Investigating Inflation Dynamics and Structural Change with an Adaptive ARFIMA Approach

Previous models of monthly CPI inflation time series have focused on possible regime shifts, non-linearities and the feature of long memory. This paper proposes a new time series model, named Adaptive ARFIMA; which appears well suited to describe inflation and potentially other economic time series data. The Adaptive ARFIMA model includes a time dependent intercept term which follows a Flexible Fourier Form. The model appears to be capable of succesfully dealing with various forms of breaks and discontinities in the conditional mean of a time series. Simulation evidence justifies estimation by approximate MLE and model specfication through robust inference based on QMLE. The Adaptive ARFIMA model when supplemented with conditional variance models is found to provide a good representation of the G7 monthly CPI inflation series.ARFIMA; FIGARCH, long memory, structural change, inflation, G7.

Non-carious cervical lesion and gingival recession: a literature review

Objetivo: Em pacientes com recessão gengival (GR) e lesão cervical não cariosa (NCCL), em termos de redução da recessão, recobrimento radicular, sensibilidade dentinária e estética: 1) A abordagem restauradora/cirúrgica combinada é mais eficaz que a abordagem cirúrgica sozinha ? 2) Nos pacientes tratados com a abordagem combinada, quais são os impactos de diferentes materiais restauradores ? Materiais e métodos: Ensaios clínicos randomizados foram pesquisados em dois bancos de dados. 12 publicações foram incluídas. No total foram selecionados 471 pacientes com recessão gengival de classe I ou II de Miller, com períodos de follow-up de até 24 meses. Resultados: A redução média de GR e o recobrimento médio dos estudos são, respectivamente, de cerca de 2,2 mm (± 0,69) e 89,7% (± 18,36) com o procedimento cirúrgico e 2,1 mm (± 0,64) e 86,1% (± 18,34) com o procedimento combinado. Além disso, ambos os procedimentos apresentaram uma redução significativa da hipersensibilidade dentinária e melhoria estética. No entanto, com a restauração, os resultados de sensibilidade foram próximos de zero. Em relação à estética, quando comparado com o ionomero de vidro modificado por resina, o compósito apresentou melhor estabilidade de cor após um ano. Conclusões: Tanto as abordagens combinada como a cirúrgica parecem ser eficazes para alcançar o recobrimento radicular. Ambas as técnicas podem reduzir a hipersensibilidade dentinária, mas em locais restaurados, essa redução é máxima. Ambas parecem induzir uma melhoria estética, embora, as restaurações com resinas compostas tendam a fornecer resultados ligeiramente mais estéticos, por outro lado, as restaurações de resina de ionômero parecem ser bem toleradas pelo ambiente periodontal.Aim: In patients with gingival recession (GR) and non-carious cervical lesion (NCCL), in terms of recession reduction, root coverage, dentin sensitivity and aesthetic: 1) Does the combined restorative/surgical approach is more effective than the surgical approach alone? 2) In patients treated with the combined approach, what are the impacts of different restorative materials? Materials and methods: Randomized clinical trials were searched in two databases. 12 publications were included. 471 patients with a Miller class I or II gingival recession were selected, with follow-up periods up to 24 months. Results: The mean GR reduction and the mean root coverage of the selected studies are respectively about 2,2 mm (± 0,69) and 89,7% (± 18,36) with the surgical procedure, and 2,1 mm (± 0,64) and 86,1% (± 18,34) with the combined procedure. Besides, both procedures presented a significant dentin hypersensitivity reduction and an aesthetic improvement. Nonetheless, with a restoration, the sensitivity scores were close to zero. Regarding the aesthetic, compared to resin modified glass ionomer, the resin composite showed a better color stability after one year. Conclusions: Both combined and surgical approaches seem to be as effective to achieve root coverage. Both techniques may reduce dentin hypersensitivity, but at restored sites, this reduction is maximal. Both procedures seem to induce an aesthetic improvement, although, when a restoration is performed, composite resins tend to provide slightly more aesthetic results. While ionomer resin restorations appear to be very well tolerated by the periodontal environment

Swelling behavior of compacted bentonite-sand mixture during water infiltration

A laboratory-based water infiltration test was conducted with compacted Calcigel bentonite-sand mixture (50:50) at room temperature to mimic the transient hydration of a backfill material in nuclear waste repository conditions. The test was performed with an innovative column-type experimental device, which facilitated the continuous and non-destructive measurements of temperature, relative humidity, water content and total stresses in both axial and lateral direction at various preselected locations along the height of soil sample. The effect of groundwater geochemistry on the bentonite hydration process was not considered in this study. The distilled water was supplied from the bottom-end under 15-kPa hydration pressure for a period of 349 days to mimic the water ingress from the host rock. The test results highlighted the hydration-induced heterogeneity in the material and its effect on the lateral swelling pressure development along the height of soil sample. The axial swelling pressure measurements revealed the factors, which affect the stress-transfer mechanism between both the ends. The simultaneous measurements of relative humidity and water content indicated the porosity redistribution close to the hydration-end during the test

Fine-scale Structures In Saturn\u27s Rings Waves, Wakes And Ghosts

The Cassini mission provided wonderful tools to explore Saturn, its satellites and its rings system. The UVIS instrument allowed stellar occultation observations of structures in the rings with the best resolution available (around 10 meters depending on geometry and navigation), bringing our understanding of the physics of the rings to the next level. In particular, we have been able to observe, dissect, model and test the interactions between the satellites and the rings. We first looked at kilometer-wide structures generated by resonances with satellites orbiting outside the main rings. The observation of structures in the C ring and their association with a few new resonances allowed us to estimate some constraints on the physical characteristics of the rings. However, most of our observed structures could not be explained with simple resonances with external satellites and some other mechanism has to be involved. We located four density waves associated with the Mimas 4:1, the Atlas 2:1, the Mimas 6:2 and the Pandora 4:2 Inner Lindblad Resonances and one bending wave excited by the Titan -1:0 Inner Vertical Resonance. We could estimate a range of surface mass density from 0.22 ([plus or minus]0.03) to 1.42 ([plus or minus]0.21) g cm[super-2] and mass extinction coefficient from 0.13 ([plus or minus]0.03) to 0.28 ([plus or minus]0.06) cm[super2] g[super-1]. These mass extinction coefficient values are higher than those found in the A ring (0.01 - 0.02 cm[super2] g[super-1]) and in the Cassini Division (0.07 - 0.12 cm[super2] g[super-1] from Colwell et al. (2009), implying smaller particle sizes in the C ring. We can therefore imagine that the particles composing these different rings have either different origins or that their size distributions are not primordial and have evolved differently.; Using numerical simulations for the propeller formation, we estimate that our observed moonlets belong to a population of bigger particles than the one we thought was composing the rings: Zebker et al. (1985) described the ring particles population as following a power-law size distribution with cumulative index around 1.75 in the Cassini Division and 2.1 in the C ring. We believe propeller boulders follow a power-law with a cumulative index of 0.6 in the C ring and 0.8 in the Cassini Division. The question of whether these boulders are young, ephemeral and accreted inside the Roche limit or long-lived and maybe formed outisde by fragmentation of a larger body before migrating inward in the disk, remains a mystery. Accretion and fragmentation process are not yet well constrained and we can hope that Cassini extended mission will still provide a lot of information about it.; We also estimate the mass of the C ring to be between 3.7 ([plus or minus]0.9) x 10[super16] kg and 7.9 ([plus or minus]2.0) x 10[super16] kg, equivalent to a moon of 28.0 ([plus or minus]2.3) km to 36.2 ([plus or minus]3.0) km radius (a little larger than Pan or Atlas) with a density comparable to the two moons (400 kg m[super-3]). From the wave damping length and the ring viscosity, we also estimate the vertical thickness of the C ring to be between 1.9 ([plus or minus]0.4) m and 5.6 ([plus or minus]1.4) m, which is consistent with the vertical thickness of the Cassini Division (2 - 20 m) from Tiscareno et al. (2007) and Colwell et al. (2009). Conducting similar analysis in the A, B rings and in the Cassini Division, we were able to estimate consistent masses with previous works for the these rings. We then investigated possible interactions between the rings and potential embedded satellites. Looking for satellite footprints, we estimated the possibility that some observed features in the Huygens Ringlet could be wakes of an embedded moon in the Huygens gap. We discredited the idea that these structures could actually be satellite wakes by estimating the possible position of such a satellite. Finally, we observed a whole population of narrow and clear holes in the C ring and the Cassini Division. Modeling these holes as depletion zones opened by the interaction of a moonlet inside the disk material (this signature is called a propeller ), we could estimate a distribution of the meter-sized to house-sized objects in these rings. Similar objects, though an order of magnitude larger, have been visually identified in the A ring. In the C ring, we have signatures of boulders which sizes are estimated between 1.5 and 14.5 m, whereas similar measures in the Cassini Division provide moonlet sizes between 0.36 and 58.1 m

Water balance estimation of the Campo de Cartagena watershed using hydrological modeling and remote sensing

This work uses hydrological modeling and remote sensing techniques to estimate the spatial and temporal patterns of the water balance of an intensively irrigated agricultural watershed in south-eastern Spain. Remote sensing-based vegetation indexes were used to estimate crop evapotranspiration rates and as an input in the model. Model outcomes give insight in the overall water account of the watershed. They highlight the critical role of the groundwater system in the water balance, and the differences between abstractions and recharge, depending on the hydrological conditions

Reference evapotranspiration of screenhouse‐grown crops

The reference evapotranspiration Eref was measured under three screenhouses and compared to outside Eref. The reduction with respect to outside Eref was quantified by means of two factors, rad and adv. rad was found to depend linearly on transmittance (), and adv on wind ratio (). A model was proposed for screenhouse Eref based on outside weather data, an