PROGNOSIS OF MONTHLY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN THE EUROPEAN UNION THROUGH METHODS BASED ON ECONOMETRIC MODELS

In this paper we propose the prognosis of the unemployment rate in the European Union through the Box-Jenkins method and the TRAMO/SEATS method as well as the detection of the method which proves to provide the best results. The monthly unemployment rate in the European Union is affected by seasonal variations of deterministic and stochastic nature. The prognosis through the Box-Jenkins nature supposes the separate consideration of seasonal variations, according to their specific nature. The stochastic seasonal variations are modelled and prognosticated simultaneously with the other components of the time series, based on the generating stochastic process. The prognosis of the monthly unemployment rate in the European Union through the TRAMO/SEATS methods is done by aggregating the individual prognoses of the components of the time series, obtained according to the stochastic processes models that generate them.seasonal variations, stochastic process, moving average, prognosis, performance indicators of the prognosis

A STATISTICAL APPROACH OF THE SPATIAL-TEMPORAL VARIABILITY OF A PHENOMENON USING A RO-EU COMPOSITE INDEX

This study aims at presenting a new computation index, which simultaneously measures the time and space variation of the various economic indices. The elaboration method of the space-time index is based on a matrix construct, the time and space variation of the analyzed economic index being represented via a system of vectors in plane. The practical application of the compound index is exemplified by employing the data on the growth rate of the GDP/inhabitant, calculated for two spatial entities: Romania and the European Union, for the period 1999-2008. The obtained findings confirm the fact that the proposed space-time index is a good analysis tool for the measurement of the time and space variation related to the various economic indices, as well as for testing the economic convergence for discrete time moments.space-time index; convergence; economic shock.

Employment rate prognosis on the basis of the development environment trend displayed by years-clusters

The authors analyze the dynamics of the employment rate in Romania and propose a forecast model for it. In the paper we start with the hypothesis that the dynamics of the employment rate has a specific trend displayed by years-clusters differentiated on the value and the sign of the dynamics indexes of the phenomena by which we define the economic environment. The forecast method that we propose takes into consideration the environment conditions in which the studied phenomenon evolves and it implies the use of statistical methods of multivariate analysis (Principal Component Analysis and Discriminant Analysis). The application of such a forecast method supposes an algorithm that implies several stages: (1) the evaluation and synthesis of the inter-relations among the phenomena by which we describe the development environment employment rate dynamics; (2) the identification of the years-cluster to which the desired forecast horizon is classified; (3) the estimation of the employment rate dynamics for the specified forecast horizon. The proposed forecast model, examining the development environment of the influence factors, may be used for simulating forecast alternatives that can be considered for founding the economic development strategies.employment rate, transition, Romania, influence factors, principal component analysis, discriminant analysis

Inequalities in health status of world population

Abstract: Objectives The paper aims to study the regional variation in population health at world level. It focuses on the analysis of the influence of determinant factors, such as geographic region and income, on health. Prior Work If previous studies on health refer to a specific group of countries, the paper expands the analysis of health status to world countries. Based on prior findings from the literature regarding the factors that affect health, the paper considers two main determinants, income and geographic region. Approach The health status of the population is assessed through a widely used indicator, namely life expectancy at birth, observed for a sample of 193 countries, in 2009. For the analysis of variation of life expectancy among world regions we apply the ANOVA and contrasts methods. We test the differences in life expectancy for different groups of countries. Results The results show that high income countries have the highest average life expectancy. Moreover, life expectancy in European countries is higher than American countries, while African countries have the lowest life expectancy compared to the rest of the world. Implications The existence of differences in life expectancy among world countries reveal the need for differentiated health policies in order to eradicate factors that have negative effects on population health. Value The paper allows to identify the regions that are best performers in health and to explain the differences in health between countries grouped by income level and geographic position

Statistical evaluation of spatial concentration of unemployment by gender

This paper studies the spatial distribution of unemployment by gender, in the counties of Romania, in 2008.The Lorenz curve and Gini index are used to identify a pattern of spatial concentration of unemployment, differentiated by gender. Evaluation of gender differences in unemployment spatial concentration model shows significant differences. There is a greater spatial concentration of unemployment for female population. Based on results of grouping counties by cluster analysis applied for unemployment rate, one could explain the gender differences in spatial concentration correlated with spatial distribution of the workforce and the characteristics of territorial development of counties in Romania

Statistical evaluation of spatial concentration of unemployment by gender

This paper studies the spatial distribution of unemployment by gender, in the counties of Romania, in 2008.The Lorenz curve and Gini index are used to identify a pattern of spatial concentration of unemployment, differentiated by gender. Evaluation of gender differences in unemployment spatial concentration model shows significant differences. There is a greater spatial concentration of unemployment for female population. Based on results of grouping counties by cluster analysis applied for unemployment rate, one could explain the gender differences in spatial concentration correlated with spatial distribution of the workforce and the characteristics of territorial development of counties in Romania

Employment rate prognosis on the basis of the development environment trend displayed by years-clusters

The authors analyze the dynamics of the employment rate in Romania and propose a forecast model for it. In the paper we start with the hypothesis that the dynamics of the employment rate has a specific trend displayed by years-clusters differentiated on the value and the sign of the dynamics indexes of the phenomena by which we define the economic environment. The forecast method that we propose takes into consideration the environment conditions in which the studied phenomenon evolves and it implies the use of statistical methods of multivariate analysis (Principal Component Analysis and Discriminant Analysis). The application of such a forecast method supposes an algorithm that implies several stages: (1) the evaluation and synthesis of the inter-relations among the phenomena by which we describe the development environment employment rate dynamics; (2) the identification of the years-cluster to which the desired forecast horizon is classified; (3) the estimation of the employment rate dynamics for the specified forecast horizon. The proposed forecast model, examining the development environment of the influence factors, may be used for simulating forecast alternatives that can be considered for founding the economic development strategies

Employment rate prognosis on the basis of the development environment trend displayed by years-clusters

The authors analyze the dynamics of the employment rate in Romania and propose a forecast model for it. In the paper we start with the hypothesis that the dynamics of the employment rate has a specific trend displayed by years-clusters differentiated on the value and the sign of the dynamics indexes of the phenomena by which we define the economic environment. The forecast method that we propose takes into consideration the environment conditions in which the studied phenomenon evolves and it implies the use of statistical methods of multivariate analysis (Principal Component Analysis and Discriminant Analysis). The application of such a forecast method supposes an algorithm that implies several stages: (1) the evaluation and synthesis of the inter-relations among the phenomena by which we describe the development environment employment rate dynamics; (2) the identification of the years-cluster to which the desired forecast horizon is classified; (3) the estimation of the employment rate dynamics for the specified forecast horizon. The proposed forecast model, examining the development environment of the influence factors, may be used for simulating forecast alternatives that can be considered for founding the economic development strategies

Influence of ecological foliar fertilizers on yield and morphometric parameters in cultivated medicinal and aromatic plants (basil, marigold, artichoke)

The significance of cultivating aromatic and medicinal plants in ecological settings derives also from the fact that the usage of such species implies direct contact with humans, through consumption or otherwise. Enhanced knowledge of herbs and spices and their ecological cropping is required for a better exploitation of their outstanding properties and which are based on biologically active substances such as alkaloids, phenolic compounds or essential oils. This paper includes the results of the research conducted within UASVM Iasi, Faculty of Agronomy, focused on the influence of ecological foliar fertilizers (Fylo®, Geolino Plants&Flowers®, Cropmax®, Fitokondi®) on the yield and morphological indices on medicinal and aromatic plants: basil, marigold and artichoke. Our results showed positive effects of ecological foliar fertilizers on the investigated plant species, especially on the yield of fresh herbs