Estimated prevalence of undiagnosed HCV infected individuals in Italy: A mathematical model by route of transmission and fibrosis progression

Background: The universal treatment of diagnosed patients with chronic HCV infection has been widely conducted in Italy since 2017. However, the pool of individuals diagnosed but yet to be treated in Italy has been estimated to end around 2025, leaving a significant proportion of infected individuals undiagnosed/without care. Estimates of this population are currently unknown. Methods: A probabilistic modelling approach was applied to estimate annual historical HCV incident cases by their age-group (0–100 years) distribution from available literature and Italian National database (1952 to October 2019). Viraemic infection rates were modelled on the main infection routes in Italy: people who inject drugs (PWID), tattoos, sexual transmission, glass syringe use, blood transfusion and vertical transmission. Annual liver fibrosis stage transition probabilities were modelled using a Markov model. The number of HCV viraemic asymptomatic (fibrosis stage F0-F3:potentially undiagnosed/unlinked to care) and symptomatic (fibrosis stage F4: potentially linked to care) individuals was estimated. Results: By October 2019, total viraemic HCV individuals in Italy (excluding treated patients since 1992) were estimated to be 410,775 (0.68 % of current population of Italy; 95 % CI: 0.64−0.71%, based on the current Italian population), of which 281,809 (0.47 %; 95 % CI:0.35−0.60%) were fibrosis stage F0-F3. Among different high risk groups in stage F0-F3, the following distribution was estimated: PWID; 52.0 % (95 % CI:37.9–66.6 %), tattoo; 28.8 % (95 % CI:23–32.3 %), sexual transmission; 12.0 % (95 % CI:9.6–13.7 %), glass syringe and transfusion; 6.4 % (95 % CI:2.4–17.8 %), and vertical transmission; 0.7 % (95 % CI:0.4–1.2 %). Conclusion: Under the assumption that most untreated HCV-infected individuals with stage F0-F3 are undiagnosed, more than 280,000 individuals are undiagnosed and/or unlinked to care in Italy. Marked heterogeneity across the major routes of HCV transmission was estimated. This modelling approach may be a useful tool to characterise the HCV epidemic profile also in other countries, based on country specific epidemiology and HCV main transmission routes

A mathematical model by route of transmission and fibrosis progression to estimate undiagnosed individuals with HCV in different Italian regions

Background: Although an increase in hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence from Northern to Southern Italy has been reported, the burden of asymptomatic individuals in different Italian regions is currently unknown. Methods: A probabilistic approach, including a Markov chain for liver disease progression, was applied to estimate current HCV viraemic burden. The model defined prevalence by geographic area using an estimated annual historical HCV incidence by age, treatment rate, and migration rate from the Italian National database. Viraemic infection by age group was estimated for each region by main HCV transmission routes of individuals for stage F0–F3 (i.e. patients without liver cirrhosis and thus potentially asymptomatic) and F4 (patients with liver cirrhosis, thus potentially symptomatic). Results: By January 2020, it was estimated that there were 409,184 Italian individuals with HCV (prevalence of 0.68%; 95% CI: 0.54–0.82%), of which 300,171 (0.50%; 95% CI: 0.4–0.6%) were stage F0–F3. Considering all individuals with HCV in stage F0–F3, the geographical distributions (expressed as the proportion of HCV infected individuals by macroarea within the overall estimated number of F0–F3 individuals and prevalence values, expressed as the percentage of individuals with HCV versus the overall number of individuals for each macroarea) were as follows: North 42.1% (0.45%; 95% CI: 0.36–0.55%), Central 24.1% (0.61%; 95% CI: 0.48–0.74%), South 23.2% (0.50%; 95% CI: 0.4–0.61%), and the Isles 10.6% (0.49%; 95% CI: 0.39–0.59%). The population of people who inject drugs accounted for 50.4% of all individuals infected (F0–F3). Undiagnosed individuals (F0–F3) were ~ 15 years younger (⁓ 50 years) compared with patients with stage F4 (⁓ 65 years), with similar age distributions across macroareas. In contrast to what has been reported on HCV epidemiology in Italy, an increasing trend in the proportion of potentially undiagnosed individuals with HCV (absolute number within the F0–F3) from South (23.2%) to North (42.1%) emerged, independent of similar regional prevalence values. Conclusion: This targeted approach, which addresses the specific profile of undiagnosed individuals, is helpful in planning effective elimination strategies by region in Italy and could be a useful methodology for other countries in implementing their elimination plans

Monitoring COVID-19 Transmission Risks by Quantitative RealTime PCR Tracing of Droplets in Hospital and Living Environments

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) environmental contamination occurs through droplets and biological fluids released in the surroundings from patients or asymptomatic carriers. Surfaces and objects contaminated by saliva or nose secretions represent a risk for indirect transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We assayed surfaces from hospital and living spaces to identify the presence of viral RNA and the spread of fomites in the environment. Anthropic contamination by droplets and biological fluids was monitored by detecting the microbiota signature using multiplex quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) on selected species and massive sequencing on 16S amplicons. A total of 92 samples (flocked swabs) were collected from critical areas during the pandemic, including indoor (three hospitals and three public buildings) and outdoor surfaces exposed to anthropic contamination (handles and handrails, playgrounds). Traces of biological fluids were frequently detected in spaces open to the public and on objects that are touched with the hands (.80%). However, viral RNA was not detected in hospital wards or other indoor and outdoor surfaces either in the air system of a COVID hospital but only in the surroundings of an infected patient, in consistent association with droplet traces and fomites. Handled objects accumulated the highest level of multiple contaminations by saliva, nose secretions, and fecal traces, further supporting the priority role of handwashing in prevention. In conclusion, anthropic contamination by droplets and biological fluids is widespread in spaces open to the public and can be traced by qPCR. Monitoring fomites can support evaluation of indirect transmission risks for coronavirus or other flu-like viruses in the environment

Olfactory and gustatory function impairment in COVID-19 patients : Italian objective multicenter-study

Background: Objective data on chemosensitive disorders during COVID-19 are lacking in the Literature. Methods: Multicenter cohort study that involved four Italian hospitals. Three hundred and forty-five COVID-19 patients underwent objective chemosensitive evaluation. Results: Chemosensitive disorders self-reported by 256 patients (74.2%) but the 30.1% of the 89 patients who did not report dysfunctions proved objectively hyposmic. Twenty-five percentage of patients were seen serious long-lasting complaints. All asymptomatic patients had a slight lowering of the olfactory threshold. No significant correlations were found between the presence and severity of chemosensitive disorders and the severity of the clinical course. On the contrary, there is a significant correlation between the duration of the olfactory and gustatory symptoms and the development of severe COVID-19. Conclusions: Patients under-report the frequency of chemosensitive disorders. Contrary to recent reports, such objective testing refutes the proposal that the presence of olfactory and gustatory dysfunction may predict a milder course, but instead suggests that those with more severe disease neglect such symptoms in the setting of severe respiratory disease

Application and Validation of PFGE for Serovar Identification of Leptospira Clinical Isolates

Serovar identification of clinical isolates of Leptospira is generally not performed on a routine basis, yet the identity of an infecting serovar is valuable from both epidemiologic and public health standpoints. Only a small number of reference laboratories worldwide have the capability to perform the cross agglutinin absorption test (CAAT), the reference method for serovar identification. Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) is an alternative method to CAAT that facilitates rapid identification of leptospires to the serovar level. We employed PFGE to evaluate 175 isolates obtained from humans and animals submitted to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) between 1993 and 2007. PFGE patterns for each isolate were generated using the NotI restriction enzyme and compared to a reference database consisting of more than 200 reference strains. Of the 175 clinical isolates evaluated, 136 (78%) were identified to the serovar level by the database, and an additional 27 isolates (15%) have been identified as probable new serovars. The remaining isolates yet to be identified are either not represented in the database or require further study to determine whether or not they also represent new serovars. PFGE proved to be a useful tool for serovar identification of clinical isolates of known serovars from different geographic regions and a variety of different hosts and for recognizing potential new serovars

Prevalence and Correlates of Hepatitis C Infection among Male Injection Drug Users in Detention, Tehran, Iran

For the benefit of planning for the future care and treatment of people infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) and to help guide prevention and control programs, data are needed on HCV seroprevalence and associated risk factors. We conducted a cross-sectional sero-behavioral survey of injection drug users (IDU) detained for mandatory rehabilitation during a police sweep of Tehran, Iran, in early 2006. During the study period, a consecutive sample comprising 454 of 499 (91.0%) men arrested and determined to be IDU by urine test and physical examination consented to a face-to-face interview and blood collection for HCV antibody testing. Overall, HCV prevalence was 80.0% (95% confidence interval (CI) 76.2–83.6). Factors independently associated with HCV infection included history of incarceration (adjusted OR 4.35, 95% CI 1.88–10.08), age of first injection ≤25 years (OR 2.72, 95% CI 1.09–6.82), and history of tattooing (OR 2.33, 95% CI 1.05–5.17). HCV prevalence in this population of IDU upon intake to jail was extremely high and possibly approaching saturation. Findings support that incarceration is contributing to the increased spread of HCV infection in Iran and calls for urgent increased availability of HCV treatment, long-term preparation for the care of complications of chronic infection, and rapid scale-up of programs for the primary prevention of parenterally transmitted infections among drug users