Semi-analytic forecasts for Roman -- the beginning of a new era of deep-wide galaxy surveys

The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope, NASA's next flagship observatory, will redefine deep-field galaxy survey with a field of view two orders of magnitude larger than Hubble and an angular resolution of matching quality. These future deep-wide galaxy surveys necessitate new simulations to forecast their scientific output and to optimise survey strategies. In this work, we present five realizations of 2-deg^2 lightcones, containing a total of >25 million simulated galaxies with -16 < MUV < -25 spanning z ~ 0 to 10. This dataset enables a new set of experiments with the impacts of survey size on the derived galaxy formation and cosmological constraints. The intrinsic and observable galaxy properties are predicted using a well-established, physics-based semi-analytic modelling approach. We provide forecasts for number density, cosmic SFR, field-to-field variance, and angular two-point correlation functions, and demonstrate how the future wide-field surveys will be able to improve these measurements relative to current generation surveys. We also present a comparison between these lightcones and others that have been constructed with empirical models. The mock lightcones are designed to facilitate the exploration of multi-instrument synergies and connecting with current generation instruments and legacy surveys. In addition to Roman, we also provide photometry for a number of other instruments on upcoming facilities, including Euclid and Rubin, as well as the instruments that are part of many legacy surveys. Full object catalogues and data tables for the results presented in this work are made available through a web-based, interactive portal https://www.simonsfoundation.org/semi-analytic-forecasts.Comment: 25 pages, 16 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRA

Extremely Red Galaxies at z = 5-9 with MIRI and NIRSpec:Dusty Galaxies or Obscured Active Galactic Nuclei?

We study a new population of extremely red objects (EROs) recently discovered by the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) based on their NIRCam colors F277W − F444W &gt; 1.5 mag. We find 37 EROs in the Cosmic Evolution Early Release Science Survey (CEERS) field with F444W &lt; 28 mag and photometric redshifts between 5 &lt; z &lt; 7, with median z = 6.9 − 1.6 + 1.0 . Surprisingly, despite their red long-wavelength colors, these EROs have blue short-wavelength colors (F150W − F200W ∼ 0 mag) indicative of bimodal spectral energy distributions (SEDs) with a red, steep slope in the rest-frame optical, and a blue, flat slope in the rest-frame UV. Moreover, all these EROs are unresolved, point-like sources in all NIRCam bands. We analyze the SEDs of eight of them with MIRI and NIRSpec observations using stellar population models and active galactic nucleus (AGN) templates. We find that dusty galaxies or obscured AGNs provide similarly good SED fits but different stellar properties: massive and dusty, log M ⋆ / M ⊙ ∼ 10 and A V ≳ 3 mag, or low mass and obscured, log M ⋆ / M ⊙ ∼ 7.5 and A V ∼ 0 mag, hosting an obscured quasi-stellar object (QSO). SED modeling does not favor either scenario, but their unresolved sizes are more suggestive of AGNs. If any EROs are confirmed to have log M ⋆ / M ⊙ ≳ 10.5, it would increase the pre-JWST number density at z &gt; 7 by up to a factor ∼60. Similarly, if they are QSOs with luminosities in the L bol &gt; 1045-46 erg s−1 range, their number would exceed that of bright blue QSOs by more than three orders of magnitude. Additional photometry at mid-infrared wavelengths will reveal the true nature of the red continuum emission in these EROs and will place this puzzling population in the right context of galaxy evolution.</p

Cosmic Evolution Early Release Science (CEERS) survey: The colour evolution of galaxies in the distant Universe

The wavelength-coverage and sensitivity of JWST now enables us to probe the rest-frame UV - optical spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of galaxies at high-redshift ($z>4$). From these SEDs it is, in principle, through SED fitting possible to infer key physical properties, including stellar masses, star formation rates, and dust attenuation. These in turn can be compared with the predictions of galaxy formation simulations allowing us to validate and refine the incorporated physics. However, the inference of physical properties, particularly from photometry alone, can lead to large uncertainties and potential biases. Instead, it is now possible, and common, for simulations to be \emph{forward-modelled} to yield synthetic observations that can be compared directly to real observations. In this work, we measure the JWST broadband fluxes and colours of a robust sample of $5<z<10$ galaxies using the Cosmic Evolution Early Release Science (CEERS) Survey. We then analyse predictions from a variety of models using the same methodology and compare the NIRCam/F277W magnitude distribution and NIRCam colours with observations. We find that the predicted and observed magnitude distributions are similar, at least at $58$ the distributions differ somewhat, though our observed sample size is small and thus susceptible to statistical fluctuations. Likewise, the predicted and observed colour evolution show broad agreement, at least at $5<z<8$. There is however some disagreement between the observed and modelled strength of the strong line contribution. In particular all the models fails to reproduce the F410M-F444W colour at $z>8$, though, again, the sample size is small here.Comment: 11 pages, 10 figures, submitted to MNRA

Near-infrared emission line diagnostics for AGN from the local Universe to redshift 3

Optical rest-frame spectroscopic diagnostics are usually employed to distinguish between star formation and AGN-powered emission. However, this method is biased against dusty sources, hampering a complete census of the AGN population across cosmic epochs. To mitigate this effect, it is crucial to observe at longer wavelengths in the rest-frame near-infrared (near-IR), which is less affected by dust attenuation and can thus provide a better description of the intrinsic properties of galaxies. AGN diagnostics in this regime have not been fully exploited so far, due to the scarcity of near-IR observations of both AGNs and star-forming galaxies, especially at redshifts higher than 0.5. Using Cloudy photoionization models, we identify new AGN - star formation diagnostics based on the ratio of bright near-infrared emission lines, namely [SIII] 9530 Angstrom, [CI] 9850 Angstrom, [PII] 1.188 $\mu m$, [FeII] $1.257 \mu m$, and [FeII] $1.64 \mu m$ to Paschen lines (either Pa$\gamma$ or Pa$\beta$), providing simple, analytical classification criteria. We apply these diagnostics to a sample of 64 star-forming galaxies and AGNs at 0 < z < 1, and 65 sources at 1 < z < 3 recently observed with JWST-NIRSpec in CEERS. We find that the classification inferred from the near-infrared is broadly consistent with the optical one based on the BPT and the [SII]/H$\alpha$ ratio. However, in the near-infrared, we find $\sim 60 \%$ more AGNs than in the optical (13 instead of 8), with 5 sources classified as 'hidden' AGNs, showing a larger AGN contribution at longer wavelengths, possibly due to the presence of optically thick dust. The diagnostics we present provide a promising tool to find and characterize AGNs from z=0 to z=3 with low and medium-resolution near-IR spectrographs in future surveys.Comment: Paper accepted for publication in A&A on 05/09/2023. Three public Github repositories include: (1) a table with emission line measurements for the paper sample : https://github.com/Anthony96/Line_measurements_nearIR , Cloudy emission line predictions for star-forming galaxies and AGN models : https://github.com/Anthony96/star-forming_models , https://github.com/Anthony96/AGN_model

Unveiling the distant Universe: Characterizing z≥9z\ge9 Galaxies in the first epoch of COSMOS-Web

We report the identification of 15 galaxy candidates at $z\ge9$ using the initial COSMOS-Web JWST observations over 77 arcmin$^2$ through four NIRCam filters (F115W, F150W, F277W, F444W) with an overlap with MIRI (F770W) of 8.7 arcmin$^2$. We fit the sample using several publicly-available SED fitting and photometric redshift codes and determine their redshifts between $z=9.3$ and $z=10.9$ ($\langle z\rangle=10.0$), UV-magnitudes between M$_{\rm UV}$ = $-$21.2 and $-$19.5 (with $\langle$M$_{\rm UV}\rangle=-20.2$) and rest-frame UV slopes ($\langle \beta\rangle=-2.4$). These galaxies are, on average, more luminous than most $z\ge9$ candidates discovered by JWST so far in the literature, while exhibiting similar blue colors in their rest-frame UV. The rest-frame UV slopes derived from SED-fitting are blue ($\beta\sim$[$-$2.0, $-$2.7]) without reaching extremely blue values as reported in other recent studies at these redshifts. The blue color is consistent with models that suggest the underlying stellar population is not yet fully enriched in metals like similarly luminous galaxies in the lower redshift Universe. The derived stellar masses with $\langle \log_{\rm 10} ($M$_\star/$M$_\odot)\rangle\approx8-9$ are not in tension with the standard $\Lambda$CDM model and our measurement of the volume density of such UV luminous galaxies aligns well with previously measured values presented in the literature at $z\sim9-10$. Our sample of galaxies, although compact, are significantly resolved.Comment: Submitted to Ap

Evidence for a Shallow Evolution in the Volume Densities of Massive Galaxies at z=4z=4 to 88 from CEERS

We analyze the evolution of massive (log$_{10}$ [$M_\star/M_\odot$] $>10$) galaxies at $z \sim$ 4--8 selected from the JWST Cosmic Evolution Early Release Science (CEERS) survey. We infer the physical properties of all galaxies in the CEERS NIRCam imaging through spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting with dense basis to select a sample of high redshift massive galaxies. Where available we include constraints from additional CEERS observing modes, including 18 sources with MIRI photometric coverage, and 28 sources with spectroscopic confirmations from NIRSpec or NIRCam wide-field slitless spectroscopy. We sample the recovered posteriors in stellar mass from SED fitting to infer the volume densities of massive galaxies across cosmic time, taking into consideration the potential for sample contamination by active galactic nuclei (AGN). We find that the evolving abundance of massive galaxies tracks expectations based on a constant baryon conversion efficiency in dark matter halos for $z \sim$ 1--4. At higher redshifts, we observe an excess abundance of massive galaxies relative to this simple model. These higher abundances can be explained by modest changes to star formation physics and/or the efficiencies with which star formation occurs in massive dark matter halos, and are not in tension with modern cosmology.Comment: 20 pages, 10 figure

CEERS Epoch 1 NIRCam Imaging: Reduction Methods and Simulations Enabling Early JWST Science Results

We present the data release and data reduction process for the Epoch 1 NIRCam observations for the Cosmic Evolution Early Release Science Survey (CEERS). These data consist of NIRCam imaging in six broadband filters (F115W, F150W, F200W, F277W, F356W and F444W) and one medium band filter (F410M) over four pointings, obtained in parallel with primary CEERS MIRI observations (Yang et al. in prep). We reduced the NIRCam imaging with the JWST Calibration Pipeline, with custom modifications and reduction steps designed to address additional features and challenges with the data. Here we provide a detailed description of each step in our reduction and a discussion of future expected improvements. Our reduction process includes corrections for known pre-launch issues such as 1/f noise, as well as in-flight issues including snowballs, wisps, and astrometric alignment. Many of our custom reduction processes were first developed with pre-launch simulated NIRCam imaging over the full 10 CEERS NIRCam pointings. We present a description of the creation and reduction of this simulated dataset in the Appendix. We provide mosaics of the real images in a public release, as well as our reduction scripts with detailed explanations to allow users to reproduce our final data products. These represent one of the first official public datasets released from the Directors Discretionary Early Release Science (DD-ERS) program.Comment: 27 pages, 14 figures, submitted to ApJ. Accompanying CEERS public Data Release 0.5 available at ceers.github.io/releases.htm

CEERS Key Paper VII: Emission Line Ratios from NIRSpec and NIRCam Wide-Field Slitless Spectroscopy at z>2

We use James Webb Space Telescope Near-Infrared Camera Wide Field Slitless Spectroscopy (NIRCam WFSS) and Near-Infrared spectrograph (NIRSpec) in the Cosmic Evolution Early Release survey (CEERS) to measure rest-frame optical emission-line of 155 galaxies at z>2. The blind NIRCam grism observations include a sample of galaxies with bright emission lines that were not observed on the NIRSpec masks. We study the changes of the Ha, [OIII]/Hb, and [NeIII]/[OII] emission lines in terms of redshift by comparing to lower redshift SDSS and CLEAR samples. We find a significant (>3$\sigma$) correlation between [OIII]/Hb with redshift, while [NeIII]/[OII] has a marginal (2$\sigma$) correlation with redshift. We compare [OIII]/Hb and [NeIII]/[OII] to stellar mass and Hb SFR. We find that both emission-line ratios have a correlation with Hb SFR and an anti-correlation with stellar mass across the redshifts 0<z<9. Comparison with MAPPINGS~V models indicates that these trends are consistent with lower metallicity and higher ionization in low-mass and high-SFR galaxies. We additionally compare to IllustriousTNG predictions and find that they effectively describe the highest [OIII]/Hb ratios observed in our sample, without the need to invoke MAPPINGS models with significant shock ionizionation components.Comment: 16 pages, 11 figure

CEERS Spectroscopic Confirmation of NIRCam-Selected z > 8 Galaxy Candidates with JWST/NIRSpec: Initial Characterization of their Properties

We present JWST NIRSpec spectroscopy for 11 galaxy candidates with photometric redshifts of $z\simeq9-13$ and $M_{\rm\,UV} \in[-21,-18]$ newly identified in NIRCam images in the Cosmic Evolution Early Release Science (CEERS) Survey. We confirm emission line redshifts for 7 galaxies at $z=7.762-8.998$ using spectra at $\sim1-5\mu$m either with the NIRSpec prism or its three medium resolution gratings. For $z\simeq9$ photometric candidates, we achieve a high confirmation rate of $\simeq$90\%, which validates the classical dropout selection from NIRCam photometry. No robust emission lines are identified in three galaxy candidates at $z>10$, where the strong [OIII] and H$\beta$ lines would be redshifted beyond the wavelength range observed by NIRSpec, and the Lyman-$\alpha$ continuum break is not detected with the current sensitivity. Compared with HST-selected bright galaxies ($M_{\rm\,UV}\simeq-22$) that are similarly spectroscopically confirmed at $z\gtrsim8$, these NIRCam-selected galaxies are characterized by lower star formation rates (SFR$\simeq4\,M_{\odot}$~yr$^{-1}$) and lower stellar masses ($\simeq10^{8}\,M_{\odot}$), but with higher [OIII]+H$\beta$ equivalent widths ($\simeq$1100$\r{A}$), and elevated production efficiency of ionizing photons ($\log(\xi_{\rm\,ion}/{\rm\,Hz\,erg}^{-1})\simeq25.8$) induced by young stellar populations ($<10$~Myrs) accounting for $\simeq20\%$ of the galaxy mass, highlighting the key contribution of faint galaxies to cosmic reionization. Taking advantage of the homogeneous selection and sensitivity, we also investigate metallicity and ISM conditions with empirical calibrations using the [OIII]/H$\beta$ ratio. We find that galaxies at $z\sim8-9$ have higher SFRs and lower metallicities than galaxies at similar stellar masses at $z\sim2-6$, which is generally consistent with the current galaxy formation and evolution models.Comment: 21 pages, 11 figures, 2 tables. Submitted to ApJL Focus Issu

Spectroscopic confirmation of CEERS NIRCam-selected galaxies at z≃8−10\boldsymbol{z \simeq 8-10}

We present JWST/NIRSpec prism spectroscopy of seven galaxies selected from the Cosmic Evolution Early Release Science Survey (CEERS) NIRCam imaging with photometric redshifts z_phot>8. We measure emission line redshifts of z=7.65 and 8.64 for two galaxies, and z=9.77(+0.37,-0.29) and 10.01(+0.14,-0.19) for two others via the detection of continuum breaks consistent with Lyman-alpha opacity from a mostly neutral intergalactic medium. The presence (absense) of strong breaks (strong emission lines) give high confidence that these two galaxies are at z>9.6, but the break-derived redshifts have large uncertainties given the low spectral resolution and relatively low signal-to-noise of the CEERS NIRSpec prism data. The two z~10 sources are relatively luminous (M_UV<-20), with blue continua (-2.3<beta<-1.9) and low dust attenuation (A_V=0.15(+0.3,-0.1)); and at least one of them has high stellar mass for a galaxy at that redshift (log(M_*/M_sol)=9.3(+0.2,-0.3)). Considered together with spectroscopic observations of other CEERS NIRCam-selected high-z galaxy candidates in the literature, we find a high rate of redshift confirmation and low rate of confirmed interlopers (8.3%). Ten out of 34 z>8 candidates with CEERS NIRSpec spectroscopy do not have secure redshifts, but the absence of emission lines in their spectra is consistent with redshifts z>9.6. We find that z>8 photometric redshifts are generally in agreement (within uncertainties) with the spectroscopic values. However, the photometric redshifts tend to be slightly overestimated (average Delta(z)=0.50+/-0.12), suggesting that current templates do not fully describe the spectra of very high-z sources. Overall, our results solidifies photometric evidence for a high space density of bright galaxies at z>8 compared to theoretical model predictions, and further disfavors an accelerated decline in the integrated UV luminosity density at z>8.Comment: Submitted to ApJL. 24 pages, 9 figures, 7 tables. File with Table 6 included in source .tar fil