27 research outputs found
Parameterization of rainfall-runoff models by using utility functions
Tradizionalmente, l'obiettivo della calibrazione di un modello afflussi-deflussi è sempre stato quello di ottenere un set di parametri (o una distribuzione di probabilità dei parametri) che massimizzasse l'adattamento dei dati simulati alla realtà osservata, trattando parzialmente le finalità applicative del modello.
Nel lavoro di tesi viene proposta una metodologia di calibrazione che trae spunto dell'evidenza che non sempre la corrispondenza tra dati osservati e simulati rappresenti il criterio più appropriato per calibrare un modello idrologico. Ai fini applicativi infatti, può risultare maggiormente utile una miglior rappresentazione di un determinato aspetto dell'idrogramma piuttosto che un altro.
Il metodo di calibrazione che viene proposto mira a valutare le prestazioni del modello stimandone l'utilità nell'applicazione prevista. Tramite l'utilizzo di opportune funzioni, ad ogni passo temporale viene valutata l'utilità della simulazione ottenuta. La calibrazione viene quindi eseguita attraverso la massimizzazione di una funzione obiettivo costituita dalla somma delle utilità stimate nei singoli passi temporali.
Le analisi mostrano come attraverso l'impiego di tali funzioni obiettivo sia possibile migliorare le prestazioni del modello laddove ritenute di maggior interesse per per le finalità applicative previste.In the majority of rainfall-runoff modelling applications, the objective function to be minimised in the parameterisation procedure is
based on a measure of the goodness-of-fit that maximized the fit of the simulated data to the overall observed data, taking partially into account the specific model applications.
The present dissertation focuses on the development and testing of an objective function based on the expected utility of the rainfall-runoff model.
The method is based on the evidence that the performances of a hydrological model closely depend on the purpose of the application. For istance, the simulated data caught have different utility in a water resources management system or in a flood forecasting system.
In the proposed method, at each time step, the comparison between simulated and observed data is carried out by using an “ad-hoc” utility function. The calibration is performed by maximizing the overall estimated utility of the simulated data. Different utility functions are tested and the results are compared against those obtained with traditional procedure.
The results reveal that an adequate utility function allows an improvement of the model performances in the reproduction of the discharges considered most important to the purpose of the modeling application
Panta Rhei: an evolving scientific decade with a focus on water systems
Abstract. The paper presents an overview of the activity of Panta Rhei, the research decade launched in 2013 by the International Association of Hydrological Sciences. After one year of activity Panta Rhei has already stimulated several initiatives and a worldwide involvement of researchers in hydrology and sister disciplines. Providing an overview of the status of Panta Rhei is essential to further promote the participation of scientists and the completion of its structure, which is currently being shaped by receiving Research Theme and Working Group proposals from the community
An explainable model of host genetic interactions linked to COVID-19 severity
We employed a multifaceted computational strategy to identify the genetic factors contributing to increased risk of severe COVID-19 infection from a Whole Exome Sequencing (WES) dataset of a cohort of 2000 Italian patients. We coupled a stratified k-fold screening, to rank variants more associated with severity, with the training of multiple supervised classifiers, to predict severity based on screened features. Feature importance analysis from tree-based models allowed us to identify 16 variants with the highest support which, together with age and gender covariates, were found to be most predictive of COVID-19 severity. When tested on a follow-up cohort, our ensemble of models predicted severity with high accuracy (ACC = 81.88%; AUCROC = 96%; MCC = 61.55%). Our model recapitulated a vast literature of emerging molecular mechanisms and genetic factors linked to COVID-19 response and extends previous landmark Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS). It revealed a network of interplaying genetic signatures converging on established immune system and inflammatory processes linked to viral infection response. It also identified additional processes cross-talking with immune pathways, such as GPCR signaling, which might offer additional opportunities for therapeutic intervention and patient stratification. Publicly available PheWAS datasets revealed that several variants were significantly associated with phenotypic traits such as "Respiratory or thoracic disease", supporting their link with COVID-19 severity outcome.A multifaceted computational strategy identifies 16 genetic variants contributing to increased risk of severe COVID-19 infection from a Whole Exome Sequencing dataset of a cohort of Italian patients
Carriers of ADAMTS13 Rare Variants Are at High Risk of Life-Threatening COVID-19
Thrombosis of small and large vessels is reported as a key player in COVID-19 severity. However, host genetic determinants of this susceptibility are still unclear. Congenital Thrombotic Thrombocytopenic Purpura is a severe autosomal recessive disorder characterized by uncleaved ultra-large vWF and thrombotic microangiopathy, frequently triggered by infections. Carriers are reported to be asymptomatic. Exome analysis of about 3000 SARS-CoV-2 infected subjects of different severities, belonging to the GEN-COVID cohort, revealed the specific role of vWF cleaving enzyme ADAMTS13 (A disintegrin-like and metalloprotease with thrombospondin type 1 motif, 13). We report here that ultra-rare variants in a heterozygous state lead to a rare form of COVID-19 characterized by hyper-inflammation signs, which segregates in families as an autosomal dominant disorder conditioned by SARS-CoV-2 infection, sex, and age. This has clinical relevance due to the availability of drugs such as Caplacizumab, which inhibits vWF-platelet interaction, and Crizanlizumab, which, by inhibiting P-selectin binding to its ligands, prevents leukocyte recruitment and platelet aggregation at the site of vascular damage
Gain- and Loss-of-Function CFTR Alleles Are Associated with COVID-19 Clinical Outcomes
Carriers of single pathogenic variants of the CFTR (cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator) gene have a higher risk of severe COVID-19 and 14-day death. The machine learning post-Mendelian model pinpointed CFTR as a bidirectional modulator of COVID-19 outcomes. Here, we demonstrate that the rare complex allele [G576V;R668C] is associated with a milder disease via a gain-of-function mechanism. Conversely, CFTR ultra-rare alleles with reduced function are associated with disease severity either alone (dominant disorder) or with another hypomorphic allele in the second chromosome (recessive disorder) with a global residual CFTR activity between 50 to 91%. Furthermore, we characterized novel CFTR complex alleles, including [A238V;F508del], [R74W;D1270N;V201M], [I1027T;F508del], [I506V;D1168G], and simple alleles, including R347C, F1052V, Y625N, I328V, K68E, A309D, A252T, G542*, V562I, R1066H, I506V, I807M, which lead to a reduced CFTR function and thus, to more severe COVID-19. In conclusion, CFTR genetic analysis is an important tool in identifying patients at risk of severe COVID-19
A genome-wide association study for survival from a multi-centre European study identified variants associated with COVID-19 risk of death
: The clinical manifestations of SARS-CoV-2 infection vary widely among patients, from asymptomatic to life-threatening. Host genetics is one of the factors that contributes to this variability as previously reported by the COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative (HGI), which identified sixteen loci associated with COVID-19 severity. Herein, we investigated the genetic determinants of COVID-19 mortality, by performing a case-only genome-wide survival analysis, 60 days after infection, of 3904 COVID-19 patients from the GEN-COVID and other European series (EGAS00001005304 study of the COVID-19 HGI). Using imputed genotype data, we carried out a survival analysis using the Cox model adjusted for age, age2, sex, series, time of infection, and the first ten principal components. We observed a genome-wide significant (P-value < 5.0 × 10-8) association of the rs117011822 variant, on chromosome 11, of rs7208524 on chromosome 17, approaching the genome-wide threshold (P-value = 5.19 × 10-8). A total of 113 variants were associated with survival at P-value < 1.0 × 10-5 and most of them regulated the expression of genes involved in immune response (e.g., CD300 and KLR genes), or in lung repair and function (e.g., FGF19 and CDH13). Overall, our results suggest that germline variants may modulate COVID-19 risk of death, possibly through the regulation of gene expression in immune response and lung function pathways
Pathogen-sugar interactions revealed by universal saturation transfer analysis
Many pathogens exploit host cell-surface glycans. However, precise analyses of glycan ligands binding with heavily modified pathogen proteins can be confounded by overlapping sugar signals and/or compounded with known experimental constraints. Universal saturation transfer analysis (uSTA) builds on existing nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy to provide an automated workflow for quantitating protein-ligand interactions. uSTA reveals that early-pandemic, B-origin-lineage severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spike trimer binds sialoside sugars in an “end-on” manner. uSTA-guided modeling and a high-resolution cryo–electron microscopy structure implicate the spike N-terminal domain (NTD) and confirm end-on binding. This finding rationalizes the effect of NTD mutations that abolish sugar binding in SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern. Together with genetic variance analyses in early pandemic patient cohorts, this binding implicates a sialylated polylactosamine motif found on tetraantennary N-linked glycoproteins deep in the human lung as potentially relevant to virulence and/or zoonosis
The polymorphism L412F in TLR3 inhibits autophagy and is a marker of severe COVID-19 in males
The polymorphism L412F in TLR3 has been associated with several infectious diseases. However, the mechanism underlying this association is still unexplored. Here, we show that the L412F polymorphism in TLR3 is a marker of severity in COVID-19. This association increases in the sub-cohort of males. Impaired macroautophagy/autophagy and reduced TNF/TNFα production was demonstrated in HEK293 cells transfected with TLR3L412F-encoding plasmid and stimulated with specific agonist poly(I:C). A statistically significant reduced survival at 28 days was shown in L412F COVID-19 patients treated with the autophagy-inhibitor hydroxychloroquine (p = 0.038). An increased frequency of autoimmune disorders such as co-morbidity was found in L412F COVID-19 males with specific class II HLA haplotypes prone to autoantigen presentation. Our analyses indicate that L412F polymorphism makes males at risk of severe COVID-19 and provides a rationale for reinterpreting clinical trials considering autophagy pathways. Abbreviations: AP: autophagosome; AUC: area under the curve; BafA1: bafilomycin A1; COVID-19: coronavirus disease-2019; HCQ: hydroxychloroquine; RAP: rapamycin; ROC: receiver operating characteristic; SARS-CoV-2: severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; TLR: toll like receptor; TNF/TNF-α: tumor necrosis factor
SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility and COVID-19 disease severity are associated with genetic variants affecting gene expression in a variety of tissues
Variability in SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility and COVID-19 disease severity between individuals is partly due to
genetic factors. Here, we identify 4 genomic loci with suggestive associations for SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility
and 19 for COVID-19 disease severity. Four of these 23 loci likely have an ethnicity-specific component.
Genome-wide association study (GWAS) signals in 11 loci colocalize with expression quantitative trait loci
(eQTLs) associated with the expression of 20 genes in 62 tissues/cell types (range: 1:43 tissues/gene),
including lung, brain, heart, muscle, and skin as well as the digestive system and immune system. We perform
genetic fine mapping to compute 99% credible SNP sets, which identify 10 GWAS loci that have eight or fewer
SNPs in the credible set, including three loci with one single likely causal SNP. Our study suggests that the
diverse symptoms and disease severity of COVID-19 observed between individuals is associated with variants across the genome, affecting gene expression levels in a wide variety of tissue types