Evaluating the Eleventh District's Beige Book

In this study, Nathan Balke and Mine Yucel ask whether the Eleventh Federal Reserve District's Beige Book description contains timely information about economic activity within the District. They examine whether the Beige Book description tracks current Texas real gross state product (GSP) growth and current Texas employment growth. They also study whether the Beige Book has information about growth not present in other regional indicators that would have been available to analysts at the time of the Beige Book's release. They find that both the Beige Book summary and the average across sectors reflect Texas GSP and employment growth very well. These two measures of the Beige Book also have predictive content for one quarter ahead GSP growth. Balke and Yucel also find that the Eleventh District's Beige Book has information content for Texas economic activity over and above other state economic indicators such as Texas employment growth, personal income, or sectoral employment growth. Because the Beige Book is released at least one month earlier than employment data and at least two years before GSP data, its timeliness makes it a good tool for current regional economic analysis.Employment (Economic theory) ; Unemployment ; Economic indicators

Sectoral Price Changes and Output Growth: Supply and Demand in General Equilibrium

Price changes and output growth, both at the aggregate and the sectoral level, appear to be negatively correlated. At a basic level, this suggests that sectoral “supply” shocks are more prevalent than sectoral “demand” shocks. However, it is not clear what these sectoral price-output correlations mean once one thinks in terms of general equilibrium. To help us understand the implication of these price-output correlations, this paper examines a multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium model that includes sectoral technology shocks and sectoral demand shocks, as well as aggregate money growth shocks. We show that while a model driven solely by sectoral technology shocks can generate “plausible” price-output correlations, “demand” shocks, particularly sectoral demand shocks, are needed for the model to generate the sectoral price-output correlations observed in the data. We also show that technology shocks do not always look like “supply” shocks. Positive technology shocks to sectors producing goods that are used for investment frequently result in increases in output and prices in other sectors while positive technology shocks to sectors producing goods that are used primarily as intermediate inputs look like supply shocks in other sectors.

Oil price shocks and U.S. economic activity: an international perspective

Oil price shocks are thought to have played a prominent role in U.S. economic activity. In this paper, we employ Bayesian methods with a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of world economic activity to identify the various sources of oil price shocks and economic fluctuation and to assess their effects on U.S. economic activity. We find that changes in oil prices are best understood as endogenous. Oil price shocks in the 1970s and early 1980s and the 2000s reflect differing mixes of shifts in oil supply and demand, and differing sources of oil price shocks have differing effects on economic activity. We also find that U.S. output fluctuations owe mostly to domestic shocks, with productivity shocks contributing to weakness in the 1970s and 1980s and strength in the 2000s.Petroleum products - Prices ; Petroleum industry and trade ; Economic conditions - United States ; Business cycles

Oil Price Shocks and U.S. Economic Activity: An International Perspective

Oil price shocks are thought to have played a prominent role in U.S. economic activity. In this paper, we employ Bayesian methods with a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of world economic activity to identify the various sources of oil price shocks and economic fluctuation and to assess their effects on U.S. economic activity. We find that changes in oil prices are best understood as endogenous. Oil price shocks in the 1970s and early 1980s and the 2000s reflect differing mixes of shifts in oil supply and demand, and differing sources of oil price shocks have differing effects on economic activity. We also find that U.S. output fluctuations owe mostly to domestic shocks, with productivity shocks contributing to weakness in the 1970s and 1980s and strength in the 2000s.oil price, international business cycles, general equilibrium, Bayesian estimation

An international perspective on oil price shocks and U.S. economic activity

The effect of oil price shocks on U.S. economic activity seems to have changed since the mid-1990s. A variety of explanations have been offered for the seeming change—including better luck, the reduced energy intensity of the U.S. economy, a more flexible economy, more experience with oil price shocks and better monetary policy. These explanations point to a weakening of the relationship between oil prices shocks and economic activity rather than the fundamentally different response that may be evident since the mid-1990s.> ; Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of world economic activity, we employ Bayesian methods to assess how economic activity responds to oil price shocks arising from supply shocks and demand shocks originating in the United States or elsewhere in the world. We find that both oil supply and oil demand shocks have contributed significantly to oil price fluctuations and that U.S. output fluctuations are derived largely from domestic shocks.Petroleum industry and trade ; Petroleum products - Prices ; International trade ; Economic conditions - United States

Environmental conditions of a salt-marsh biodiversity experiment on the island of Spiekeroog (Germany)

Field experiments investigating biodiversity and ecosystem functioning require the observation of abiotic parameters, especially when carried out in the intertidal zone. An experiment for biodiversity–ecosystem functioning was set up in the intertidal zone of the back-barrier salt marsh of Spiekeroog Island in the German Bight. Here, we report the accompanying instrumentation, maintenance, data acquisition, data handling and data quality control as well as monitoring results observed over a continuous period from September 2014 to April 2017. Time series of abiotic conditions were measured at several sites in the vicinity of newly built experimental salt-marsh islands on the tidal flat. Meteorological measurements were conducted from a weather station (WS, https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.870988), oceanographic conditions were sampled through a bottom-mounted recording current meter (RCM, https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.877265) and a bottom-mounted tide and wave recorder (TWR, https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.877258). Tide data are essential in calculating flooding duration and flooding frequency with respect to different salt-marsh elevation zones. Data loggers (DL) for measuring the water level (DL-W, https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.877267), temperature (DL-T, https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.877257), light intensity (DL-L, https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.877256) and conductivity (DL-C, https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.877266) were deployed at different elevational zones on the experimental islands and the investigated salt-marsh plots. A data availability of 80% for 17 out of 23 sensors was achieved. Results showed the influence of seasonal and tidal dynamics on the experimental islands. Nearby salt-marsh plots exhibited some differences, e.g., in temperature dynamics. Thus, a consistent, multi-parameter, long-term dataset is available as a basis for further biodiversity and ecosystem functioning studies

Properties of the quaternary half-metal-type Heusler alloy Co2_2Mn1−x_{1-x}Fex_xSi

This work reports on the bulk properties of the quaternary Heusler alloy Co$_2$Mn$_{1-x}$Fe$_x$Si with the Fe concentration $x=$. All samples, which were prepared by arc melting, exhibit $L2_1$ long range order over the complete range of Fe concentration. Structural and magnetic properties of Co$_2$Mn$_{1-x}$Fe$_x$Si Heusler alloys were investigated by means of X-ray diffraction, high and low temperature magnetometry, M{\"o\ss}bauer spectroscopy, and differential scanning calorimetry. The electronic structure was explored by means of high energy photo emission spectroscopy at about 8 keV photon energy. This ensures true bulk sensitivity of the measurements. The magnetization of the Fe doped Heusler alloys is in agreement with the values of the magnetic moments expected for a Slater-Pauling like behavior of half-metallic ferromagnets. The experimental findings are discussed on the hand of self-consistent calculations of the electronic and magnetic structure. To achieve good agreement with experiment, the calculations indicate that on-site electron-electron correlation must be taken into account, even at low Fe concentration. The present investigation focuses on searching for the quaternary compound where the half-metallic behavior is stable against outside influences. Overall, the results suggest that the best candidate may be found at an iron concentration of about 50%.Comment: 26 pages, 9 figures Phys. Rev. B accepte

Feasibility study - 30 watt per pound roll-up solar array Quarterly technical report, 1 Jul. - 30 Sep. 1967

Configuration, rod tradeoff, and deployment parameter studies for design of solar panel arra

Completely compensated ferrimagnetism and sublattice spin crossing in the half-metallic Heusler compound Mn1.5FeV0.5Al

The Slater-Pauling rule states that L21 Heusler compounds with 24 valence electrons do never exhibit a total spin magnetic moment. In case of strongly localized magnetic moments at one of the atoms (here Mn) they will exhibit a fully compensated half-metallic ferrimagnetic state instead, in particular, when symmetry does not allow for antiferromagnetic order. With aid of magnetic and anomalous Hall effect measurements it is experimentally demonstrated that Mn1.5V0.5FeAl follows such a scenario. The ferrimagnetic state is tuned by the composition. A small residual magnetization, that arises due to a slight mismatch of the magnetic moments in the different sublattices results in a pronounced change of the temperature dependence of the ferrimagnet. A compensation point is confirmed by observation of magnetic reversal and sign change of the anomalous Hall effect. Theoretical models are presented that correlate the electronic structure and the compensation mechanisms of the different half-metallic ferrimagnetic states in the Mn-V-Fe-Al Heusler system.Comment: Under revie

Hall effect in laser ablated Co_2(Mn,Fe)Si thin films

Pulsed laser deposition was employed to grow thin films of the Heusler compounds Co_2MnSi and Co_2FeSi. Epitaxial growth was realized both directly on MgO (100) and on a Cr or Fe buffer layer. Structural analysis by x-ray and electron diffraction shows for both materials the ordered L2_1 structure. Bulk magnetization was determined with a SQUID magnetometer. The values agree with the Slater-Pauling rule for half-metallic Heusler compounds. On the films grown directly on the substrate measurements of the Hall effect have been performed. The normal Hall effect is nearly temperature independent and points towards a compensated Fermi surface. The anomalous contribution is found to be dominated by skew scattering. A remarkable sign change of both normal and anomalous Hall coefficients is observed on changing the valence electron count from 29 (Mn) to 30 (Fe).Comment: 9 pages, 6 figures submitted to J Phys