Prognostic model to predict postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery based on a national prospective observational cohort study.

Background: Acute illness, existing co-morbidities and surgical stress response can all contribute to postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was prospectively to develop a pragmatic prognostic model to stratify patients according to risk of developing AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: This prospective multicentre cohort study included consecutive adults undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection, liver resection or stoma reversal in 2-week blocks over a continuous 3-month period. The primary outcome was the rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery. Bootstrap stability was used to select clinically plausible risk factors into the model. Internal model validation was carried out by bootstrap validation. Results: A total of 4544 patients were included across 173 centres in the UK and Ireland. The overall rate of AKI was 14·2 per cent (646 of 4544) and the 30-day mortality rate was 1·8 per cent (84 of 4544). Stage 1 AKI was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (unadjusted odds ratio 7·61, 95 per cent c.i. 4·49 to 12·90; P < 0·001), with increasing odds of death with each AKI stage. Six variables were selected for inclusion in the prognostic model: age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker. Internal validation demonstrated good model discrimination (c-statistic 0·65). Discussion: Following major gastrointestinal surgery, AKI occurred in one in seven patients. This preoperative prognostic model identified patients at high risk of postoperative AKI. Validation in an independent data set is required to ensure generalizability

A modified NSGA-II solution for a new multi-objective hub maximal covering problem under uncertain shipments

Hubs are centers for collection, rearrangement,and redistribution of commodities in transportation networks. In this paper, non-linear multi-objective formulations for single and multiple allocation hub maximal covering problems as well as the linearized versions are proposed. The formulations substantially mitigate complexity of the existing models due to the fewer number of constraints and variables. Also, uncertain shipments are studied in the context of hub maximal covering problems. In many real-world applications, any link on the path from origin to destination may fail to work due to disruption. Therefore, in the proposed bi-objective model, maximizing safety of the weakest path in the network is considered as the second objective together with the traditional maximum coverage goal. Furthermore, to solve the bi-objective model, a modified version of NSGA-II with a new dynamic immigration operator is developed in which the accurate number of immigrants depends on the results of the other two common NSGA-II operators, i.e. mutation and crossover. Besides validating proposed models, computational results confirm a better performance of modified NSGA-II versus traditional one

Epidemiology and seasonality of respiratory viral infections in hospitalized children in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia: a retrospective study of 27 years

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Viral respiratory tract infections (RTI) are relatively understudied in Southeast Asian tropical countries. In temperate countries, seasonal activity of respiratory viruses has been reported, particularly in association with temperature, while inconsistent correlation of respiratory viral activity with humidity and rain is found in tropical countries. A retrospective study was performed from 1982-2008 to investigate the viral etiology of children (≤ 5 years old) admitted with RTI in a tertiary hospital in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A total of 10269 respiratory samples from all children ≤ 5 years old received at the hospital's diagnostic virology laboratory between 1982-2008 were included in the study. Immunofluorescence staining (for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), influenza A and B, parainfluenza types 1-3, and adenovirus) and virus isolation were performed. The yearly hospitalization rates and annual patterns of laboratory-confirmed viral RTIs were determined. Univariate ANOVA was used to analyse the demographic parameters of cases. Multiple regression and Spearman's rank correlation were used to analyse the correlation between RSV cases and meteorological parameters.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 2708 cases were laboratory-confirmed using immunofluorescence assays and viral cultures, with the most commonly detected being RSV (1913, 70.6%), parainfluenza viruses (357, 13.2%), influenza viruses (297, 11.0%), and adenovirus (141, 5.2%). Children infected with RSV were significantly younger, and children infected with influenza viruses were significantly older. The four main viruses caused disease throughout the year, with a seasonal peak observed for RSV in September-December. Monthly RSV cases were directly correlated with rain days, and inversely correlated with relative humidity and temperature.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Viral RTIs, particularly due to RSV, are commonly detected in respiratory samples from hospitalized children in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. As in temperate countries, RSV infection in tropical Malaysia also caused seasonal yearly epidemics, and this has implications for prophylaxis and vaccination programmes.</p

SDOCT Imaging to Identify Macular Pathology in Patients Diagnosed with Diabetic Maculopathy by a Digital Photographic Retinal Screening Programme

INTRODUCTION: Diabetic macular edema (DME) is an important cause of vision loss. England has a national systematic photographic retinal screening programme to identify patients with diabetic eye disease. Grading retinal photographs according to this national protocol identifies surrogate markers for DME. We audited a care pathway using a spectral-domain optical coherence tomography (SDOCT) clinic to identify macular pathology in this subset of patients. METHODS: A prospective audit was performed of patients referred from screening with mild to moderate non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy (R1) and surrogate markers for diabetic macular edema (M1) attending an SDOCT clinic. The SDOCT images were graded by an ophthalmologist as SDOCT positive, borderline or negative. SDOCT positive patients were referred to the medical retina clinic. SDOCT negative and borderline patients were further reviewed in the SDOCT clinic in 6 months. RESULTS: From a registered screening population of 17 551 patients with diabetes mellitus, 311 patients met the inclusion criteria between (March 2008 and September 2009). We analyzed images from 311 patients' SDOCT clinic episodes. There were 131 SDOCT negative and 12 borderline patients booked for revisit in the OCT clinic. Twenty-four were referred back to photographic screening for a variety of reasons. A total of 144 were referred to ophthalmology with OCT evidence of definite macular pathology requiring review by an ophthalmologist. DISCUSSION: This analysis shows that patients with diabetes, mild to moderate non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy (R1) and evidence of diabetic maculopathy on non-stereoscopic retinal photographs (M1) have a 42.1% chance of having no macular edema on SDOCT imaging as defined by standard OCT definitions of DME when graded by a retinal specialist. SDOCT imaging is a useful adjunct to colour fundus photography in screening for referable diabetic maculopathy in our screening population

LUMOS - Low and Intermediate Grade Glioma Umbrella Study of Molecular Guided TherapieS at relapse: Protocol for a pilot study

IntroductionGrades 2 and 3 gliomas (G2/3 gliomas), when combined, are the second largest group of malignant brain tumours in adults. The outcomes for G2/3 gliomas at progression approach the dismal outcomes for glioblastoma (GBM), yet there is a paucity of trials for Australian patients with relapsed G2/3 gliomas compared with patients with GBM. LUMOS will be a pilot umbrella study for patients with relapsed G2/3 gliomas that aims to match patients to targeted therapies based on molecular screening with contemporaneous tumour tissue. Participants in whom no actionable or no druggable mutation is found, or in whom the matching drug is not available, will form a comparator arm and receive standard of care chemotherapy. The objective of the LUMOS trial is to assess the feasibility of this approach in a multicentre study across five sites in Australia, with a view to establishing a national molecular screening platform for patient treatment guided by the mutational analysis of contemporaneous tissue biopsiesMethods and analysisThis study will be a multicentre pilot study enrolling patients with recurrent grade 2/3 gliomas that have previously been treated with radiotherapy and chemotherapy at diagnosis or at first relapse. Contemporaneous tumour tissue at the time of first relapse, defined as tissue obtained within 6 months of relapse and without subsequent intervening therapy, will be obtained from patients. Molecular screening will be performed by targeted next-generation sequencing at the reference laboratory (PathWest, Perth, Australia). RNA and DNA will be extracted from representative formalin-fixed paraffin embedded tissue scrolls or microdissected from sections on glass slides tissue sections following a review of the histology by pathologists. Extracted nucleic acid will be quantified by Qubit Fluorometric Quantitation (Thermo Fisher Scientific). Library preparation and targeted capture will be performed using the TruSight Tumor 170 (TST170) kit and samples sequenced on NextSeq 550 (Illumina) using NextSeq V.2.5 hi output reagents, according to the manufacturer’s instructions. Data analysis will be performed using the Illumina BaseSpace TST170 app v1.02 and a custom tertiary pipeline, implemented within the Clinical Genomics Workspace software platform from PierianDx (also refer to section 3.2). Primary outcomes for the study will be the number of patients enrolled and the number of patients who complete molecular screening. Secondary outcomes will include the proportion of screened patients enrolled; proportion of patients who complete molecular screening; the turn-around time of molecular screening; and the value of a brain tumour specific multi-disciplinary tumour board, called the molecular tumour advisory panel as measured by the proportion of patients in whom the treatment recommendation was refined compared with the recommendations from the automated bioinformatics platform of the reference laboratory testing.Ethics and disseminationThe study was approved by the lead Human Research Ethics Committee of the Sydney Local Health District: Protocol No. X19-0383. The study will be conducted in accordance with the principles of the Declaration of Helsinki 2013, guidelines for Good Clinical Practice and the National Health and Medical Research Council National Statement on Ethical Conduct in Human Research (2007, updated 2018 and as amended periodically). Results will be disseminated using a range of media channels including newsletters, social media, scientific conferences and peer-reviewed publications.Trial registration numberACTRN12620000087954; Pre-results.</jats:sec

Lecture notes on behavioural sciences

ix,181 hlm : 21 cm