Reforming the Spanish contributory pension system

The debate on the reform of the pension system in Spain is not very lively, in contrast with the international experience. The Spanish economic boom since the mis nineties, the slowdown in the number of pensioners due to the retirement of the cohorts born during the Civil War, and the outstanding immigration flows have contributed to a transitory strengh of Social Security accounts. The paper aims at extending and fostering this public debate. We present an evaluation of the contriburoty pension system in Spain until 2059, based on recent demographic projections. We propose a set of simple indicators to evaluate periodically the situation and perspectives of the Social Security system. And we elaborate on the main reforms that may balance the Social Security Accounts, already implemented in Europe.España, Seguridad Social, prestaciones contributivas, sostenibilidad financiera, reformas

I+D como factor productivo en la economía española: un análisis empírico regional y sectorial

En los últimos años se asiste a un notable consenso internacional acerca de la relevancia de la inversión en nuevas tecnologías y en actividades de innovación como medio para fomentar el crecimiento de largo plazo de la economía. Este artículo tiene como principal objetivo contrastar cuantitativamente la aportación de la I+D a la actividad productiva en España en las dos últimas décadas. Ello se aborda desde una doble perspectiva, al contrastar la contribución del capital tecnológico – medido como el stock de I+D – a la producción desagregada por CC.AA. y por sectores productivos de la economía privada no agraria, diferenciando éstos en función de su intensidad tecnológica. Además, se evalúa la presencia de externalidades positivas derivadas de la inversión en I+D realizada fuera de la propia región o del sector.Crecimiento económico, Externalidades

Intrahost Selection Pressures Drive Rapid Dengue Virus Microevolution in Acute Human Infections.

Dengue, caused by four dengue virus serotypes (DENV-1 to DENV-4), is a highly prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease in humans. Yet, selection pressures driving DENV microevolution within human hosts (intrahost) remain unknown. We employed a whole-genome segmented amplification approach coupled with deep sequencing to profile DENV-3 intrahost diversity in peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC) and plasma samples from 77 dengue patients. DENV-3 intrahost diversity appears to be driven by immune pressures as well as replicative success in PBMCs and potentially other replication sites. Hotspots for intrahost variation were detected in 59%-78% of patients in the viral Envelope and pre-Membrane/Membrane proteins, which together form the virion surface. Dominant variants at the hotspots arose via convergent microevolution, appear to be immune-escape variants, and were evolutionarily constrained at the macro level due to viral replication defects. Dengue is thus an example of an acute infection in which selection pressures within infected individuals drive rapid intrahost virus microevolution

Neutralizing antibody titers against dengue virus correlate with protection from symptomatic infection in a longitudinal cohort.

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from National Academy of Sciences via http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1522136113The four dengue virus serotypes (DENV1-4) are mosquito-borne flaviviruses that infect ∼ 390 million people annually; up to 100 million infections are symptomatic, and 500,000 cases progress to severe disease. Exposure to a heterologous DENV serotype, the specific infecting DENV strains, and the interval of time between infections, as well as age, ethnicity, genetic polymorphisms, and comorbidities of the host, are all risk factors for severe dengue. In contrast, neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) are thought to provide long-lived protection against symptomatic infection and severe dengue. The objective of dengue vaccines is to provide balanced protection against all DENV serotypes simultaneously. However, the association between homotypic and heterotypic NAb titers and protection against symptomatic infection remains poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate that the titer of preinfection cross-reactive NAbs correlates with reduced likelihood of symptomatic secondary infection in a longitudinal pediatric dengue cohort in Nicaragua. The protective effect of NAb titers on infection outcome remained significant when controlled for age, number of years between infections, and epidemic force, as well as with relaxed or more stringent criteria for defining inapparent DENV infections. Further, individuals with higher NAb titers immediately after primary infection had delayed symptomatic infections compared with those with lower titers. However, overall NAb titers increased modestly in magnitude and remained serotype cross-reactive in the years between infections, possibly due to reexposure. These findings establish that anti-DENV NAb titers correlate with reduced probability of symptomatic DENV infection and provide insights into longitudinal characteristics of antibody-mediated immunity to DENV in an endemic setting.This work was supported by the FIRST (Fighting Infections through Research, Science, and Technology) grant from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the Instituto Carlos Slim de la Salud (to E.H.) and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grants R01 AI099631 (to A.B.) and P01 AI106695 (to E.H.). The Nicaraguan Pediatric Dengue Cohort Study was also supported by Pediatric Dengue Vaccine Initiative Grant VE-1 (to E.H.). L.C.K. was supported by the Gates Cambridge Scholarship Programme and the NIH Oxford-Cambridge Scholars Program

High Dengue Case Capture Rate in Four Years of a Cohort Study in Nicaragua Compared to National Surveillance Data

Dengue is a major public health problem in tropical and subtropical regions; however, under-reporting of cases to national surveillance systems hinders accurate knowledge of disease burden and costs. Laboratory-confirmed dengue cases identified through the Nicaraguan Pediatric Dengue Cohort Study (PDCS) were compared to those reported from other health facilities in Managua to the National Epidemiologic Surveillance (NES) program of the Nicaraguan Ministry of Health. Compared to reporting among similar pediatric populations in Managua, the PDCS identified 14 to 28 (average 21.3) times more dengue cases each year per 100,000 persons than were reported to the NES. Applying these annual expansion factors to national-level data, we estimate that the incidence of confirmed pediatric dengue throughout Nicaragua ranged from 300 to 1000 cases per 100,000 persons. We have estimated a much higher incidence of dengue than reported by the Ministry of Health. A country-specific expansion factor for dengue that allows for a more accurate estimate of incidence may aid governments and other institutions calculating disease burden, costs, resource needs for prevention and treatment, and the economic benefits of drug and vaccine development

Las reformas necesarias en el sistema de pensiones contributivas en España

The debate on the reform of the pension system in Spain is not very lively, in contrast with the international experience. The Spanish economic boom since the mis nineties, the slowdown in the number of pensioners due to the retirement of the cohorts born during the Civil War, and the outstanding immigration flows have contributed to a transitory strengh of Social Security accounts. The paper aims at extending and fostering this public debate. We present an evaluation of the contriburoty pension system in Spain until 2059, based on recent demographic projections. We propose a set of simple indicators to evaluate periodically the situation and perspectives of the Social Security system. And we elaborate on the main reforms that may balance the Social Security Accounts, already implemented in Europe

Early Clinical Features of Dengue Virus Infection in Nicaraguan Children: A Longitudinal Analysis

Dengue virus causes an estimated 50 million dengue cases and approximately 500,000 life-threatening complications annually. New tools are needed to distinguish dengue from other febrile illnesses. In addition, the natural history of pediatric dengue early in illness in a community-based setting has not been well-defined. Here, we describe the clinical spectrum of pediatric dengue over the course of illness in a community setting by using five years of data from an ongoing prospective cohort study of children in Managua, Nicaragua. Day-by-day analysis of clinical signs and symptoms together with longitudinal statistical analysis showed significant associations with testing dengue-positive and important differences during the early phase of illness compared to the entire course of illness. These findings are important for clinical practice since outside of the hospital setting, clinicians may see dengue patients toward the beginning of their illness and utilize that information to decide whether their patient has dengue or another febrile illness. The results of these models should be extended for the development of prediction algorithms to aid clinicians in diagnosing suspected dengue