Four degrees of global warming: Australia in a hot world. Edited by Peter Christoff. Abingdon and New York: Routledge, 2014, 268 pages, paperback, ISBN 9780415824583

Book ReviewDouglas K Bardsle

Semivariogram methods for modeling Whittle-Mat\'ern priors in Bayesian inverse problems

We present a new technique, based on semivariogram methodology, for obtaining point estimates for use in prior modeling for solving Bayesian inverse problems. This method requires a connection between Gaussian processes with covariance operators defined by the Mat\'ern covariance function and Gaussian processes with precision (inverse-covariance) operators defined by the Green's functions of a class of elliptic stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs). We present a detailed mathematical description of this connection. We will show that there is an equivalence between these two Gaussian processes when the domain is infinite -- for us, $\mathbb{R}^2$ -- which breaks down when the domain is finite due to the effect of boundary conditions on Green's functions of PDEs. We show how this connection can be re-established using extended domains. We then introduce the semivariogram method for estimating the Mat\'ern covariance parameters, which specify the Gaussian prior needed for stabilizing the inverse problem. Results are extended from the isotropic case to the anisotropic case where the correlation length in one direction is larger than another. Finally, we consider the situation where the correlation length is spatially dependent rather than constant. We implement each method in two-dimensional image inpainting test cases to show that it works on practical examples

Why did Titan come to a tragic end in the depths of the North Atlantic?

Why did Titan come to a tragic end in the depths of the North Atlantic? The submersible's unique design had not been certified by independent experts. When it was announced on Thursday that debris had been found in the search for the Titan submersible, it extinguished any lingering hope that the five men on board could be rescued. But the realisation that the craft almost certainly experienced a catastrophic failure on its mission to view the wreck of the Titanic, located 3,800 metres below the surface of the North Atlantic Ocean, raised as many questions as it answered. In particular, what caused this vessel to apparently implode, likely killing everyone instantly? And should the company that owned the vessel have sent paying passengers to the ocean’s depths in a craft that did not appear to have been subject to rigorous independent testing? The tube was an issue. That puts a lot of stress on the tube part made of carbon fibre Jasper Graham-Jones, University of Plymouth That the wreckage of Titan was found a few days after it went missing on Sunday is an achievement in itself, considering that several missions, albeit using less modern equipment and searching over a larger area, failed to find the Titanic itself before the wreck was located in 1985

Regional agricultural governance in peri-urban and rural South Australia: strategies to improve multifunctionality

Historically, agricultural policy in Australia has focused on maximising the economic productivity and efficiency of the sector. The issues that have arisen from this governance focus are manyfold. In this study, we illustrate the regional disparity and implications for agricultural sustainability caused by such a policy model. We surveyed farmers in two South Australian case study regions, the adjoining peri-urban Barossa-Light region, and the rural area of Loxton. It was found that respondents from Loxton had larger properties, saw more benefits from government support for agriculture, and were more likely to prioritise support for their local community and increases in productivity. Respondents from Barossa-Light were more concerned about risks of urban encroachment, prioritised keeping their farms in their families, and were generally more concerned about government support. These results highlight the complexity involved with applying appropriate government support mechanisms across a diverse industry such as agriculture, with various regional sustainability issues driving respondent priorities. We also suggest that regional variation will require explicit planning which aims for heterogeneous goals and that educational and cooperative pursuits may help to increase the capacity of the land managers in the case study regions. These suggestions have broader implications for other regions where agricultural diversity complicates policy to support the industry within historically productivist agricultural regimes.Simon J. Fielke, Douglas K. Bardsle

Brokerage at the science–policy interface: from conceptual framework to practical guidance

This article analyses the conceptual framework of brokerage at the science–policy interface as an important boundary function to support trusted and transparent government decision-making. Policymaking involves a broad range of considerations, but science advice and evidence is critical to help inform decisions. However, mechanisms for requesting and receiving advice from the scientific community are not straightforward, considering that the knowledge needed generally spans multiple disciplines of the natural and social sciences. Once evidence has been appropriately synthesized, there remains the need to ensure an effective and unbiased translation to the policy and political community. The concept of knowledge brokerage revolves around an understanding of the ontologies, cultures and languages of both the policy community and the science community, in order to effectively link the two bidirectionally. In practical terms, this means ensuring that the information needs of the former are understood, and that the type and form of information offered by the latter aligns with those needs. Ideally, knowledge brokers act at the interface between researchers/experts and decision-makers to present evidence in a way that informs policy options but does not determine policy development. Conceptually, negotiating this interface involves acknowledging that values are embedded in the scientific process and evidentiary synthesis, and in particular, in considering the inferential risks inherent in making evidence claims. Brokers are faced with navigating complex policy dynamics and balancing information asymmetries between research providers and users. Building on the conceptual analysis and examination of the nuances of brokerage observed in practice, we propose a set of guidelines to translate the concepts of brokerage to practical application.publishedVersio

Limits to adaptation or a second modernity? Responses to climate change risk in the context of failing socio-ecosystems

There is a concerning fallacy at the heart of the debate on climate change adaptation—that adaptation will involve re-adjustments primarily on the periphery of functioning socio-ecological systems. Yet, dominant modern systems are already in crisis. Case study examples from research across global, continental and regional scales are used to argue that gaps between sustainability goals and outcomes are already significant. Analyses of global food security and lost diversity; human migration in Asia; and natural resource management systems in core and remote regions of Australia indicate that climate change forms only part of a failing relationship between people and the environment. There is a need to transform socio-ecosystems so that they become resilient in the context of broader learning on environmental uncertainty, variability, change and risk. Such transformations will occur both in situ, to ensure that local environments are not further degraded or people entrenched in failing systems, and ex situ, as people, systems and infrastructure become increasingly mobile to deal with changing circumstances.Douglas K. Bardsle

Too much, too young? Teachers' opinions of risk education in secondary school geography

Ecological and social risks are part of life on Earth, and yet they have increased during the late modern era due to environmental change and rising inequality. People who are well-educated are better able to plan for and respond to risk, both individually and collectively. Geography teachers’ perceptions are critically analysed to examine the contemporary approach to risk education. There can be drawbacks of focussing on risks, including the emphasis on negative futures that could dissuade students from engaging with relevant issues. However, a range of advantages of risk education include: engagement with important issues and concepts; learning about practical responses to relevant risks; higher order inquiry-based learning into societal issues; supporting resilience in students; and assistance with personal and democratic decision-making. The teachers’ narratives on risk education are used to frame a critical discussion on the roles of the formal education system to prepare students for uncertain futures. The teachers recognised the need for more risk education to prepare students for a second modernity, but cautioned that teaching and learning approaches must focus on appropriate, relevant issues to provide opportunities to imagine and enact hopeful futures.Douglas K. Bardsle

The roles of agricultural biodiversity in the McLaren Vale landscape

Douglas K. Bardsley, Elisa Palazzo, Nathanael D. Wiseman, and Randy Stringe

Social-ecological vulnerability to climate change in the Nepali Himalaya

Abstract not availableRishikesh Pandey, Douglas K. Bardsle