Inadequate intention to receive Covid-19 vaccination: indicators for public health messaging needed to improve uptake in UK

Data promising effective Covid-19 vaccines have accelerated the UK’s mass vaccination programme. The UK public’s attitudes to the government’s prioritisation list are unknown, and achieving critical population immunity will require the remaining majority to accept both vaccination and the delay in access of up to a year or more. This cross-sectional observational study sent an online questionnaire to registrants of the UK National Health Service’s largest personal health record. Question items covered willingness for Covid-19 vaccine uptake and attitudes to prioritisation. Among 9,122 responses, 71.5% indicated wanting a vaccine, below what previous modelling indicated as critical levels for progressing towards herd immunity. 22.7% disagreed with the prioritisation list, though 70.3% were against being able to expedite vaccination through payment. Age and female gender were, respectively, strongly positively and negatively associated with wanting a vaccine. Teachers and Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic (BAME) groups were most cited by respondents for prioritisation. This study identifies factors to inform the public health messaging critical to improving uptake

Increasing but inadequate intention to receive Covid-19 vaccination over the first 50 days of impact of the more infectious variant and roll-out of vaccination in UK: indicators for public health messaging

Objectives To inform critical public health messaging by determining how changes in Covid-19 vaccine hesitancy, attitudes to the priorities for administration, the emergence of new variants and availability of vaccines may affect the trajectory and achievement of herd immunity. Methods >9,000 respondents in an ongoing cross-sectional participatory longitudinal epidemiology study (LoC-19, n=18,581) completed a questionnaire within their personal electronic health record in the week reporting first effective Covid-19 vaccines, and then again after widespread publicity of the increased transmissibility of a new variant (November 13th and December 31st 2020 respectively). Questions covered willingness to receive Covid-19 vaccination and attitudes to prioritisation. Descriptive statistics, unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and natural language processing of free-text responses are reported, and how changes over the first 50 days of both vaccination roll-out and new-variant impact modelling of anticipated transmission rates and the likelihood and time to herd immunity. Findings Compared with the week reporting the first efficacious vaccine there was a 15% increase in acceptance of Covid-19 vaccination, attributable in one third to the impact of the new variant, with 75% of respondents “shielding” – staying at home and not leaving unless essential – regardless of health status or tier rules. 12.5% of respondents plan to change their behaviour two weeks after completing vaccination compared with 45% intending to do so only when cases have reduced to a low level. Despite the increase from 71% to 86% over this critical 50-day period, modelling of planned uptake of vaccination remains below that required for rapid effective herd immunity – now estimated to be 90 percent in the presence of a new variant escalating R0 to levels requiring further lockdowns. To inform the public messaging essential therefore to improve uptake, age and female gender were, respectively, strongly positively and negatively associated with wanting a vaccine. 22.7% disagreed with the prioritisation list, though 70.3% were against being able to expedite vaccination through payment. Teachers (988, 12.6%) and Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic (BAME) (837, 10.7%) groups were most cited by respondents for prioritisation. Interpretation In this sample, the growing impact of personal choice among the increasingly informed public highlights a decrease in Covid-19 vaccine hesitancy over time, with news of a new variant motivating increased willingness for vaccination but at levels below what may be required for effective herd immunity. We identify public preferences for next-in-line priorities, headed by teachers and BAME groups, consideration of which will help build trust and community engagement critical for maximising compliance with not only the vaccination programme but also all other public health measures

The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on uptake of influenza vaccine: a UK-wide observational study.

BACKGROUND: In the face of the Covid-19 pandemic, the UK National Health Service (NHS) flu vaccination eligibility is extended this season to ~32.4 million (48.8%) of the population. Knowing intended uptake will inform supply and public health messaging to maximise vaccination. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to measure the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on acceptance of flu vaccination in the 2020-21 season, specifically focusing on those previously eligible who routinely decline vaccination and the newly eligible. METHODS: Intention to receive influenza vaccine in 2020-21 was asked of all registrants of the NHS's largest electronic personal health record by online questionnaire on 31st July 2020. Of those who were either newly or previously eligible but had not previously received influenza vaccination, multivariable logistic regression and network diagrams were used to examine reasons to have or decline vaccination. RESULTS: Among 6,641 respondents, 945 (14.2%) were previously eligible but not vaccinated, of whom 536 (56.7%) intended to receive flu vaccination in 2020/21, as did 466 (68.6%) of the newly eligible. Intention to receive the flu vaccine was associated with increased age, index of multiple deprivation (IMD) quintile, and considering oneself at high risk from Covid-19. Among those eligible but intending not to be vaccinated in 2020/21, 164 (30.2%) gave misinformed reasons. 47 (49.9%) of previously unvaccinated healthcare workers would decline vaccination in 2020/21. CONCLUSIONS: In this sample, Covid-19 has increased acceptance of flu vaccination in those previously eligible but unvaccinated and motivates substantial uptake in the newly eligible. This study is essential for informing resource planning and the need for effective messaging campaigns to address negative misconceptions, also necessary for Covid-19 vaccination programmes. CLINICALTRIAL: Not applicable

Wearable in-ear PPG: detailed respiratory variations enable classification of COPD

An ability to extract detailed spirometry-like breath-ing waveforms from wearable sensors promises to greatly improve respiratory health monitoring. Photoplethysmography (PPG) has been researched in depth for estimation of respiration rate, given that it varies with respiration through overall intensity, pulse amplitude and pulse interval. We compare and contrast the extraction of these three respiratory modes from both the ear canal and finger and show a marked improvement in the respiratory power for respiration induced intensity variations and pulse amplitude variations when recording from the ear canal. We next employ a data driven multi-scale method, noise assisted multivariate empirical mode decomposition (NA-MEMD), which allows for simultaneous analysis of all three respiratory modes to extract detailed respiratory waveforms from in-ear PPG. For rigour, we considered in-ear PPG recordings from healthy subjects, both older and young, patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and healthy subjects with artificially obstructed breathing. Specific in-ear PPG waveform changes are observed for COPD, such as a decreased inspiratory duty cycle and an increased inspiratory magnitude, when compared with expiratory magnitude. These differences are used to classify COPD from healthy and IPF waveforms with a sensitivity of 87% and an overall accuracy of 92%. Our findings indicate the promise of in-ear PPG for COPD screening and unobtrusive respiratory monitoring in ambulatory scenarios and in consumer wearables

Survival and health economic outcomes in heart failure diagnosed at hospital admission versus community settings: a propensity-matched analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Most patients with heart failure (HF) are diagnosed following a hospital admission. The clinical and health economic impacts of index HF diagnosis made on admission to hospital versus community settings are not known. METHODS: We used the North West London Discover database to examine 34 208 patients receiving an index diagnosis of HF between January 2015 and December 2020. A propensity score-matched (PSM) cohort was identified to adjust for differences in socioeconomic status, cardiovascular risk and pre-diagnosis health resource utilisation cost. Outcomes were stratified by two pathways to index HF diagnosis: a 'hospital pathway' was defined by diagnosis following hospital admission; and a 'community pathway' by diagnosis via a general practitioner or outpatient services. The primary clinical and health economic endpoints were all-cause mortality and cost-consequence differential, respectively. RESULTS: The diagnosis of HF was via hospital pathway in 68% (23 273) of patients. The PSM cohort included 17 174 patients (8582 per group) and was matched across all selected confounders (p>0.05). The ratio of deaths per person-months at 24 months comparing community versus hospital diagnosis was 0.780 (95% CI 0.722 to 0.841, p<0.0001). By 72 months, the ratio of deaths was 0.960 (0.905 to 1.020, p=0.18). Diagnosis via hospital pathway incurred an overall extra longitudinal cost of £2485 per patient. CONCLUSIONS: Index diagnosis of HF through hospital admission continues to dominate and is associated with a significantly greater short-term risk of mortality and substantially increased long-term costs than if first diagnosed in the community. This study highlights the potential for community diagnosis-early, before symptoms necessitate hospitalisation-to improve both clinical and health economic outcomes

Smartphone-based remote monitoring in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction: retrospective cohort study of secondary care use and costs

BACKGROUND: Despite effective therapies, the economic burden of heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) is driven by frequent hospitalizations. Treatment optimization and admission avoidance rely on frequent symptom reviews and monitoring of vital signs. Remote monitoring (RM) aims to prevent admissions by facilitating early intervention, but the impact of noninvasive, smartphone-based RM of vital signs on secondary health care use and costs in the months after a new diagnosis of HFrEF is unknown. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study is to conduct a secondary care health use and health-economic evaluation for patients with HFrEF using smartphone-based noninvasive RM and compare it with matched controls receiving usual care without RM. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study of 2 cohorts of newly diagnosed HFrEF patients, matched 1:1 for demographics, socioeconomic status, comorbidities, and HFrEF severity. They are (1) the RM group, with patients using the RM platform for >3 months and (2) the control group, with patients referred before RM was available who received usual heart failure care without RM. Emergency department (ED) attendance, hospital admissions, outpatient use, and the associated costs of this secondary care activity were extracted from the Discover data set for a 3-month period after diagnosis. Platform costs were added for the RM group. Secondary health care use and costs were analyzed using Kaplan-Meier event analysis and Cox proportional hazards modeling. RESULTS: A total of 146 patients (mean age 63 years; 42/146, 29% female) were included (73 in each group). The groups were well-matched for all baseline characteristics except hypertension (P=.03). RM was associated with a lower hazard of ED attendance (hazard ratio [HR] 0.43; P=.02) and unplanned admissions (HR 0.26; P=.02). There were no differences in elective admissions (HR 1.03, P=.96) or outpatient use (HR 1.40; P=.18) between the 2 groups. These differences were sustained by a univariate model controlling for hypertension. Over a 3-month period, secondary health care costs were approximately 4-fold lower in the RM group than the control group, despite the additional cost of RM itself (mean cost per patient GBP £465, US $581 vs GBP £1850, US$2313, respectively; P=.04). CONCLUSIONS: This retrospective cohort study shows that smartphone-based RM of vital signs is feasible for HFrEF. This type of RM was associated with an approximately 2-fold reduction in ED attendance and a 4-fold reduction in emergency admissions over just 3 months after a new diagnosis with HFrEF. Costs were significantly lower in the RM group without increasing outpatient demand. This type of RM could be adjunctive to standard care to reduce admissions, enabling other resources to help patients unable to use RM

Smartphone-based remote monitoring in chronic heart failure: patient & clinician user experience, impact on patient engagement and quality of life

Background Heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) lowers patients' quality of life (QoL) [1]. Digital interventions such as ESC's “Heart Failure Matters” website aim to encourage patient-engagement & self-management [2], which remain major challenges in HFrEF care. Although remote monitoring (RM) has been tested in HFrEF with inconclusive impact on prognosis [3], its impact on patients' experience and engagement is unclear [4]. Furthermore, the perspective of clinicians using RM technologies remains unknown. We present users' experience of Luscii, a novel smartphone-based RM platform enabling HFrEF patients to submit clinical measurements, symptoms, complete educational modules, & communicate with HF specialist nurses (HFSNs). Purpose (I) To evaluate the usage-type & user experience of patients and HFSNs. (II) To assess the impact of using the RM platform on self-reported QoL Methods A two-part retrospective analysis of HFrEF patients from our regional service using the RM platform: Part A: Thematic analysis of patient feedback provided via the platform and a focus group of six HFSNs. Part B: Scores for a locally-devised HF questionnaire (HFQ), depression (PHQ-9) & anxiety (GAD-7) questionnaires were extracted from the RM platform at two timepoints: at on-boarding and 3 months after. Paired non-parametric tests were used to evaluate difference between median scores across the two time points. Results 83 patients (mean age 62 years; 27% female) used the RM platform between April and November 2021. 2 dropped out & 2 died before 3 months. Part A: Patients and HFSNs exchanged information on many topics via the platform, including patient educational modules (Figure 1). Thematic analysis revealed positive and negative impacts with many overlapping subthemes between the two user groups (Figure 2). Part B: At 3 months there was no difference in HFQ score (19 vs. 18, p=0.57, maximum possible score = 50). PHQ-9 (3 vs. 3, p=0.48, maximum possible score = 27) and GAD-7 (5 vs. 3, p=0.54. maximum possible score = 21) scores were low at onboarding and follow-up. Conclusions This evaluation shows smartphone-based RM is feasible in HFrEF with good retention (2% drop-out rate over 3 months, albeit in a cohort with low baseline depression and anxiety levels). The platform serves as an integrated solution for symptom reporting, patient-clinician communication & education. Positive impacts include patient engagement, convenience, admission avoidance & medication optimisation, but there was no corresponding change in QoL scores in the short-term. We find potential pitfalls: information overload for patients & increased workload for clinicians. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: Other. Main funding source(s): Sameer Zaman is supported by UK Research and Innovation [UKRI Centre for Doctoral Training in AI for Healthcare grant number EP/S023283/1]

Cell death markers in cirrhotic patients with acute decompensation

The aims of this study were to determine the role of cell death in cirrhotic patients with acute decompensation (AD) and acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF) using plasma-based biomarkers. The patients studied were part of the CANONIC study (N=337; AD: 258; ACLF: 79); additional cohorts included healthy volunteers, stable cirrhotic patients and a group of 16 AD patients for histological studies. Caspase-cleaved keratin 18 (cK18) and keratin 18 (K18), which reflect apoptotic and total cell death respectively and cK18:K18 ratio (apoptotic index) were measured in the plasma by ELISA. The concentrations of cK18 and K18 increased and the cK18:K18 ratio decreased with increasing severity of AD and ACLF (p<0.001 respectively). Alcohol etiology, no previous decompensation and alcohol abuse were associated with increased cell death markers whereas underlying infection was not. Close correlation was observed between the cell death markers and, markers of systemic inflammation, hepatic failure, alanine amino transferase and bilirubin but not with markers of extra hepatic organ injury. TUNEL staining confirmed evidence of greater hepatic cell death in patients with ACLF as opposed to AD. Inclusion of cK18 and K18 improved the performance of the CLIF-C AD score in prediction of progression from AD to ACLF (p<0.05). CONCLUSION: Cell death, likely hepatic, is an important feature of AD and ACLF and its magnitude correlates with clinical severity. Non-apoptotic forms of cell death predominate with increasing severity of AD and ACLF. The data suggests that ACLF is a heterogeneous entity and shows that the importance of cell death in its pathophysiology is dependent on predisposing factors, precipitating illness, response to injury and the type of organ failure. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

Belief of having had unconfirmed Covid-19 infection reduces willingness to participate in app-based contact tracing

Abstract Contact tracing and lockdown are health policies being used worldwide to combat the coronavirus (COVID-19). The UK National Health Service (NHS) Track and Trace Service has plans for a nationwide app that notifies the need for self-isolation to those in contact with a person testing positive for COVID-19. To be successful, such an app will require high uptake, the determinants and willingness for which are unclear but essential to understand for effective public health benefit. The objective of this study was to measure the determinants of willingness to participate in an NHS app-based contact-tracing programme using a questionnaire within the Care Information Exchange (CIE)—the largest patient-facing electronic health record in the NHS. Among 47,708 registered NHS users of the CIE, 27% completed a questionnaire asking about willingness to participate in app-based contact tracing, understanding of government advice, mental and physical wellbeing and their healthcare utilisation—related or not to COVID-19. Descriptive statistics are reported alongside univariate and multivariable logistic regression models, with positive or negative responses to a question on app-based contact tracing as the dependent variable. 26.1% of all CIE participants were included in the analysis (N = 12,434, 43.0% male, mean age 55.2). 60.3% of respondents were willing to participate in app-based contact tracing. Out of those who responded ‘no’, 67.2% stated that this was due to privacy concerns. In univariate analysis, worsening mood, fear and anxiety in relation to changes in government rules around lockdown were associated with lower willingness to participate. Multivariable analysis showed that difficulty understanding government rules was associated with a decreased inclination to download the app, with those scoring 1–2 and 3–4 in their understanding of the new government rules being 45% and 27% less inclined to download the contact-tracing app, respectively; when compared to those who rated their understanding as 5–6/10 (OR for 1–2/10 = 0.57 [CI 0.48–0.67]; OR for 3–4/10 = 0.744 [CI 0.64–0.87]), whereas scores of 7–8 and 9–10 showed a 43% and 31% respective increase. Those reporting an unconfirmed belief of having previously had and recovered from COVID-19 were 27% less likely to be willing to download the app; belief of previous recovery from COVID-19 infection OR 0.727 [0.585–0.908]). In this large UK-wide questionnaire of wellbeing in lockdown, a willingness for app-based contact tracing over an appropriate age range is 60%—close to the estimated 56% population uptake, and substantially less than the smartphone-user uptake considered necessary for an app-based contact tracing to be an effective intervention to help suppress an epidemic. Difficulty comprehending government advice and uncertainty of diagnosis, based on a public health policy of not testing to confirm self-reported COVID-19 infection during lockdown, therefore reduce willingness to adopt a government contact-tracing app to a level below the threshold for effectiveness as a tool to suppress an epidemic.</jats:p