Towards a unified framework for extreme sea waves from spectral models: rationale and applications

Reliable predictions of oceanic waves during storms have always been foremost for offshore design and operation, coastal hazards, and navigation safety. Indeed, many accidents that occurred during storms were ascribed to the impact with unforeseen large waves. In this context, the purpose of this study is to improve the present state extreme wave estimate from spectral wave models. We describe an implementation for the WAM model, and we investigate the use of WAM and WAVEWATCH III fed with common routines designed to evaluate the short-term/range maximum wave statistics. An extensive assessment of models' results in the Adriatic and North Sea is performed using time and space-time wave measurements, and through an intercomparison between WAM and WAVEWATCH III applied with three different input/dissipation source term parametrizations (ST3/4/6). Further, models’ capabilities are investigated, and extreme waves characterized, in the Mediterranean Sea, aiming also at disentangling the wave spectrum bulk parameters that may point to favorable conditions for the generation of high waves. Based on the comparisons between model results and measurements, we conclude that for the model characterization of extremes, the accuracy of the significant wave height is pivotal; differences between models of other spectral parameters seem to have a minor effect

Sex differences in clinical phenotype and transitions of care among individuals dying of COVID-19 in Italy

Background: Among the unknowns posed by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, the role of biological sex to explain disease susceptibility and progression is still a matter of debate, with limited sex-disaggregated data available. Methods: A retrospective analysis was performed to assess if sex differences exist in the clinical manifestations and transitions of care among hospitalized individuals dying with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection in Italy (February 27–June 11, 2020). Clinical characteristics and the times from symptoms’ onset to admission, nasopharyngeal swab, and death were compared between sexes. Adjusted multivariate analysis was performed to identify the clinical features associated with male sex. Results: Of the 32,938 COVID-19-related deaths that occurred in Italy, 3517 hospitalized and deceased individuals with COVID-19 (mean 78 ± 12 years, 33% women) were analyzed. At admission, men had a higher prevalence of ischemic heart disease (adj-OR = 1.76, 95% CI 1.39–2.23), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (adj-OR = 1.7, 95% CI 1.29–2.27), and chronic kidney disease (adj-OR = 1.48, 95% CI 1.13–1.96), while women were older and more likely to have dementia (adj-OR = 0.73, 95% CI 0.55–0.95) and autoimmune diseases (adj-OR = 0.40, 95% CI 0.25–0.63), yet both sexes had a high level of multimorbidity. The times from symptoms’ onset to admission and nasopharyngeal swab were slightly longer in men despite a typical acute respiratory illness with more frequent fever at the onset. Men received more often experimental therapy (adj-OR = 2.89, 95% CI 1.45–5.74) and experienced more likely acute kidney injury (adj-OR = 1.47, 95% CI 1.13–1.90). Conclusions: Men and women dying with COVID-19 had different clinical manifestations and transitions of care. Identifying sex-specific features in individuals with COVID-19 and fatal outcome might inform preventive strategies

Differences in the clinical characteristics of COVID-19 patients who died in hospital during different phases of the pandemic: national data from Italy

Background: Epidemiological data obtained during the initial wave of the COVID-19 epidemic showed that persons dying with COVID-19 were typically older men with multiple chronic conditions. No studies have assessed if the characteristics of patients dying with COVID-19 have changed in the second phase of the epidemic, when the initial wave subsided. The aim of the present study was to compare characteristics of patients dying with COVID-19 in Italy in the first ‘peak’ phase of the epidemic and in its second phase. Methods: Medical charts of patients with COVID-19 who died while in hospital in Italy were reviewed to extract information on pre-existing comorbidities, in-hospital complications, and disease trajectories. The course of the epidemic was classified in two 3-month periods: March–May 2020 and June–August 2020. Findings: Overall, in the Italian population, 34,191 COVID-19 deaths occurred in March–May 2020 and 1,404 in June–August 2020. Patients dying in March–May were significantly younger (80.1 ± 10.6 vs. 82.8 ± 11.1 years, p < 0.001) and less frequently female (41.9% vs. 61.8%, p < 0.001) than those dying in June–August. The medical charts of 3533 patients who died with PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection in March–May 2020 (10.3% of all deaths occurring in this period) and 203 patients who died in June–August 2020 (14.5% of all deaths occurring in this period) were analysed. Patients who died in March–May 2020, compared to those who died in June–August 2020, had significantly lower rates of multiple comorbidities (3 or more comorbidities: 61.8% vs 74.5%, p = 0.001) and superinfections (15.2% vs. 52.5%, p < 0.001). Treatment patterns also substantially differed in the two study periods, with patients dying in March–May 2020 being less likely to be treated with steroids (41.7% vs. 69.3%, p < 0.001) and more likely to receive antivirals (59.3% vs. 41.4%, p < 0.001). Survival time also largely differed, with patients dying in March–May 2020 showing a shorter time from symptoms onset to death (mean interval: 15.0 vs. 46.6 days, p < 0.001). The differences observed between the two periods remained significant in a multivariate analysis. Interpretation: The clinical characteristics of patients dying with COVID-19 in Italy, their treatment and symptom-to-death survival time have significantly changed overtime. This is probably due to an improved organization and delivery of care and to a better knowledge of disease treatment