Accelerating Bayesian hierarchical clustering of time series data with a randomised algorithm

We live in an era of abundant data. This has necessitated the development of new and innovative statistical algorithms to get the most from experimental data. For example, faster algorithms make practical the analysis of larger genomic data sets, allowing us to extend the utility of cutting-edge statistical methods. We present a randomised algorithm that accelerates the clustering of time series data using the Bayesian Hierarchical Clustering (BHC) statistical method. BHC is a general method for clustering any discretely sampled time series data. In this paper we focus on a particular application to microarray gene expression data. We define and analyse the randomised algorithm, before presenting results on both synthetic and real biological data sets. We show that the randomised algorithm leads to substantial gains in speed with minimal loss in clustering quality. The randomised time series BHC algorithm is available as part of the R package BHC, which is available for download from Bioconductor (version 2.10 and above) via http://bioconductor.org/packages/2.10/bioc/html/BHC.html. We have also made available a set of R scripts which can be used to reproduce the analyses carried out in this paper. These are available from the following URL. https://sites.google.com/site/randomisedbhc/

Methodological challenges in measuring vaccine effectiveness using population cohorts in low resource settings.

Post-licensure real world evaluation of vaccine implementation is important for establishing evidence of vaccine effectiveness (VE) and programme impact, including indirect effects. Large cohort studies offer an important epidemiological approach for evaluating VE, but have inherent methodological challenges. Since March 2012, we have conducted an open prospective cohort study in two sites in rural Malawi to evaluate the post-introduction effectiveness of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) against all-cause post-neonatal infant mortality and monovalent rotavirus vaccine (RV1) against diarrhoea-related post-neonatal infant mortality. Our study sites cover a population of 500,000, with a baseline post-neonatal infant mortality of 25 per 1000 live births. We conducted a methodological review of cohort studies for vaccine effectiveness in a developing country setting, applied to our study context. Based on published literature, we outline key considerations when defining the denominator (study population), exposure (vaccination status) and outcome ascertainment (mortality and cause of death) of such studies. We assess various definitions in these three domains, in terms of their impact on power, effect size and potential biases and their direction, using our cohort study for illustration. Based on this iterative process, we discuss the pros and cons of our final per-protocol analysis plan. Since no single set of definitions or analytical approach accounts for all possible biases, we propose sensitivity analyses to interrogate our assumptions and methodological decisions. In the poorest regions of the world where routine vital birth and death surveillance are frequently unavailable and the burden of disease and death is greatest We conclude that provided the balance between definitions and their overall assumed impact on estimated VE are acknowledged, such large scale real-world cohort studies can provide crucial information to policymakers by providing robust and compelling evidence of total benefits of newly introduced vaccines on reducing child mortality

Nonsecretor Histo-blood Group Antigen Phenotype Is Associated With Reduced Risk of Clinical Rotavirus Vaccine Failure in Malawian Infants

Background Histo–blood group antigen (HBGA) Lewis/secretor phenotypes predict genotype-specific susceptibility to rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE). We tested the hypothesis that nonsecretor/Lewis-negative phenotype leads to reduced vaccine take and lower clinical protection following vaccination with G1P[8] rotavirus vaccine (RV1) in Malawian infants Methods A cohort study recruited infants receiving RV1 at age 6 and 10 weeks. HBGA phenotype was determined by salivary enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). RV1 vaccine virus shedding was detected by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) in stool collected on alternate days for 10 days post-immunization. Plasma rotavirus–specific immunoglobulin A was determined by ELISA pre- and post-immunization. In a case-control study, HBGA phenotype distribution was compared between RV1-vaccinated infants with RVGE and 1:1 age-matched community controls. Rotavirus genotype was determined by RT-PCR. Results In 202 cohort participants, neither overall vaccine virus fecal shedding nor seroconversion differed by HBGA phenotype. In 238 case-control infants, nonsecretor phenotype was less common in infants with clinical vaccine failure (odds ratio [OR], 0.39; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.20–0.75). Nonsecretor phenotype was less common in infants with P[8] RVGE (OR, 0.12; 95% CI, 0.03–0.50) and P[4] RVGE (OR, 0.17; 95% CI, 0.04–0.75). Lewis-negative phenotype was more common in infants with P[6] RVGE (OR, 3.2; 95% CI, 1.4–7.2). Conclusions Nonsecretor phenotype was associated with reduced risk of rotavirus vaccine failure. There was no significant association between HBGA phenotype and vaccine take. These data refute the hypothesis that high prevalence of nonsecretor/Lewis-negative phenotypes contributes to lower rotavirus vaccine effectiveness in Malawi

Emergence of Double- and Triple-Gene Reassortant G1P[8]Rotaviruses Possessing a DS-1-Like Backbone after RotavirusVaccine Introduction in Malawi

To combat the high burden of rotavirus gastroenteritis, multiple African countries have introduced rotavirus vaccines into their childhood immunisation programmes. Malawi incorporated a G1P[8] rotavirus vaccine (Rotarix™) into its immunisation schedule in 2012. Utilising a surveillance platform of hospitalised rotavirus gastroenteritis cases, we examined the phylodynamics of G1P[8] rotavirus strains that circulated in Malawi before (1998 - 2012) and after (2013 - 2014) vaccine introduction. Analysis of whole genomes obtained through next generation sequencing revealed that all randomly-selected pre-vaccine G1P[8] strains sequenced (n=32) possessed a Wa-like genetic constellation, whereas post-vaccine G1P[8] strains (n=18) had a DS-1-like constellation. Phylodynamic analyses indicated that post-vaccine G1P[8] strains emerged through reassortment events between human Wa- and DS-1-like rotaviruses that circulated in Malawi from the 1990's, hence classified as atypical DS-1-like reassortants. The time to the most recent common ancestor for G1P[8] strains was from 1981-1994; their evolutionary rates ranged from 9.7 x 10(-4)-4.1 x 10(-3) nucleotide/substitutions/site/year. Three distinct G1P[8] lineages chronologically replaced each other between 1998 and 2014. Genetic drift was the likely driver for lineage turnover in 2005, whereas replacement in 2013 was due to reassortment. Amino acid substitution within the outer glycoprotein VP7 of G1P[8] strains had no impact on the structural conformation of the antigenic regions, suggesting that it is unlikely that they would affect recognition by vaccine-induced neutralizing antibodies. While the emergence of DS-1-like G1P[8] rotavirus reassortants in Malawi was therefore likely due to natural genotype variation, vaccine effectiveness against such strains needs careful evaluation.ImportanceThe error-prone RNA-dependent RNA polymerase and the segmented RNA genome predispose rotaviruses to genetic mutation and genome reassortment, respectively. These evolutionary mechanisms generate novel strains and have the potential to lead to the emergence of vaccine-escape mutants. While multiple African countries have introduced rotavirus vaccine, there are few data describing the evolution of rotaviruses that circulated before and after vaccine introduction. We report the emergence of atypical DS-1-like G1P[8] strains during the post-vaccine era in Malawi. Three distinct G1P[8] lineages circulated chronologically from 1998-2014; mutation and reassortment drove lineage turnover in 2005 and 2013, respectively. Amino acid substitutions within the outer capsid VP7 glycoprotein did not affect the structural conformation of mapped antigenic sites, suggesting limited effect in recognition of G1 specific vaccine-derived antibodies. The genes that constitute the remaining genetic backbone may play important roles in immune evasion, and vaccine effectiveness against such atypical strains needs careful evaluation

Antigenic Complementarity in the Origins of Autoimmunity: A General Theory Illustrated With a Case Study of Idiopathic Thrombocytopenia Purpura

We describe a novel, testable theory of autoimmunity, outline novel predictions made by the theory, and illustrate its application to unravelling the possible causes of idiopathic thrombocytopenia purpura (ITP). Pairs of stereochemically complementary antigens induce complementary immune responses (antibody or T-cell) that create loss of regulation and civil war within the immune system itself. Antibodies attack antibodies creating circulating immune complexes; T-cells attack T-cells creating perivascular cuffing. This immunological civil war abrogates the self-nonself distinction. If at least one of the complementary antigens mimics a self antigen, then this unregulated immune response will target host tissues as well. Data demonstrating that complementary antigens are found in some animal models of autoimmunity and may be present in various human diseases, especially ITP, are reviewed. Specific mechanisms for preventing autoimmunity or suppressing existing autoimmunity are derived from the theory, and critical tests proposed. Finally, we argue that Koch's postulates are inadequate for establishing disease causation for multiple-antigen diseases and discuss the possibility that current research has failed to elucidate the causes of human autoimmune diseases because we are using the wrong criteria

Evaluation of Pneumococcal Serotyping of Nasopharyngeal-Carriage Isolates by Latex Agglutination, Whole-Genome Sequencing (PneumoCaT), and DNA Microarray in a High-Pneumococcal-Carriage-Prevalence Population in Malawi.

Accurate assessment of the serotype distribution associated with pneumococcal colonization and disease is essential for evaluating and formulating pneumococcal vaccines and for informing vaccine policy. For this reason, we evaluated the concordance between pneumococcal serotyping results by latex agglutination, whole-genome sequencing (WGS) with PneumoCaT, and DNA microarray for samples from community carriage surveillance in Blantyre, Malawi. Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected according to WHO recommendations between 2015 and 2017 by using stratified random sampling among study populations. Participants included healthy children 3 to 6 years old (vaccinated with the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine [PCV13] as part of the Expanded Program on Immunization [EPI]), healthy children 5 to 10 years old (age-ineligible for PCV13), and HIV-infected adults (18 to 40 years old) on antiretroviral therapy (ART). For phenotypic serotyping, we used a 13-valent latex kit (Statens Serum Institut [SSI], Denmark). For genomic serotyping, we applied the PneumoCaT pipeline to whole-genome sequence libraries. For molecular serotyping by microarray, we used the BUGS Bioscience Senti-SP microarray. A total of 1,347 samples were analyzed. Concordance was 90.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 89.0 to 92.2%) between latex agglutination and PneumoCaT, 95.2% (95% CI, 93.9 to 96.3%) between latex agglutination and the microarray, and 96.6% (95% CI, 95.5 to 97.5%) between the microarray and PneumoCaT. By detecting additional vaccine serotype (VT) pneumococci carried at low relative abundances (median, 8%), the microarray increased VT detection by 31.5% over that by latex serotyping. To conclude, all three serotyping methods were highly concordant in identifying dominant serotypes. Latex serotyping is accurate in identifying vaccine serotypes and requires the least expertise and resources for field implementation and analysis. However, WGS, which adds population structure, and microarray, which adds multiple-serotype carriage, should be considered at regional reference laboratories for investigating the importance of vaccine serotypes at low relative abundances in transmission and disease

Evaluation of pneumococcal serotyping in nasopharyngeal carriage isolates by latex agglutination, whole genome sequencing (PneumoCaT) and DNA microarray in a high pneumococcal carriage prevalence population in Malawi

BACKGROUND: Accurate assessment of the serotype distribution associated with pneumococcal colonization and disease is essential for the evaluation and formulation of pneumococcal vaccines and informing vaccine policy. METHODS: We evaluated pneumococcal serotyping concordance between latex agglutination, PneumoCaT by whole genome sequencing (WGS) and DNA microarray using samples from community carriage surveillance in Blantyre, Malawi. Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected, following WHO recommendations, between 2015 and 2017, using stratified random sampling among study populations. Participants included healthy children 3–6 years old (PCV13 vaccinated as part of EPI), healthy children 5–10 years (age-ineligible for PCV13), and HIV-infected adults (18–40yrs) on ART. For phenotypic serotyping we used a 13-valent latex kit (SSI, Denmark). For genomic serotyping we applied PneumoCaT pipeline to whole genome sequence libraries. For molecular serotyping by microarray we used the BUGS Bioscience Senti-SP microarray. RESULTS: 1347 samples were analysed. Concordance was 90.7% (95% CI: 89.0–92.2) between latex and PneumoCaT; 95.2% (93.9–96.3) between latex and microarray; and 96.6% (95.5–97.5) between microarray and PneumoCaT. By detecting additional vaccine serotype (VT) pneumococcus carried at low relative abundance (median 8%), microarray increased VT detection by 31.5% compared to latex serotyping. CONCLUSION: All three serotyping methods were highly concordant in identifying dominant serotypes. Latex serotyping is accurate in identifying vaccine-serotypes and requires the least expertise and resources for field-implementation and analysis. However, WGS, which adds population structure, and microarray, which adds multiple-serotype carriage, should be considered at regional reference laboratories while investigating the importance of VT in low relative abundance in transmission and disease

Hepatitis B vaccination impact and the unmet need for antiviral treatment in Blantyre, Malawi

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis B is the leading cause of cirrhosis and liver cancer in sub-Saharan Africa. To reduce hepatitis-associated mortality, antiviral treatment programmes are needed. We estimated prevalence, vaccine impact and need for antiviral treatment in Blantyre, Malawi to inform an effective public health response. METHODS: We conducted a household study in Blantyre in 2016-2018. We selected individuals from a census using random sampling and estimated age-sex-standardised HBsAg seroprevalence. Impact of infant hepatitis B vaccination, which began in 2002, was estimated by binomial log-linear regression comparing individuals born before and after vaccine implementation. In HBsAg-positive adults, eligibility for antiviral therapy was assessed. RESULTS: Of 97,386 censused individuals, 6,073 (median age 18 years; 56.7% female) were sampled. HBsAg seroprevalence was 5.1% (95% CI 4.3-6.1) among adults and 0.3% (0.1-0.6) among children born after vaccine introduction. Estimated vaccine impact was 95.8% (70.3-99.4). Of HBsAg-positive adults, 26% were HIV-positive. Among HIV-negative individuals, 3%, 6% and 9% were eligible for hepatitis B treatment by WHO, European and American hepatology association criteria, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Infant HBV vaccination has been highly effective in reducing HBsAg prevalence in urban Malawi. Up to 9% of HBsAg-positive HIV-negative adults are eligible, but have an unmet need, for antiviral therapy

Gene set of nuclear-encoded mitochondrial regulators is enriched for common inherited variation in obesity

There are hints of an altered mitochondrial function in obesity. Nuclear-encoded genes are relevant for mitochondrial function (3 gene sets of known relevant pathways: (1) 16 nuclear regulators of mitochondrial genes, (2) 91 genes for oxidative phosphorylation and (3) 966 nuclear-encoded mitochondrial genes). Gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) showed no association with type 2 diabetes mellitus in these gene sets. Here we performed a GSEA for the same gene sets for obesity. Genome wide association study (GWAS) data from a case-control approach on 453 extremely obese children and adolescents and 435 lean adult controls were used for GSEA. For independent confirmation, we analyzed 705 obesity GWAS trios (extremely obese child and both biological parents) and a population-based GWAS sample (KORA F4, n = 1,743). A meta-analysis was performed on all three samples. In each sample, the distribution of significance levels between the respective gene set and those of all genes was compared using the leading-edge-fraction-comparison test (cut-offs between the 50(th) and 95(th) percentile of the set of all gene-wise corrected p-values) as implemented in the MAGENTA software. In the case-control sample, significant enrichment of associations with obesity was observed above the 50(th) percentile for the set of the 16 nuclear regulators of mitochondrial genes (p(GSEA,50) = 0.0103). This finding was not confirmed in the trios (p(GSEA,50) = 0.5991), but in KORA (p(GSEA,50) = 0.0398). The meta-analysis again indicated a trend for enrichment (p(MAGENTA,50) = 0.1052, p(MAGENTA,75) = 0.0251). The GSEA revealed that weak association signals for obesity might be enriched in the gene set of 16 nuclear regulators of mitochondrial genes