Cyclical Expenditure Policy, Output Volatility, and Economic Growth

This paper provides a comprehensive empirical assessment of the relation between the cyclicality of fiscal expenditure policy, output volatility, and economic growth, using a large cross-section of 88 countries over the period 1960 to 2004. Identification of the effects of (endogenous) cyclical expenditure policy is achieved by exploiting the exogeneity of countries political and institutional characteristics, which we find to be relevant determinants of the cyclicality of expenditures. There are three main results: First, both pro- and countercyclical expenditure policy amplify output volatility, much in a way like pure fiscal shocks that are unrelated to the cycle. Second, output volatility, due to variations in cyclical and discretionary fiscal policy, is negatively associated with economic growth. Third, there is no direct effect of cyclicality on economic growth other than through output volatility. These findings advocate the introduction of fiscal rules that limit the use of (discretionary and) cyclical fiscal (expenditure) policy to improve growth performance by reducing volatility. (author's abstract

Cyclical Fiscal Policy, Output Volatility, and Economic Growth

This paper provides a comprehensive empirical assessment of the relation between the cyclicality of fiscal policy, output volatility, and economic growth, using a large cross-section of 88 countries over the period 1960 to 2004. Identification of the effects of (endogenous) cyclical fiscal policy is achieved by exploiting the exogeneity of countries’ political and institutional characteristics, which we find to be relevant determinants of fiscal cyclicality. There are three main results: First, both pro- and countercyclical fiscal policy amplify output volatility, much in a way like pure fiscal shocks that are unrelated to the cycle. Second, output volatility, due to variations in cyclical and discretionary fiscal policy, is negatively associated with economic growth. Third, there is no direct effect of cyclicality of economic growth other than through output volatility. These findings advocate the introduction of fiscal rules that limit the use of (discretionary and) cyclical fiscal policy to improve growth performance by reducing volatility.cyclical fiscal policy, output volatility, economic growth, institutions

National Representation in Multinational Institutions: The Case of the European Central Bank

Multinational institutions face an important trade-off when hiring personnel. On the one hand, hiring decisions are based, as in most organizations, on a candidate’s professional qualifications. On the other hand, multinational institutions often aim for broad national representation. Reviewing evidence from the European Central Bank, we show that nationality is indeed relevant for both hiring and decision-making. Specifically, we identify various country-specific features that determine national representation in the top management of the ECB. Further, there is evidence for the existence of national networks between adjacent management layers. Finally, monetary policy decisions seem to be linked to national representation in the core business areas of the ECB. Examining a sample of 14 European countries over the period from 1999 to 2008, we estimate Taylor rules for alternative sets of euro area aggregates derived from different weighting schemes of national macroeconomic data. Our results indicate that weights based on national representation in the mid-level management of the ECB's core business areas best describe the central bank's interest-rate setting behavior.organization, central bank, nationality, monetary policy

International Spillovers of Output Growth and Output Growth Volatility: Evidence from the G7

This paper examines the transmission of GDP growth and GDP growth volatility among the G7 countries over the period 1960 q1 - 2009 q3, using a multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (MGARCH) model to identify the source and magnitude of spillovers. Results indicate the presence of positive own-country GDP growth spillovers in each country and of cross-country GDP growth spillovers among most of the G7 countries. In addition, the large number of significant own-country output growth volatility and cross-country output growth volatility spillovers indicates that output growth shocks in most of the G7 countries affect output growth volatility in the remaining others. An additional finding is that U.S. is the dominant source of GDP growth volatility transmission, as its volatility exerts a significant unidirectional spillover to all remaining G7 countries.Business cycle transmission, Spillovers, Recession

GM Estimation of Higher Order Spatial Autoregressive Processes in Panel Data Error Component Models

This paper presents a generalized moments (GM) approach to estimating an R-th order spatial regressive process in a panel data error component model. We derive moment conditions to estimate the parameters of the higher order spatial regressive process and the optimal weighting matrix required to achieve asymptotic efficiency. We prove consistency of the proposed GM estimator and provide Monte Carlo evidence that it performs well also in reasonably small samples.spatial models, panel data models, error component models

Estimation of Higher-Order Spatial Autoregressive Panel Data Error Component Models

This paper develops an estimator for higher-order spatial autoregressive panel data error component models with spatial autoregressive disturbances, SARAR(R,S). We derive the moment conditions and optimal weighting matrix without distributional assumptions for a generalized moments (GM) estimation procedure of the spatial autoregressive parameters of the disturbance process and define a generalized two-stages least squares estimator for the regression parameters of the model. We prove consistency of the proposed estimators, derive their joint asymptotic distribution, and provide Monte Carlo evidence on their small sample performance.higher-order spatial dependence, generalized moments estimation, two-stages least squares, asymptotic statistics

Intra- and Inter-Industry Productivity Spillovers in OECD Manufacturing: A Spatial Econometric Perspective

We adopt a spatial econometric approach to estimate intra- and inter-industry productivity spillovers in total factor productivity transmitted through input-output relations in a sample of 13 OECD countries and 15 manufacturing industries. Both R&D spillovers as well as remainder, input-output-related linkage effects are accounted for, the latter of which we model by a spatial regressive error process. We find that knowledge spillovers occur both horizontally and vertically, whereas remainder spillovers are primarily of intra-industry type. Notably, these intra-industry remainder spillovers turn out economically more significant than R&D spillovers.intra-industry spillovers, inter-industry spillovers, productivity, spatial econometrics, research and development

Horizontal versus Vertical Interdependence in Multinational Activity

Recent research in international economics highlights the role of interdependencies of investment decisions and sales of multinational firms. Previous work focused on and provided evidence for aggregate flows or stocks of foreign direct investment, showing that interdependence declines in geographical distance among host countries. This could be interpreted as implicit evidence for export-platform foreign direct investment—an activity which creates a complementary relationship between (potential) host markets through final goods exports of foreign subsidiaries to third countries. This paper sheds light on interdependencies that are brought about by (horizontal) trade in final goods and (vertical) trade in intermediate goods (within and between host countries). For this, we use a panel data set of U.S. foreign affiliate sales to 16 developed countries in 7 industries over the period 1983-2000. As one of the first studies on that matter, we explicitly distinguish between horizontal and vertical interdependence in MNE activity and allow for both market size (demand) related as well as remainder linkage effects. The latter are captured by a second order spatial regressive error process. Overall, there is evidence for mainly vertical as opposed to horizontal interdependence and, hence, mainly vertical motives of multinational activity.multinational firms, foreign affiliate sales, spatial econometrics, generalized method of moments estimation, panel data analysis

European Integration and the Future Institutions of Europe

This article summarizes a talk, given at the conference From Bretton Woods to Berlaymont: Globalisation, Integration and the Future of Europe, organized by KOF Swiss Economic Institute and ETH Zurich from 22-23 March 2018. It highlights the complexity and multidimensional nature of the question about the future development of the European Union. It argues that there is a need for rebalancing subsidiarity and supranationality, but that the assignment of tasks and the "optimal" degree of centralization has to be judged on a case-by-case basis, differentiated by policy area. Moreover, it emphasizes the need to draw a line between what is desirable from a scientific perspective and can be judged by objective standards and what is desirable from a political perspective, which will vary a lot with political preferences. Finally, it argues that, at least in the short-to medium-run, economic integration should be given priority over political Integration.Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Serie

Measuring the world economy

This paper provides an empirical assessment of whether the world economy has become smaller in terms of economic distance over the last decades. We adopt a cross-sectional spatial econometric approach, relating domestic output volatility to (distance-weighted averages of) other countries' output volatility, using a sample of 135 countries and rolling 10-year time windows over the period 1955 to 2006. Using descriptive measures, test statistics, and spatial econometric estimates, we find that cross-country interdependence was virtually insignificant in the early post-war period but has increased strongly from the mid-1960s to the mid-1980s and remained at a high level since then. Results for the most recent period suggest that common shocks to output volatility have a magnified impact and roughly quadruplicate through international spillover effects, which are transmitted through both trade and financial openness