Boletín Económico Regional : Centro, IV trimestre de 2006

Análisis del desarrollo de la estructura económica de la región Centro Sur de Colombia conformada por los departamentos de Tolima, Cundinamarca, Huila y Caquetá durante el período 2005-2006

Reporte Estabilidad Financiera - Primer Semestre de 2020

In the face of the multiple shocks currently experienced by the domestic economy (resulting from the drop in oil prices and the appearance of a global pandemic), the Colombian financial system is in a position of sound solvency and adequate liquidity. At the same time, credit quality has been recovering and the exposure of credit institutions to firms with currency mismatches has declined relative to previous episodes of sudden drops in oil prices. These trends are reflected in the recent fading of red and blue tonalities in the performance and credit risk segments of the risk heatmaps in Graphs A and B.1 Naturally, the sudden, unanticipated change in macroeconomic conditions has caused the appearance of vulnerabilities for short-term financial stability. These vulnerabilities require close and continuous monitoring on the part of economic authorities. The main vulnerability is the response of credit and credit risk to a potential, temporarily extreme macroeconomic situation in the context of: (i) recently increased exposure of some banks to household sector, and (ii) reductions in net interest income that have led to a decline in the profitability of the banking business in the recent past. Furthermore, as a consequence of greater uncertainty and risk aversion, occasional problems may arise in the distribution of liquidity between agents and financial markets. With regards to local markets, spikes have been registered in the volatility of public and private fixed income securities in recent weeks that are consistent with the behavior of the international markets and have had a significant impact on the liquidity of those instruments (red portions in the most recent past of some market risk items on the map in Graph A). In order to adopt a forward-looking approach to those vulnerabilities, this Report presents a stress test that evaluates the resilience of credit institutions in the event of a hypothetical scenario thatseeks to simulate an extreme version of current macroeconomic conditions. The scenario assumes a hypothetical negative growth that is temporarily strong but recovers going into the middle of the coming year and has extreme effects on credit quality. The results suggest that credit institutions have the ability to withstand a significant deterioration in economic conditions in the short term. Even though there could be a strong impact on credit, liquidity, and profitability under the scenario being considered, aggregate capital ratios would probably remain at above their regulatory limits over the horizon of a year. In this context, the recent measures taken by both Banco de la República and the Office of the Financial Superintendent of Colombia that are intended to help preserve the financial stability of the Colombian economy become highly relevant. In compliance with its constitutional objectives and in coordination with the financial system’s security network, Banco de la República will continue to closely monitor the outlook for financial stability at this juncture and will make the decisions that are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of the economy, facilitate the flow of sufficient credit and liquidity resources, and further the smooth functioning of the payment system. Juan José Echavarría Governo

Financial Stability Report - Second Semester of 2020

The Colombian financial system has not suffered major structural disruptions during these months of deep economic contraction and has continued to carry out its basic functions as usual, thus facilitating the economy's response to extreme conditions. This is the result of the soundness of financial institutions at the beginning of the crisis, which was reflected in high liquidity and capital adequacy indicators as well as in the timely response of various authorities. Banco de la República lowered its policy interest rates 250 points to 1.75%, the lowest level since the creation of the new independent bank in 1991, and provided ample temporary and permanent liquidity in both pesos and foreign currency. The Office of the Financial Superintendent of Colombia, in turn, adopted prudential measures to facilitate changes in the conditions for loans in effect and temporary rules for rating and loan-loss provisions. Finally, the national government expanded the transfers as well as the guaranteed credit programs for the economy. The supply of real credit (i.e. discounting inflation) in the economy is 4% higher today than it was 12 months ago with especially marked growth in the housing (5.6%) and commercial (4.7%) loan portfolios (2.3% in consumer and -0.1% in microloans), but there have been significant changes over time. During the first few months of the quarantine, firms increased their demands for liquidity sharply while consumers reduced theirs. Since then, the growth of credit to firms has tended to slow down, while consumer and housing credit has grown. The financial system has responded satisfactorily to the changes in the respective demands of each group or sector and loans may grow at high rates in 2021 if GDP grows at rates close to 4.6% as the technical staff at the Bank expects; but the forecasts are highly uncertain. After the strict quarantine implemented by authorities in Colombia, the turmoil seen in March and early April, which was evident in the sudden reddening of macroeconomic variables on the risk heatmap in Graph A,[1] and the drop in crude oil and coal prices (note the high volatility registered in market risk for the region on Graph A) the local financial markets stabilized relatively quickly. Banco de la República’s credible and sustained policy response played a decisive role in this stabilization in terms of liquidity provision through a sharp expansion of repo operations (and changes in amounts, terms, counterparties, and eligible instruments), the purchases of public and private debt, and the reduction in bank reserve requirements. In this respect, there is now abundant aggregate liquidity and significant improvements in the liquidity position of investment funds. In this context, the main vulnerability factor for financial stability in the short term is still the high degree of uncertainty surrounding loan quality. First, the future trajectory of the number of people infected and deceased by the virus and the possible need for additional health measures is uncertain. For that reason, there is also uncertainty about the path for economic recovery in the short and medium term. Second, the degree to which the current shock will be reflected in loan quality once the risk materializes in banks’ financial statements is uncertain. For the time being, the credit risk heatmap (Graph B) indicates that non-performing and risky loans have not shown major deterioration, but past experience indicates that periods of sharp economic slowdown eventually tend to coincide with rises in non-performing loans: the calculations included in this report suggest that the impact of the recession on credit quality could be significant in the short term. This is particularly worrying since the profitability of credit establishments has been declining in recent months, and this could affect their ability to provide credit to the real sector of the economy. In order to adopt a forward-looking approach to this vulnerability, this Report presents several stress tests that evaluate the resilience of the liquidity and capital adequacy of credit institutions and investment funds in the event of a hypothetical scenario that seeks to simulate an extreme version of current macroeconomic conditions. The results suggest that even though there could be strong impacts on the credit institutions’ volume of credit and profitability under such scenarios, aggregate indicators of total and core capital adequacy will probably remain at levels that are above the regulatory limits over the horizon of a year. At the same time, the exercises highlight the high capacity of the system's liquidity to face adverse scenarios. In compliance with its constitutional objectives and in coordination with the financial system's security network, Banco de la República will continue to closely monitor the outlook for financial stability at this juncture and will make the decisions that are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of the economy, facilitate the flow of sufficient credit and liquidity resources, and further the smooth operation of the payment systems. Juan José Echavarría Governo

Administración de las Reservas Internacionales - Marzo de 2015

El propósito de este documento es explicar la gestión de las reservas internacionales de Colombia, las cuales ascienden a USD 47.323,09 millones (m) a diciembre de 2014. Primero, se introducen los principales conceptos asociados con las reservas internacionales y el marco en el cual se fundamenta su gestión por parte del Banco. Posteriormente, se detalla la política de administración y los aspectos fundamentales de su operatividad. Por último, se realiza un recuento sobre el estado actual de las reservas

Comportamiento de la economía del Tolima durante el año 2002

Dentro del marco de las trascendentales funciones que desarrolla el Banco de la Republica como Banca Central y, en consecuencia, como autoridad cambiaria, monetaria y crediticia, el estudio de los fenómenos económicos ha sido una constante. Dentro de las labores del Banco de la República ha ocupado un lugar destacado el estudio de las economías regionales, no solo en cuanto a su seguimiento, registro y análisis, sino también en lo referente al impacto que las medidas de política económica tienen sobre éstas. Además de su estudio y consolidación, el banco ha considerado de especial importancia difundir el resultado de sus estudios y evaluaciones en documentos regionales, que el propio Banco distribuye entre los diferentes estamentos de la comunidad académica, gubernamental, clase política, gremios económicos y público en general; al considerar necesario aportar a la comunidad información útil y oportuna, que sirva de soporte para el conocimiento de su propia realidad y la toma de decisiones. Por estas razones, desde la época en que existían las Juntas Directivas en las diferentes sucursales del Banco, se ha promovido la elaboración de documentos que contengan información estadística y analicen el desempeño de las economías locales, labor que tradicionalmente ha estado a cargo de las secciones de Estudios Económicos de la institución. Posteriormente, en abril de 2002, el Banco de la República y el DANE suscribieron un convenio de cooperación técnica, con el propósito de mantener y difundir información estadística adecuada, actualizada y oportuna, mediante la producción de publicaciones de interés para los gremios, los estamentos educativos, el sector público y la comunidad en general

Evolución reciente del endeudamiento externo de los bancos colombianos - Septiembre de 2016

El propósito de este informe es describir la evolución reciente de las líneas de crédito en moneda extranjera (M/E) de algunos bancos colombianos con información al 30 de septiembre de 2016 y presentar los principales resultados de la Encuesta de endeudamiento externo y cupos aplicada por el Banco de la República

Informe especial de estabilidad financiera : riesgo de crédito - Septiembre de 2013

Monitorear el riesgo de crédito es fundamental para preservar la estabilidad del sistema financiero colombiano, más aún si se aprecia que el portafolio de crédito representó alrededor del 60,5%1 del total de los activos de los establecimientos a junio de 2013, por lo que una eventual materialización del riesgo podría amenazar la solidez del sistema financiero. El análisis que se presenta en este informe utiliza indicadores como el de calidad (IC), medido como la relación entre cartera riesgosa (créditos calificados como B, C, D y E) y cartera bruta; el de mora (IM), que se define como la relación entre la cartera vencida (créditos calificados como C, D y E) y la cartera bruta; el indicador de calidad por operaciones (ICO), que es la razón entre el número de créditos riesgosos y el total de créditos, y el indicador de mora por operaciones (IMO) que, en este caso, por disponibilidad de información se define como la relación entre el número de créditos vencidos y el total de créditos. Adicionalmente, se evalúa la evolución de las matrices de transición2 y las cosechas3, y se hace un análisis de los nuevos deudores y créditos

Informe especial de estabilidad financiera : riesgo de liquidez - Marzo de 2013

En este informe se analizan aspectos del riesgo de liquidez del sistema financiero, concernientes a la volatilidad de los precios y al grado de negociación de algunos de los instrumentos más utilizados por las entidades para fondearse. Asimismo, se construyen algunos indicadores para identificar las características de la interacción de los agentes que participan en Sistema Electrónico de Negociación (SEN) y en el Mercado Electrónico Colombiano (MEC). Analizar este riesgo es importante, ya que su materialización representa altos costos para las entidades, así como pérdida de confianza del público y de sus contrapartes. Los problemas de liquidez de una entidad pueden amenazar la estabilidad del sistema financiero, por ejemplo, en una situación donde una proporción importante de las transacciones del sistema dependen del pago oportuno de obligaciones previas

Evolución reciente del endeudamiento externo de los bancos colombianos - Julio de 2014

El propósito de este informe es describir la evolución reciente de las líneas de crédito en moneda extranjera de algunos bancos colombianos, presentar los principales resultados de la Encuesta de endeudamiento externo y cupos aplicada por el Banco de la República a julio de 2014 y analizar la concentración por contraparte del saldo de deuda externa de una muestra representativa de bancos comerciales que tienen líneas de crédito en moneda extranjera

Informe especial de estabilidad financiera : riesgo de mercado - Septiembre de 2013

En este informe se estudia el riesgo de mercado de los portafolios de deuda pública de las entidades del sistema financiero. En la primera sección se analiza la exposición del sistema a los títulos de deuda pública; en la segunda, se realizan dos ejercicios de sensibilidad con el fin de evaluar la capacidad de las entidades para absorber choques adversos y, por último, se calculan dos medidas de riesgo de mercado