Premorbid levels of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T and natriuretic peptide and prognosis after incident myocardial infarction

High-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) at the time of myocardial infarction (MI) are strong predictors of prognosis. However, whether their premorbid (before MI occurrence) levels are associated with prognosis after incident MI is unknown. Methods: In 1,054 participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study with incident MI, we evaluated premorbid levels of hs-cTnT and NT-proBNP measured on median 5.8 (interquartile interval 3.0-11.5 [mean 5.5]) years prior to incident MI and their associations with subsequent composite and individual outcomes of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, recurrent MI, heart failure, and stroke. Results: During a median follow-up of 3.0 years after MI, 801 participants developed the composite outcome. Both hs-cTnT and NT-proBNP were independently associated with the composite outcome after incident MI. Among individual outcomes, all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and heart failure showed significant associations with both cardiac markers. Overall, NT-proBNP demonstrated a more evident relationship than hs-cTnT. Indeed, the addition of premorbid NT-proBNP alone, but not hs-cTnT alone, to conventional predictors at incident MI significantly improved risk prediction of the composite outcome after incident MI (∆c-statistic 0.013 [95% CI 0.005-0.022] from 0.691 with conventional predictors). Conclusions: Premorbid levels of hs-cTnT and NT-proBNP assessed on average 6 years prior to incident MI were associated with adverse outcomes after incident MI. These results further highlight the importance of cardiac health at an earlier stage of life

Prognostic Variation Among Very High-Risk and High-Risk Individuals With Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease

Given the availability of an effective but expensive lipid-lowering medication, proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 inhibitors, the American Heart Association and the American College of Cardiology 2018 cholesterol guideline introduced a new classification of “very high-risk” (i.e., multiple major atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases [ASCVDs] or a major ASCVD þ multiple high-risk conditions) versus “high-risk” for patients with prior ASCVD. A few recent studies reported risk variation within very high-risk ASCVD, with multiple ASCVDs conferring higher risk than 1 ASCVD þ $2 high-risk conditions. However, these studies did not evaluate whether the constellation of high-risk conditions in 1 ASCVD may equate to the risk of multiple ASCVDs or whether the new classification has implications for heart failure

Albuminuria and Prognosis Among Individuals With Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease: The ARIC Study

The American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association 2018 Cholesterol Guideline proposed the new classification of “very high-risk” atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) (multiple ASCVDs or 1 ASCVD plus $2 high-risk conditions) to guide intensive secondary prevention. This guideline takes into account reduced glomerular filtration rate (GFR) as a high-risk condition, but not albuminuria, a measure of kidney damage, that is more strongly associated with cardiovascular outcomes than reduced GFR. Importantly, the assessment of albuminuria is already recommended in patients with diabetes and hypertension, and thus, data of albuminuria are readily available in many patients with ASCVD. We explored whether urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) is independently associated with adverse outcomes and can improve risk prediction in persons with ASCVD beyond the high-risk conditions in the guideline

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2•72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2•66–2•79) in 2000 to 2•31 (2•17–2•46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134•5 million (131•5–137•8) in 2000 to a peak of 139•6 million (133•0–146•9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135•3 million (127•2–144•1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2•1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27•1% (95% UI 26•4–27•8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67•2 years (95% UI 66•8–67•6) in 2000 to 73•5 years (72•8–74•3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50•7 million (49•5–51•9) in 2000 to 56•5 million (53•7–59•2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9•6 million (9•1–10•3) in 2000 to 5•0 million (4•3–6•0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25•7%, from 6•2 billion (6•0–6•3) in 2000 to 7•7 billion (7•5–8•0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58•6 years (56•1–60•8) in 2000 to 63•5 years (60•8–66•1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019. Interpretation: Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990�2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease. Methods: GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk�outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk�outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk�outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden. Findings: The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95 uncertainty interval UI 9·51�12·1) deaths (19·2% 16·9�21·3 of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12�9·31) deaths (15·4% 14·6�16·2 of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253�350) DALYs (11·6% 10·3�13·1 of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0�9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10�24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25�49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50�74 years and 75 years and older. Interpretation: Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

American Heart Association's Life's Simple 7 at Middle Age and Prognosis After Myocardial Infarction in Later Life

Background--The American Heart Association recommends focusing on 7 health factors (Life's Simple 7) for primordial prevention of cardiovascular health. However, whether greater adherence to Life's Simple 7 in midlife improves prognosis after myocardial infarction (MI) in later life is unknown. Methods and Results--In 1277 participants who developed MI during the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) Study follow-up, a 14-point score of Life's Simple 7 was constructed according to the status (2 points for ideal, 1 point for intermediate, and 0 points for poor) of each of 7 factors (smoking, adiposity, physical activity, diet, total cholesterol, blood pressure, and fasting glucose) at baseline (1987-1989). Hazard ratios for composite and individual adverse outcomes of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, recurrent MI, heart failure, and stroke were calculated according to Life's Simple 7 score. During a median follow-up of 3.3 years, 918 participants (72%) had subsequent adverse outcomes after MI. Life's Simple 7 score at middle age was inversely associated with adverse outcomes after MI (adjusted hazard ratios of composite outcome, 0.57 [95% confidence interval, 0.39-0.84] if score is ≥10, 0.78 [95% confidence interval, 0.57-1.07] if score is 7-9, and 0.82 [95% confidence interval, 0.60-1.11] if score is 4-6 versus ≤3). The association was largely independent of access to care and MI severity. Individual factors related to better prognosis after MI were ideal nonsmoking, body mass index, blood pressure, and fasting glucose. Conclusions--Optimal Life's Simple 7 at middle age was associated with better prognosis after MI in later life. Our findings suggest a secondary prevention benefit of having better cardiovascular health status in midlife

New Creatinine- and Cystatin C-Based Equations to Estimate GFR without Race.

Current equations for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) that use serum creatinine or cystatin C incorporate age, sex, and race to estimate measured GFR. However, race in eGFR equations is a social and not a biologic construct. We developed new eGFR equations without race using data from two development data sets: 10 studies (8254 participants, 31.5% Black) for serum creatinine and 13 studies (5352 participants, 39.7% Black) for both serum creatinine and cystatin C. In a validation data set of 12 studies (4050 participants, 14.3% Black), we compared the accuracy of new eGFR equations to measured GFR. We projected the prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and GFR stages in a sample of U.S. adults, using current and new equations. In the validation data set, the current creatinine equation that uses age, sex, and race overestimated measured GFR in Blacks (median, 3.7 ml per minute per 1.73 m <sup>2</sup> of body-surface area; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.8 to 5.4) and to a lesser degree in non-Blacks (median, 0.5 ml per minute per 1.73 m <sup>2</sup> ; 95% CI, 0.0 to 0.9). When the adjustment for Black race was omitted from the current eGFR equation, measured GFR in Blacks was underestimated (median, 7.1 ml per minute per 1.73 m <sup>2</sup> ; 95% CI, 5.9 to 8.8). A new equation using age and sex and omitting race underestimated measured GFR in Blacks (median, 3.6 ml per minute per 1.73 m <sup>2</sup> ; 95% CI, 1.8 to 5.5) and overestimated measured GFR in non-Blacks (median, 3.9 ml per minute per 1.73 m <sup>2</sup> ; 95% CI, 3.4 to 4.4). For all equations, 85% or more of the eGFRs for Blacks and non-Blacks were within 30% of measured GFR. New creatinine-cystatin C equations without race were more accurate than new creatinine equations, with smaller differences between race groups. As compared with the current creatinine equation, the new creatinine equations, but not the new creatinine-cystatin C equations, increased population estimates of CKD prevalence among Blacks and yielded similar or lower prevalence among non-Blacks. New eGFR equations that incorporate creatinine and cystatin C but omit race are more accurate and led to smaller differences between Black participants and non-Black participants than new equations without race with either creatinine or cystatin C alone. (Funded by the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases.)

Measures of chronic kidney disease and risk of incident peripheral artery disease: a collaborative meta-analysis of individual participant data

Item does not contain fulltextBACKGROUND: Some evidence suggests that chronic kidney disease is a risk factor for lower-extremity peripheral artery disease. We aimed to quantify the independent and joint associations of two measures of chronic kidney disease (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] and albuminuria) with the incidence of peripheral artery disease. METHODS: In this collaborative meta-analysis of international cohorts included in the Chronic Kidney Disease Prognosis Consortium (baseline measurements obtained between 1972 and 2014) with baseline measurements of eGFR and albuminuria, at least 1000 participants (this criterion not applied to cohorts exclusively enrolling patients with chronic kidney disease), and at least 50 peripheral artery disease events, we analysed adult participants without peripheral artery disease at baseline at the individual patient level with Cox proportional hazards models to quantify associations of creatinine-based eGFR, urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR), and dipstick proteinuria with the incidence of peripheral artery disease (including hospitalisation with a diagnosis of peripheral artery disease, intermittent claudication, leg revascularisation, and leg amputation). We assessed discrimination improvement through c-statistics. FINDINGS: We analysed 817 084 individuals without a history of peripheral artery disease at baseline from 21 cohorts. 18 261 cases of peripheral artery disease were recorded during follow-up across cohorts (median follow-up was 7.4 years [IQR 5.7-8.9], range 2.0-15.8 years across cohorts). Both chronic kidney disease measures were independently associated with the incidence of peripheral artery disease. Compared with an eGFR of 95 mL/min per 1.73 m2, adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for incident study-specific peripheral artery disease was 1.22 (95% CI 1.14-1.30) at an eGFR of 45 mL/min per 1.73 m2 and 2.06 (1.70-2.48) at an eGFR of 15 mL/min per 1.73 m2. Compared with an ACR of 5 mg/g, the adjusted HR for incident study-specific peripheral artery disease was 1.50 (1.41-1.59) at an ACR of 30 mg/g and 2.28 (2.12-2.44) at an ACR of 300 mg/g. The adjusted HR at an ACR of 300 mg/g versus 5 mg/g was 3.68 (95% CI 3.00-4.52) for leg amputation. eGFR and albuminuria contributed multiplicatively (eg, adjusted HR 5.76 [4.90-6.77] for incident peripheral artery disease and 10.61 [5.70-19.77] for amputation in eGFR /=300 mg/g or dipstick proteinuria 2+ or higher vs eGFR >/=90 mL/min per 1.73 m2 plus ACR <10 mg/g or dipstick proteinuria negative). Both eGFR and ACR significantly improved peripheral artery disease risk discrimination beyond traditional predictors, with a substantial improvement prediction of amputation with ACR (difference in c-statistic 0.058, 95% CI 0.045-0.070). Patterns were consistent across clinical subgroups. INTERPRETATION: Even mild-to-moderate chronic kidney disease conferred increased risk of incident peripheral artery disease, with a strong association between albuminuria and amputation. Clinical attention should be paid to the development of peripheral artery disease symptoms and signs in people with any stage of chronic kidney disease. FUNDING: American Heart Association, US National Kidney Foundation, and US National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases