The impact of COVID-19 and associated policy responses on global food security

We analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated policy responses on the global economy and food security in 80 low- and middle-income countries. We use a global economy-wide model with detailed disaggregation of agricultural and food sectors and develop a business-as-usual baseline for 2020 and 2021 called “But-for-COVID” (BfC). We then shock the model with aggregate income shocks derived from the IMF World Economic Outlook for 2020 and 2021. We impose total-factor productivity losses in key sectors as well as consumption decreases induced by social distancing. The resulting shocks in prices and incomes from the CGE model simulations are fed into the USDAERS International Food Security Assessment (IFSA) model to derive the impact of the pandemic on food security in these 80 countries. The main effect of the pandemic was to exacerbate the existing declining trend in food security. Food insecurity increases considerably in countries in Asia through income shocks rather than prices effects.We also review trade policies that were put in place to restrict imports and exports of food, and we evaluate their potential for further disruption of markets focusing on the food-security implications

Increasing incomes of cotton farmers in Mali: Effects of price increases, productivity gains, and alternative crops

In a WTO battle and the press the argument is often made that eliminating US cotton subsidies would have a large effect on the incomes and competitive position of farmers in developing countries. In Mali and in Francophone West African cotton production productivity has stagnated after rapid gains in the first two decades after independence (1960-1980). Constructing a farm model based upon farmers\u27 definition of their decision making framework we compare the effects of the elimination of US subsidies with various productivity increasing measures for cotton and cereals such as sorghum in Mali. Farmers\u27 income gains from eliminating US subsides are as much as 20 percent. Increased fertilization levels for cotton, and the introduction of a new technology and marketing package for sorghum all have even higher returns for cotton farmers in the West African site of Dioila, Mali. Productivity improvements, including the introduction of Bt cotton increases farmers\u27 incomes by 179 percent. When combining price increases with productivity improvements farmers\u27 incomes increase by an additional 38 percent to 217 percent. Productivity improvements in cotton and cereals such as sorghum need to be given a greater emphasis in the programs to increase cotton farmers\u27 incomes

The Impact of COVID-19 and Associated Policy Responses on Global Food Security

We analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated policy responses on the global economy and food security in 80 low- and middle-income countries. We use a global economy-wide model with detailed disaggregation of agricultural and food sectors and develop a business as usual baseline for 2020 and 2021 called “But-for-COVID” (BfC). We then shock the model with aggregate income shocks derived from the IMF World Economic Outlook for 2020 and 2021. We impose total- factor productivity losses in key sectors as well as consumption decreases induced by social distancing. The resulting shocks in prices and incomes from the CGE model simulations are fed into the USDA-ERS International Food Security Assessment model to derive the impact of the pandemic on food security in these 80 countries. The main effect of the pandemic was to exacerbate the existing declining trend in food security. Food insecurity increases considerably in countries in Asia through income shocks rather than prices effects. We also review trade policies that were put in place to restrict imports and exports of food, and we evaluate their potential for further disruption of markets focusing on the food-security implications

Increasing Cotton Farmers Incomes in Mali West Africa: Eliminate Subsidies in Developed Countries or Productivity Increase in Mali?

In a WTO battle and the press the argument is often made that eliminating US cotton subsidies would have a large effect on the incomes and competitive position of farmers in developing countries. In Francophone West African cotton production productivity has stagnated after rapid gains in the first two decades after independence (1960-1980). Constructing a farm model based upon farmers’ definition of their decision making framework we compare the effects of the elimination of US subsidies with various productivity increasing measures for cotton and diversification in Mali. In the farm model we take into account the elasticity of transmission of a change in the world cotton price to the farm gate price. The gains to eliminating US subsides are very small unless the transmission elasticities of world cotton price to the farm gate price are substantially increased. In contrast the various technological alternatives including Bt cotton introduction, the use of higher and more regionally defined fertilization levels for cotton, and the introduction of a new technology and marketing package for sorghum all have substantially higher returns for the cotton farmers in the West African site of Dioila, Mali. Even with substantial improvement in the mechanisms enabling farmers to benefit from the higher prices of the elimination of US subsidies, there are still much higher returns to the various types of productivity increases. Maybe West Africa needs to act more now on increasing their productivity as protracted trade negotiations continue

Introducing inventory credit into Nigerien agriculture: improving technology diffusion

A critical component of agriculture in developing countries is increasing soil fertility in response to depleted soils and declining crop yields. An inventory credit program was introduced in western Niger to generate savings for farmers’ groups to facilitate the purchase of inorganic fertilizers. This program is compared with a more traditional inventory credit program, which provides credit at harvest but lets farmers sell their grain in the post-harvest period after grain prices have recovered. The evaluation of the two programs for their impacts on farmers’ incomes and farm-level technology adoption is undertaken with a linear programming model. The decision-making framework of this model comes from interviews of farmers in a number of African countries. Farmers are found to be risk averse, but exhibit a different type of decision making than the usual expected income-income variability tradeoff.Fertilizer, Inventory credit, Niger, Risk aversion

Evaluating the Prediction Performance of the International Food Security Assessment's Production Models: A Cross-Validation Approach

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Economic Research Service (ERS) International Food Security Assessment (IFSA) model was developed to help USDA and its stakeholders evaluate the food security status of 76 low- and middle-income countries. The IFSA model provides an estimate of total food demand and food production, both elements in measuring food security. The demand side of the IFSA model is used to estimate the prevalence of country-level food insecurity based on an aggregate food consumption threshold of 2,100 calories per capita per day. The gap between aggregate domestic food production and food demand is used to estimate the implied additional supply required for each of the 76 countries in the IFSA, which is an indication of potential import needs, including food aid. The primary objective of the IFSA’s supply-side modeling work is to project production. This research evaluates the production model to determine the best performing prediction model specification. This report advances previous research by using a data-driven approach to select the best performing model specification

Author's personal copy Increasing incomes of Malian cotton farmers: Is elimination of US subsidies the only solution?

a b s t r a c t In a WTO battle and the press the argument is often made that eliminating US cotton subsidies would have a large effect on the incomes and competitive position of farmers in developing countries. In Francophone West Africa cotton productivity has stagnated after rapid gains in the first two decades following independence . A farm model was constructed based on farmers' definition of their decisionmaking framework which they use to respond to income and weather risks. With this model the effects on farmers of eliminating US subsidies are compared with various productivity increasing measures for cotton and sorghum in Dioila, Mali. Dioila is located in a representative cotton region producing 16% of the cotton in Mali. We include sorghum due to its importance for consumption and the observation of Malian farmers substituting cereals (sorghum and maize) for cotton as the returns to cotton have fallen in the 21st Century. In the farm model, the elasticity of transmission of a change in the world cotton price to the farm gate price is taken into account. The gains from eliminating US subsides are small. In contrast, the various technological alternatives including Bt cotton introduction, the use of higher fertilization levels for cotton, and the introduction of improved sorghum cultivars and moderate fertilization along with a marketing package all have substantially higher returns Even with substantial improvement in the mechanisms enabling farmers to benefit from the higher prices resulting from elimination of US subsidies, there are still much higher returns resulting from the various types of productivity increases. Published by Elsevier Ltd