Multivariate geometric autoregressive and autoregressive moving average models

We present Autoregressive (AR) and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) processes with multivariate geometric (MG) distribution. The theory of positive dependence is used to show that in many cases, multivariate geometric autoregressive (MGAR) and multivariate autoregressive moving average (MGARMA) models consist of associated random variables. We also provide a special case of the multivariate geometric autoregressive model in which it is stationary and has multivariate geometric distribution

The Impacts of Oil Price and Exchange Rate on Food Prices in Nigeria

This empirical research examined the interconnecting relationship between oil price, exchange rate and food prices in Nigeria. The study applied annual time series data from 1972 to 2016. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) techniques were used in the process of estimating the model. The main results disclosed that there is a long run association among the considered variables. The error correction term indicates significant negative sign. Among the two independent variables in the model, exchange rate is affecting food price more than the oil price counterpart since some of the food items are imported. The result has robust implication on policy recommendations in Nigeria. Food production has a vital role in influencing food prices in Nigeria. The Central Bank of Nigeria must consider exchange rate as a factor influencing food price in its quest for achieving inflation target. Keywords Oil price; exchange rate; food price; ARDL; Nigeria DOI: 10.7176/JESD/10-8-08 Publication date: April 30th 201

The Role of Trade Openness and Oil Price on Exchange Rate: ARDL Bound Testing Evidence from Nigeria

The nexus between oil price and exchange rate has been explored widely in the theoretical and empirical literatures revealing factors that influence exchange rate fluctuation. Therefore, this research examines the role of trade openness and oil price on the behaviour of exchange rate in Nigeria. We applied Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration based on annual time series data from 1982 to 2014. The variables are cointegrated indicating that they exhibit long run relationship. Also, the estimated value of the error correction term is less than one, negative but significant. Exchange rate was found to be negatively dependent on trade openness in both the short run and the long run, while oil price was found to be negative and insignificant in the long run. The policy implication of these findings is that high dependency on oil price is not favorable to exchange rate determination in Nigeria. There is need to diversify the source of foreign revenue especially to the non-oil sectors such as agriculture, mines and industry and manufacturing to reduce the extreme burden and the negative consequences of over dependence on oil and the volatility in its price on Nigeria’s economy. Keywords: exchange rate, oil price, trade openness, error correction ter

Oil price changes and trade openness in Nigeria: linear and nonlinear approach

This empirical research examines the relations between trade openness and oil price changes in Nigeria between the period of 1982 to 2014 using linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags models. The ARDL bounds test shows the existence of cointegration, we further estimate the model using NARDL specification and discovered the existence of a long-run relationship among the variable that means they are cointegrated in nonlinearity. In the long run, the study found that when the oil price rises trad e openness affected significantly. But, when oil price dropped is not significant. The policymakers should consider the different policy between increases and decreases in oil prices when oil price increases have to monitor the degree of open-up than when oil prices dropped. Ordinarily, the foreign trade in oil producing countries is protected by trade restrictions during low oil price The policy has to take major on the exchange rate policy since depreciation can make the trade more open-up

The Impact Population Growth on Disaggregate Energy Generation Source from (Hydro Power, Natural Gas, Oil and Coal Source) in Nigeria

This research tries to investigate the impact of population growth on energy generation in Nigeria using Auto Regressive Distributive Lag (ARDL). The study employed an econometric methodology involving the use of unit root test, cointegration test technique. The study use of different source of electricity production in Nigeria such as hydro power source (HPS), natural gas source (NGS), oil and coal sources (OCS) , as dependents variables which were regress against population and real gross domestic product (GDP) as explanatory variables which altogether serve as determinants of energy generation. The ARDL Bound test reveals that both the three equations under studies are cointegrated. Consequently, the study finds that the long run and short run dynamics of the variables involved. From the long run coefficients the study found that population growth has a positive and significant impact on energy generation from natural gas source, oil and coal source but negative impact on hydropower sources. Based on these findings some recommendations were made, Nigeria government should adequately project the growing rate of population in advance so as to generate volume of energy that will cater for the population so as to avoid the risk of energy shortage in Nigeria

Electricity Supply and Manufacturing Output in Nigeria: Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bound Testing Approach

Electricity has been identified as primary and independent factor of production in modern production process. Hence, this study explore the relationship between electricity supply and manufacturing sector’s output in Nigeria using time series data from 1971 to 2010. It adopts Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration. Our findings reveal long run relationship between the variables, and shows significant and negative error correction term. Manufacturing output is found to be positively dependent on electricity in both short run and long run, but only significant in the long run.The policy implication of these findings is that electricity supply must be increased if the productive capacity of the manufacturing sector is to be improved. More importantly, this is a prove that if the country is to achieve its economic vision of being among the 20 World industrialized economies in the year 2020, adequate and stable increase in electricity supply, particularly to the manufacturing sector, must remain an uncompromising policy. Keywords: Electricity Supply, Manufacturing Sector, Factors of Production, Outpu

Subsurface mapping of groundwater contamination pathway using geoelectric method at waste site of Kubanni Basin, Zaria, Kaduna State, Nigeria

Electrical resistivity Survey was carried out at Kubanni waste dumpsite of Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Kaduna state, Nigeria in order to study the groundwater contamination pathway. Vertical Electrical Sounding (VES) using Schlumberger array was carried out at fourteen (14) stations. Ohmega terrameter was used for data acquisition. The field data obtained has been analyzed using Computer Software (ipi2win)which gives an automatic interpretation of apparent resistivity. The VES result revealed the heterogeneous nature of the subsurface geologic sequence. The geologic sequence beneath the study area is composed of topsoil (sandy-clay and sandy-lateritic), weathered basement, fracture basement layer and fresh basement. The resistivity values of the layers ranges from 8.2Ωm to 2884Ωm. The extremely low resistivity variation in the weathered basement identify the present of contamination plume zones in the layer. However, fracture basement and fresh basement underlying the weathered basement show lateral variation in the basement resistivity. The result shows that the contamination plume zone has tendency to contaminate the ground water.Keywords: Contamination, Fracture basement, Fresh basement, Geoelectric, Groundwater, Leachate, Weathered and Vertical Electric Sounding (VES

Students’ Perception of Factors Influencing Teaching and Learning of Mathematics in Senior Secondary Schools in Maiduguri Metropolis, Borno State, Nigeria

This study examined students’ perception of factors influencing teaching and learning of mathematics in senior secondary schools in Maiduguri Metropolis of Borno State, Nigeria. The objectives of the study were to determine the extent to which students perceived: qualification, method of teaching, instructional materials and attitude of both teachers and students influence the teaching and learning of mathematics in senior secondary schools. The study used a sample of 1500 males and 1100 females students from six selected senior secondary schools in Maiduguri Metropolis, Borno State, Nigeria. The instrument used for data collection was a self-developed questionnaire measuring students' perception of factors influencing teaching and learning of mathematics. It had a reliability index of 0.81. To analyze the data collected, the research questions were answered using descriptive statistics such as simple frequency, mean and standard  deviation. The results indicated that qualification of mathematics teachers, teaching method, and instructional materials were highly perceived by students as important determinants of their success in learning. Also, students’ attitude towards mathematics teaching and learning was an important factor in the performance of students.  Based on the results of this study, it was recommended that: There is need to improve the quality of mathematics teachers.  Government of Borno State should embark on serious in-service training of mathematics teachers to equip them with skills for teaching mathematics in secondary schools. Also there is need for mathematics teachers to try and understand the perceptions of their students and try to adopt instructional strategies that whatever student perceived as easy would really turn out to be easy and whatever is difficult may be properly addressed to motivate and encourage students to see the need in learning mathematics and improve their performance. Keywords: Students' perception, Teachers' qualification, Teaching method, Mathematics                teaching, Mathematics learnin

Effectiveness of Demonstration and Lecture Methods in Learning Concept in Economics among Secondary School Students in Borno State, Nigeria

This study investigated the Effectiveness of Demonstration and Lecture Methods in Learning concepts in Economics among Secondary School Students in Borno state, Nigeria. Five objectives: to determine the effectiveness of demonstration method in learning economics concepts among secondary school students in Borno state, determine the effectiveness of lecture method in learning economics concepts among secondary school students in Borno state, compare the effectiveness of demonstration and lecture methods in learning economics concepts among secondary school students in Borno state, determine the effectiveness  of demonstration method on male and female students in academic performance in learning economics concepts among secondary school students in Borno state and determine the effectiveness of lecture method on male and female students in academic performance in learning economics concepts among secondary school students in Borno state.  Three hypotheses were formulated:  there is no significant difference in academic performance between students exposed to demonstration and lecture methods in learning economics concepts, there is no significant different in academic performance between male and female students exposed to demonstration method, there is no significant difference in academic performance between male and female students exposed to lecture method to guide the study.  Quasi-experimental Design was used.  It was carried out in a classroom setting where classes were intact.  The sample population used were SS1 students who were selected for the two groups in two schools, fifty-two students for each school; twenty-six students for each group that was thirteen males and thirteen females. Topics were selected from SS1 senior secondary school syllabus prepared by West African Examination Council (WAEC) which was considered as standardized test and was used for the treatment.  Twenty-five achievement test objective was conducted, pre-test, post-test were collected and test were given for the groups, before and after treatments.  After treatment results were collected and analysed by descriptive statistic of mean, standard deviation and inferential statistics of t-test. The results of the study revealed that demonstration and lecture methods in learning concepts in economics among secondary school students in Borno state were effective. When the two methods were compared, demonstration method was more effective than lecture method in learning concepts in economics among secondary school students in Borno state.  Demonstration groups results were significantly higher than lecture groups method.  It was recommended that economics teachers should maximize the use of demonstration method while teaching and learning certain economics concepts.  Moreover, economic teachers should be given the opportunity for in-service training, workshops, seminars and conferences to update their knowledge in methods of teaching and learning economics concepts. Keywords: Demonstration methods, Lecture methods, learning concept

Asymmetric impacts of oil price on inflation: an empirical study of African OPEC member countries

This study investigates the asymmetric impacts of oil price changes on inflation in Algeria, Angola, Libya, and Nigeria. Three different kinds of oil price data were applied in this study: the actual spot oil price of individual countries, the OPEC reference basket oil price, and an average of the Brent, WTI, and Dubai oil price. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) dynamic panels were used to estimate the short- and long-term impacts. Also, we partitioned the oil price into positive and negative changes to capture asymmetric impacts and found that both the positive and negative oil price changes positively influenced inflation. However, the impact was found to be more significant when the oil prices dropped. We also found that the money supply, the exchange rate, and the gross domestic product (GDP) are positively related to inflation, while food production is negatively related to inflation. Accordingly, policy-makers should be cautious when formulating policies between the positive and negative changes in oil prices, as it was shown that inflation increased when the oil price dropped. Additionally, the use of a contractionary monetary policy would help to reduce the inflation rate. Lastly, we suggest that the government should encourage domestic food production, both in quantity and quality, to reduce inflation