as a precursor of the pyrimidine bases cytosine and uracil. Although it has not yet been detected in the interstellar medium (ISM), several hypotheses have been put forward about its synthesis in solution and in the gas phase. In this paper, we present a gas-phase model of the barrierless reaction between formyl (HCO) and cyanomethyl (CH2CN) radicals leading to cyanoacetaldehyde and focus on its evolution through isomerization and dissociation pathways. The potential-energy surface for all reactions has been explored by DFT calculations employing double-hybrid functionals and further refined through the "Cheap" composite scheme. Our results indicate that the direct association of the two reacting radicals (HCO and CH2CN) is strongly exothermic and thus thermodynamically favored under the harsh conditions of the ISM. Microcanonical rate constants computed with the help of the StarRate program for energies up to 6 kJ mol(-)(1) above the dissociation limit show that the most abundant products are the two conformers of cyanoacetaldehyde (nitrile and carbonyl groups in a cis or trans configuration) which, despite having comparable stability, are obtained with a cis/trans ratio of 0.35:0.65. The formation of other products with relative abundances not exceeding 10% is also discussed

Rising commodity prices and welfare in Brazil. A short-run analysis using a SAM price model

During the 2000's, and from a macro perspective, Brazil benefited greatlybecause the increasing prices of agricultural commodities in world markets, as well as the price of oil and other primary commodities, which the country exports intensively. However, because the impacts these commodities might have on consumer prices, it is possible to envisage redistributive effects. We model the responses of consumer and factor prices using a Social Accounting Matrix model, which can be adapted to develop a price model that captures theinterdependences among activities, households, and factors. An advantage of theproposed methodology is, among others, that it allows us to estimates a full set of effects, including changes in government transfers and payments by social security. The results show that following an increase in the international prices of primary commodities, the responses of internal prices, of goods and factors, mean a welfare loss over the entire household per capita expenditure distribution, with those in the middle being the least affected. However, the differences among households are not very important. Inequality indices show little responsiveness to the simulated shocks.http://www.bcu.gub.uy/Comunicaciones/Paginas/JAE-2017.aspxFil: Moncarz, Pedro Esteban. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; Argentina.Fil: Moncarz, Pedro Esteban. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina.Fil: Barone, Sergio. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; Argentina.Fil: Descalzi, Ricardo Luis. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; ArgentinaEconomía, Econometrí

"Cold training" affects rat liver responses to continuous cold exposure.

Continuous exposure of homeothermic animals to low environmental temperatures elicits physiological adaptations necessary for animal survival, which are associated to higher generation of pro-oxidants in thermogenic tissues. It is not known whether intermittent cold exposure (cold training) is able to affect tissue responses to continuous cold exposure. Therefore, we investigated whether rat liver responses to continuous cold exposure of 2 days are modified by cold training (1h daily for 5 days per week for 3 consecutive weeks). Continuous cold increased liver oxidative metabolism by increasing tissue content of mitochondrial proteins and mitochondrial aerobic capacity. Cold training did not affect such parameters, but attenuated or prevented the changes elicited by continuous cold exposure. Two-day cold exposure increased lipid hydroperoxide and protein-bound carbonyl levels in homogenates and mitochondria, whereas cold training decreased such effects although it decreased only homogenate protein damage in control rats. The activities of the antioxidant enzymes GPX and GR and H2O2 production were increased by continuous cold exposure. Despite the increase in GPX and GR activities, livers from cold-exposed rats showed increased susceptibility to in vitro oxidative challenge. Such cold effects were decreased by cold training, which in control rats reduced only H2O2 production and susceptibility to stress. The changes of PGC-1, NRF-1, and NRF-2 expression levels were consistent with those induced by cold exposure and cold training in mitochondrial protein content and antioxidant enzyme activities. However, the mechanisms by which cold training attenuates the effects of the continuous cold exposure remain to be elucidated

Competition between abstraction and addition channels for the reaction between the OH radical and vinyl alcohol in the interstellar medium

Vinyl alcohol (Vy) and hydroxyl radical (OH) are involved in several processes, which take place in environments characterized by very different physical–chemical conditions, ranging from the low pressures and temperatures typical of the interstellar medium (ISM) up to the high temperatures of interest for combustion processes. A gas-phase reaction mechanism involving Vy and OH has been proposed as a possible path for the formation of (Z)-1,2-ethenediol (Et), a molecule recently identified in the ISM. Et, the enolic form of glycolaldehyde, is considered a key precursor for the formation of sugars in both interstellar and prebiotic chemistry. We have therefore undertaken a detailed quantum chemical study of possible reaction channels starting from the interaction between the OH radical and both conformers of Vy (syn and anti). The formation of a prereactive complex always represents the first step of the reaction, which can then proceed through the attack to the C═C double bond (leading in turn to the formation of different dissociation products) or through hydrogen abstraction, which eventually produces a radical species and water. Then, a master equation approach based on ab initio transition state theory has been employed to calculate the reaction rate constants of different products for temperatures up to 500 K. A comparison of the kinetic results for the different reaction channels shows that hydrogen abstraction is strongly favored for both Vy conformers and leads to the formation of water and CH2CHO radical. As a matter of fact, formation of Et is strongly disfavored under the harsh conditions of the ISM from both kinetic and thermodynamic points of view because of the high activation energy and strong endothermicity of the corresponding reaction path

Design of a real-time hidden markov model state decoding system

Hidden Markov Models are used in different kinds of sequence recognition problems. Specially, Hidden Markov Models are suited for speech/speaker recognition systems. Due to the complexity of the algorithms involved, general-purpose computing solutions are typically significantly slower than real time. For many applications, however, real-time is essential and thus a system based in specific purpose hardware becomes necessary. For the probability computation in pattern recognition systems using Hidden Markov Models, a state decoding system is necessary. The state decoding system must be able to decide, based on the input sequence, which is the most probable state sequence that produces the input sequence and therefore the reference pattern which best matches with the input pattern. In this work, the implementation of a real-time Hidden Markov Model state decoding system is described. The prototype was implemented for left-right Markov Models.Eje: Agentes inteligentesRed de Universidades con Carreras en Informática (RedUNCI