An Application of Time Series Analysis in Modeling Monthly Rainfall Data for Maiduguri, North Eastern Nigeria

Time series analysis and forecasting has become a major tool in different applications in meteorological phenomena such as rainfall, humidity, temperature, draught and so on; and environmental fields. Among the most effective approaches for analyzing time series data is the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model introduced by Box and Jenkins. In this study, Box-Jenkins methodology was used to model monthly rainfall data taken from Maiduguri Airport Station for the period from 1981 to 2011 with a total of 372 readings. ARIMA (1, 1,0) model was developed. This model was used to forecast monthly rainfall for the upcoming 44 months (3 years 8 months) to help decision makers establish priorities in terms of water demand management and agriculture. Thus, ARIMA (1, 1,0) provides a good fit for the rainfall data of Maiduguri and is appropriate for short term forecast.Key Words: Time Series Analysis, Rainfall Model, Forecasting, ARIMA

A Qualitative Study of Perceived Risk for HIV Transmission among Police Officers in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.

Understanding people's views about HIV transmission by investigating a specific population may help to design effective HIV prevention strategies. In addition, knowing the inherent sexual practices of such a population, as well as the risky circumstances that may facilitate HIV transmission, is crucial for the said strategies to become effective. In this article, we report how police officers in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, perceived the problem of HIV and AIDS in their local context, particularly in relation to unsafe sexual practices. The study was done with the view to recommending ways by which HIV transmission could be minimised within the police force. The study was conducted among members of the police force in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Eight focus group discussions (FGDs) were conducted, with a total of 66 participants who were mixed in terms of age, gender, and marital status. Some of these were caregivers to patients with AIDS. Data were analysed using the interpretive description approach. The participants believed that both individual sexual behaviour and work-related circumstances were sources of HIV infection. They also admitted that they were being tempted to engage in risky sexual practices because of the institutional rules that prohibit officers from getting married during their training and for three years after. Nevertheless, as members of the Police Force, they stressed the fact that the risky sexual behaviour that exposes them to HIV is not limited to the force; it is rather a common problem that is faced by the general population. However, they complained, the nature of their job exposes them to road accident victims, subjecting them further to possible infection, especially when they have to handle these road accident casualties without proper protective gear. Individual sexual behaviour and job-related circumstances are worth investigating if proper advice is to be given to the police regarding HIV prevention strategies. In order to improve the lives of these police officers, there is a need to review the existing institutional rules and practices to accommodate individual sexual needs. In addition, improving their working environment may minimize the risk of HIV transmission from handling casualties in emergency situations

Association of intestinal helminthic infection and nutritional status of primary school children in Gombe State, Nigeria

Background: Intestinal helminthic infections are among the commonest infections worldwide. It often affects the poorest communities and has similar geographic distribution with malnutrition. Intestinal helminthic infection contributes to undernutrition through subtle reduction in digestion and absorption of food, chronic inflammation and loss of nutrients. The objective of this study is to determine the prevalence of intestinal helminthic infection and its relationship with nutritional status of primary school children in Gombe, Gombe State, Nigeria. Methodology: This was a cross sectional study of 350 pupils selected through multistage random sampling technique from 24 primary schools in Gombe, Gombe State, Nigeria from July 2018 to January 2019. Demographic information including age, gender, height, and weight were collected from each participant with a designed collection form. The data were analysed using SPSS version 24.0, and presented as frequency distribution and mean ± SD. The Chi-square test (with Odds ratio and 95% confidence interval) was used to test for association between prevalence of helminthiasis and factors such as gender, age group and school type. A p value of less than 0.05 was considered statistically significant at 95% confidence interval. Results: The prevalence of intestinal helminthic infection was 23.7% (83/350). Eighty (96.4%) of the 83 infected pupils were in public schools while only 3 (3.6%) were in private schools (p<0.001). The prevalence of helminthiasis was significantly higher in underweight pupils (34%, OR=2.113, p=0.0065)) and significantly lower (5.4%, OR=0.1637, p=0.0037) in overweight pupils while the prevalence was not significantly associated with normal weight (p=0.5482) or obesity (p=1.000). Conclusions: Intestinal helminthic infection is a public health problem in children with adverse significant relationship with nutritional status. Provision of toilet facilities in schools and periodic de-worming of pupils aimed at reducing loss of nutrients from intestinal helminthiasis are recommended

DAMPAK AGROWISATA D’MOOAT STRAWBERI TERHADAP PENDAPATAN RUMAH TANGGA PETANI HORTIKULTURA DI KECAMATAN MOOAT KABUPATEN BOLAANG MONGONDOW TIMUR, SULAWESI UTARA

Kegiatan Agrowisata dapat menimbulkan dampak terhadap lingkungan dan masyarakat, baik dampak bersifat negatif maupun dampak positif.Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk Menganalisis dampak Agrowisata D’Mooat Strawberry pada peningkatan pendapatan rumah tangga petani di Kecamatan Mooat, Kabupaten Bolaang Mongondow Timur. Metode analisis data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah pendekatan matematis untuk menghitung biaya produksi, penerimaan dan pendapatan.Sedangkan analisis kuantitatif-deskriptif berupa penyajian tabel-tabel, rasio, dan presentase digunakan untuk menjelaskan dampak Agrowisata D’Mooat Strawberi terhadap pendapatan rumah tangga petani hortikultura di Kecamatan Mooat, Kabupaten Bolaang Mongondow Timur. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa Agrowisata D’Mooat Strawberi berdampak positif terhadap pendapatan rumah tangga petani hortikultura sawi dan bunga kol yang berada di Kecamatan Mooat, Kabupaten Bolaang Mongondow Timur, Sulawesi Utara

Catalytic tar conversion and the prospective use of iron-based catalyst in the future development of biomass gasification: a review

This research article published by Springer Nature Switzerland AG., 2020Biomass is a promising renewable energy source which is available globally, mostly in developing countries where access to clean and affordable energy is a critical problem. Biomass gasification is an interesting technology that can convert biomasses to a more versatile fuel known as syngas, the energy which can substitute conventional fossil fuels in the future. Syngas can amenably be combusted to produce power and heat as well as a feedstock for synthesis of chemicals and other fuels. The biomass gasification is facing severe operational challenges, one of the problems being tar formation and its removal techniques. Tar condenses at reduced temperature, thus causing blockage in the downstream equipment such as compressors and engines. Many studies have considered syngas cleaning by physical removal and thermal cracking unsuitable as they need downstream processing of scrub liquor and utilizes a part of the produced gas in maintaining the thermal cracking temperature, respectively. The utilization of catalysts has been an interesting focus; however, it has not yet been fruitful as many of the developed catalysts deactivate rapidly, and they are expensive or toxic. The motives of the current study are to review tar formation characteristics and trends on catalytic conversion. In addition, the study elucidates the fascinating behaviour of metallic and oxides of the iron-based catalyst under different syngas composition (oxidizing and reducing environments). The behaviours of the iron-based catalyst indicate its fundamental role in developing a catalyst for tar cracking with respect to less toxic, inexpensive, abundant, and regenerable alternatives

Efficacy, persistence and vector susceptibility to pirimiphos-methyl (Actellic® 300CS) insecticide for indoor residual spraying in Zanzibar

Background Indoor residual spraying (IRS) of households with insecticide is a principal malaria vector control intervention in Zanzibar. In 2006, IRS using the pyrethroid lambda-cyhalothrine was introduced in Zanzibar. Following detection of pyrethroid resistance in 2010, an insecticide resistance management plan was proposed, and IRS using bendiocarb was started in 2011. In 2014, bendiocarb was replaced by pirimiphos methyl. This study investigated the residual efficacy of pirimiphos methyl (Actellic® 300CS) sprayed on common surfaces of human dwellings in Zanzibar. Methods The residual activity of Actellic 300CS was determined over 9 months through bioassay tests that measured the mortality of female Anopheles mosquitoes, exposed to sprayed surfaces under a WHO cone. The wall surfaces included; mud wall, oil or water painted walls, lime washed wall, un-plastered cement block wall and stone blocks. Insecticide susceptibility testing was done to investigate the resistance status of local malaria vectors against Actellic 300CS using WHO protocols; Anopheline species were identified using PCR methods. Results Baseline tests conducted one-day post-IRS revealed 100 % mortality on all sprayed surfaces. The residual efficacy of Actellic 300CS was maintained on all sprayed surfaces up to 8 months post-IRS. However, the bioassay test conducted 9 months post-IRS showed the 24 h mortality rate to be ≤80 % for lime wash, mud wall, water paint and stone block surfaces. Only oil paint surface retained the recommended residual efficacy beyond 9 months post-IRS, with mortality maintained at ≥97 %. Results of susceptibility tests showed that malaria vectors in Zanzibar were fully (100 %) susceptible to Actellic 300CS. The predominant mosquito vector species was An. arabiensis (76.0 %) in Pemba and An. gambiae (83.5 %) in Unguja. Conclusion The microencapsulated formulation of pirimiphos methyl (Actellic 300CS) is a highly effective and appropriate insecticide for IRS use in Zanzibar as it showed a relatively prolonged residual activity compared to other products used for the same purpose. The insecticide extends the residual effect of IRS thereby making it possible to effectively protect communities with a single annual spray round reducing overall costs. The insecticide proved to be a useful alternative in insecticide resistance management plans