From Social Simulation to Integrative System Design

As the recent financial crisis showed, today there is a strong need to gain "ecological perspective" of all relevant interactions in socio-economic-techno-environmental systems. For this, we suggested to set-up a network of Centers for integrative systems design, which shall be able to run all potentially relevant scenarios, identify causality chains, explore feedback and cascading effects for a number of model variants, and determine the reliability of their implications (given the validity of the underlying models). They will be able to detect possible negative side effect of policy decisions, before they occur. The Centers belonging to this network of Integrative Systems Design Centers would be focused on a particular field, but they would be part of an attempt to eventually cover all relevant areas of society and economy and integrate them within a "Living Earth Simulator". The results of all research activities of such Centers would be turned into informative input for political Decision Arenas. For example, Crisis Observatories (for financial instabilities, shortages of resources, environmental change, conflict, spreading of diseases, etc.) would be connected with such Decision Arenas for the purpose of visualization, in order to make complex interdependencies understandable to scientists, decision-makers, and the general public.Comment: 34 pages, Visioneer White Paper, see http://www.visioneer.ethz.c

How to create an innovation accelerator

Abstract.: The purpose of this White Paper of the EU Support Action "Visioneer” (see www.visioneer.ethz.ch) is to address the following goals: 1. Identify new ways of publishing, evaluating, and reporting scientific progress. 2. Promote ICT solutions to increase the awareness of new emerging trends. 3. Invent tools to enhance Europe's innovation potential. 4. Develop new strategies to support a sustainable technological development. 5. Lay the foundations for new ways to reach societal benefits and respond to industrial needs using IC

From social data mining to forecasting socio-economic crises

Abstract.: The purpose of this White Paper of the EU Support Action "Visioneer”(see www.visioneer.ethz.ch) is to address the following goals: 1. Develop strategies to quickly increase the objective knowledge about social and economic systems. 2. Describe requirements for efficient large-scale scientific data mining of anonymized social and economic data. 3. Formulate strategies how to collect stylized facts extracted from large data set. 4. Sketch ways how to successfully build up centers for computational social science. 5. Propose plans how to create centers for risk analysis and crisis forecasting. 6. Elaborate ethical standards regarding the storage, processing, evaluation, and publication of social and economic dat

From social simulation to integrative system design

Abstract.: The purpose of this White Paper of the EU Support Action "Visioneer” (see www.visioneer.ethz.ch) is to address the following goals: 1.Develop strategies to build up social simulation capacities.2.Suggest ways to build up an "artificial societies” community that aims at simulating real and alternative societies by means of supercomputers, grid or cloud computing.3.Derive proposals to establish centers for integrative systems desig

Perceived Relative Income and Preferences for Public Good Provision

Guided by a theoretical framework, we study how perceived relative income affects preferences for public goods. In a randomized survey experiment, we inform respondents from India of their official income rank and elicit preferences for air quality, including actual contributions to environmental initiatives. Right-wing supporters withdraw contributions when perceived relative income increases. The effect coincides with diminished health concerns and lower intentions to utilize private protection measures against air pollution. In contrast, center-left supporters do not reduce contributions. A second survey experiment demonstrates the causality of the relationship using a novel treatment that exogenously shifts relative income perceptions

Environmental Protection and Labor Market Composition

This paper investigates the long-term impacts of protected area management on the labor market participation and composition of the affected population. We study changes spanning two decades in the Western Ghats region of India, one of the key global biodiversity hotspots with the highest population density. Our findings indicate a noteworthy shift toward non-farm employment. Additionally, our research unveils a marked trend towards irregular income patterns: eco-development initiatives appear to have resulted in a significant decline in year-round employment coupled with a corresponding rise in employment for less than six months a year. The primary mechanism we identify is a distinct change in land use patterns, whereby villages under the scope of eco-development initiatives manifest a substantial transition from irrigated to rainfed agricultural land, known to be conducive to seasonal employment. Following these changes, lower consumption levels and higher poverty rates persist in the affected population compared to surrounding areas

Strategic Ignorance and Perceived Control

Information can trigger unpleasant emotions. As a result, individuals might be tempted to strategically ignore it. We experimentally investigate whether increasing perceived control can mitigate strategic ignorance. Participants from India were presented with a choice to receive information about the health risk associated with air pollution and were later asked to recall it. Perceived control leads to a substantial improvement in information recall. We find that optimists react most to perceived control, both with a reduction in information avoidance and an increase in information recall. This latter result is supported by a US sample. A theoretical framework rationalizes our findings

Understanding, creating, and managing complex techno-socio-economic systems: Challenges and perspectives

Abstract.: This contribution reflects on the comments of Peter Allen [1], Bikas K. Chakrabarti [2], Péter Érdi [3], Juval Portugali [4], Sorin Solomon [5], and Stefan Thurner [6] on three White Papers (WP) of the EU Support Action Visioneer (www.visioneer.ethz.ch). These White Papers are entitled "From Social Data Mining to Forecasting Socio-Economic Crises” (WP 1) [7], "From Social Simulation to Integrative System Design” (WP 2) [8], and "How to Create an Innovation Accelerator” (WP 3) [9]. In our reflections, the need and feasibility of a "Knowledge Accelerator” is further substantiated by fundamental considerations and recent events around the globe. newpara The Visioneer White Papers propose research to be carried out that will improve our understanding of complex techno-socio-economic systems and their interaction with the environment. Thereby, they aim to stimulate multi-disciplinary collaborations between ICT, the social sciences, and complexity science. Moreover, they suggest combining the potential of massive real-time data, theoretical models, large-scale computer simulations and participatory online platforms. By doing so, it would become possible to explore various futures and to expand the limits of human imagination when it comes to the assessment of the often counter-intuitive behavior of these complex techno-socio-economic-environmental systems. In this contribution, we also highlight the importance of a pluralistic modeling approach and, in particular, the need for a fruitful interaction between quantitative and qualitative research approaches. newpara In an appendix we briefly summarize the concept of the FuturICT flagship project, which will build on and go beyond the proposals made by the Visioneer White Papers. EU flagships are ambitious multi-disciplinary high-risk projects with a duration of at least 10 years amounting to an envisaged overall budget of 1 billion EUR [10]. The goal of the FuturICT flagship initiative is to understand and manage complex, global, socially interactive systems, with a focus on sustainability and resilienc