546 research outputs found

    A frequentist framework of inductive reasoning

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    Reacting against the limitation of statistics to decision procedures, R. A. Fisher proposed for inductive reasoning the use of the fiducial distribution, a parameter-space distribution of epistemological probability transferred directly from limiting relative frequencies rather than computed according to the Bayes update rule. The proposal is developed as follows using the confidence measure of a scalar parameter of interest. (With the restriction to one-dimensional parameter space, a confidence measure is essentially a fiducial probability distribution free of complications involving ancillary statistics.) A betting game establishes a sense in which confidence measures are the only reliable inferential probability distributions. The equality between the probabilities encoded in a confidence measure and the coverage rates of the corresponding confidence intervals ensures that the measure's rule for assigning confidence levels to hypotheses is uniquely minimax in the game. Although a confidence measure can be computed without any prior distribution, previous knowledge can be incorporated into confidence-based reasoning. To adjust a p-value or confidence interval for prior information, the confidence measure from the observed data can be combined with one or more independent confidence measures representing previous agent opinion. (The former confidence measure may correspond to a posterior distribution with frequentist matching of coverage probabilities.) The representation of subjective knowledge in terms of confidence measures rather than prior probability distributions preserves approximate frequentist validity.Comment: major revisio

    Use of a Semi-field System to Evaluate the Efficacy of Topical Repellents under user Conditions Provides a Disease Exposure free Technique Comparable with Field Data.

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    Before topical repellents can be employed as interventions against arthropod bites, their efficacy must be established. Currently, laboratory or field tests, using human volunteers, are the main methods used for assessing the efficacy of topical repellents. However, laboratory tests are not representative of real life conditions under which repellents are used and field-testing potentially exposes human volunteers to disease. There is, therefore, a need to develop methods to test efficacy of repellents under real life conditions while minimizing volunteer exposure to disease. A lotion-based, 15% N, N-Diethyl-3-methylbenzamide (DEET) repellent and 15% DEET in ethanol were compared to a placebo lotion in a 200 sq m (10 m x 20 m) semi-field system (SFS) against laboratory-reared Anopheles arabiensis mosquitoes and in full field settings against wild malaria vectors and nuisance-biting mosquitoes. The average percentage protection against biting mosquitoes over four hours in the SFS and field setting was determined. A Poisson regression model was then used to determine relative risk of being bitten when wearing either of these repellents compared to the placebo. Average percentage protection of the lotion-based 15% DEET repellent after four hours of mosquito collection was 82.13% (95% CI 75.94-88.82) in the semi-field experiments and 85.10% (95% CI 78.97-91.70) in the field experiments. Average percentage protection of 15% DEET in ethanol after four hours was 71.29% (CI 61.77-82.28) in the semi-field system and 88.24% (84.45-92.20) in the field. Semi-field evaluation results were comparable to full-field evaluations, indicating that such systems could be satisfactorily used in measuring efficacy of topically applied mosquito repellents, thereby avoiding risks of exposure to mosquito-borne pathogens, associated with field testing

    Abundance estimation of Ixodes ticks (Acari: Ixodidae) on roe deer (Capreolus capreolus)

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    Despite the importance of roe deer as a host for Ixodes ticks in central Europe, estimates of total tick burden on roe deer are not available to date. We aimed at providing (1) estimates of life stage and sex specific (larvae, nymphs, males and females, hereafter referred to as tick life stages) total Ixodes burden and (2) equations which can be used to predict the total life stage burden by counting the life stage on a selected body area. Within a period of 1½ years, we conducted whole body counts of ticks from 80 hunter-killed roe deer originating from a beech dominated forest area in central Germany. Averaged over the entire study period (winter 2007–summer 2009), the mean tick burden per roe deer was 64.5 (SE ± 10.6). Nymphs were the most numerous tick life stage per roe deer (23.9 ± 3.2), followed by females (21.4 ± 3.5), larvae (10.8 ± 4.2) and males (8.4 ± 1.5). The individual tick burden was highly aggregated (k = 0.46); levels of aggregation were highest in larvae (k = 0.08), followed by males (k = 0.40), females (k = 0.49) and nymphs (k = 0.71). To predict total life stage specific burdens based on counts on selected body parts, we provide linear equations. For estimating larvae abundance on the entire roe deer, counts can be restricted to the front legs. Tick counts restricted to the head are sufficient to estimate total nymph burden and counts on the neck are appropriate for estimating adult ticks (females and males). In order to estimate the combined tick burden, tick counts on the head can be used for extrapolation. The presented linear models are highly significant and explain 84.1, 77.3, 90.5, 91.3, and 65.3% (adjusted R2) of the observed variance, respectively. Thus, these models offer a robust basis for rapid tick abundance assessment. This can be useful for studies aiming at estimating effects of abiotic and biotic factors on tick abundance, modelling tick population dynamics, modelling tick-borne pathogen transmission dynamics or assessing the efficacy of acaricides

    Serpin Induced Antiviral Activity of Prostaglandin Synthetase-2 against HIV-1 Replication

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    The serine protease inhibitors (serpins) are anti-inflammatory proteins that have various functions. By screening a diverse panel of viruses, we demonstrate that the serpin antithrombin III (ATIII) has a broad-spectrum anti-viral activity for HIV-1, HCV and HSV. To investigate the mechanism of action in more detail we investigated the HIV-1 inhibition. Using gene-expression arrays we found that multiple host cell signal transduction pathways were activated by ATIII in HIV-1 infected cells but not in uninfected controls. Moreover, the signal pathways initiated by ATIII treatment, were more than 200-fold increased by the use of heparin-activated ATIII. The most up-regulated transcript in HIV-1 infected cells was prostaglandin synthetase-2 (PTGS2). Furthermore, we found that over-expression of PTGS2 reduced levels of HIV-1 replication in human PBMC. These findings suggest a central role for serpins in the host innate anti-viral response. Host factors such as PTGS2 elicited by ATIII treatment could be exploited in the development of novel anti-viral interventions

    Attachment site selection of ticks on roe deer, Capreolus capreolus

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    The spatio-temporal attachment site patterns of ticks feeding on their hosts can be of significance if co-feeding transmission (i.e. from tick to tick without a systemic infection of the host) of pathogens affects the persistence of a given disease. Using tick infestation data on roe deer, we analysed preferred attachment sites and niche width of Ixodes ticks (larvae, nymphs, males, females) and investigated the degree of inter- and intrastadial aggregation. The different development stages showed rather consistent attachment site patterns and relative narrow feeding site niches. Larvae were mostly found on the head and on the front legs of roe deer, nymphs reached highest densities on the head and highest adult densities were found on the neck of roe deer. The tick stages feeding (larvae, nymphs, females) on roe deer showed high degrees of intrastadial spatial aggregation, whereas males did not. Male ticks showed large feeding site overlap with female ticks. Feeding site overlap between larval-female and larval-nymphal ticks did occur especially during the months May–August on the head and front legs of roe deer and might allow pathogen transmission via co-feeding. Tick density, niche width and niche overlap on roe deer are mainly affected by seasonality, reflecting seasonal activity and abundance patterns of ticks. Since different tick development stages occur spatially and temporally clustered on roe deer, transmission experiments of tick-borne pathogens are urgently needed

    Developing a matrix to identify and prioritise research recommendations in HIV Prevention

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    BACKGROUND: HIV prevention continues to be problematic in the UK, as it does globally. The UK Department of Health has a strategic direction with greater focus on prevention as part of its World Class Commissioning Programme. There is a need for targeted evidence-based prevention initiatives. This is an exploratory study to develop an evidence mapping tool in the form of a matrix: this will be used to identify important gaps in contemporary HIV prevention evidence relevant to the UK. It has the potential to aid prioritisation in future research.METHODS: Categories for prevention and risk groups were developed for HIV prevention in consultation with external experts. These were used as axes on a matrix tool to map evidence. Systematic searches for publications on HIV prevention were undertaken using electronic databases for primary and secondary research undertaken mainly in UK, USA, Canada, Australia and New Zealand, 2006-9. Each publication was screened for inclusion then coded. The risk groups and prevention areas in each paper were counted: several publications addressed multiple risk groups. The counts were exported to the matrix and clearly illustrate the concentrations and gaps of literature in HIV prevention.RESULTS: 716 systematic reviews, randomised control trials and other primary research met the inclusion criteria for HIV prevention. The matrix identified several under researched areas in HIV prevention.CONCLUSIONS: This is the first categorisation system for HIV prevention and the matrix is a novel tool for evidence mapping. Some important yet under-researched areas have been identified in HIV prevention evidence: identifying the undiagnosed population; international adaptation; education; intervention combinations; transgender; sex-workers; heterosexuals and older age groups.<br/

    Investigation of Gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA) A receptors genes and migraine susceptibility

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    Background Migraine is a neurological disorder characterized by recurrent attacks of severe headache, affecting around 12% of Caucasian populations. It is well known that migraine has a strong genetic component, although the number and type of genes involved is still unclear. Prior linkage studies have reported mapping of a migraine gene to chromosome Xq 24–28, a region containing a cluster of genes for GABA A receptors (GABRE, GABRA3, GABRQ), which are potential candidate genes for migraine. The GABA neurotransmitter has been implicated in migraine pathophysiology previously; however its exact role has not yet been established, although GABA receptors agonists have been the target of therapeutic developments. The aim of the present research is to investigate the role of the potential candidate genes reported on chromosome Xq 24–28 region in migraine susceptibility. In this study, we have focused on the subunit GABA A receptors type ε (GABRE) and type θ (GABRQ) genes and their involvement in migraine. Methods We have performed an association analysis in a large population of case-controls (275 unrelated Caucasian migraineurs versus 275 controls) examining a set of 3 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the coding region (exons 3, 5 and 9) of the GABRE gene and also the I478F coding variant of the GABRQ gene. Results Our study did not show any association between the examined SNPs in our test population (P > 0.05). Conclusion Although these particular GABA receptor genes did not show positive association, further studies are necessary to consider the role of other GABA receptor genes in migraine susceptibility
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