Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Threatened Species in UK Waters

Global climate change is affecting the distribution of marine species and is thought to represent a threat to biodiversity. Previous studies project expansion of species range for some species and local extinction elsewhere under climate change. Such range shifts raise concern for species whose long-term persistence is already threatened by other human disturbances such as fishing. However, few studies have attempted to assess the effects of future climate change on threatened vertebrate marine species using a multi-model approach. There has also been a recent surge of interest in climate change impacts on protected areas. This study applies three species distribution models and two sets of climate model projections to explore the potential impacts of climate change on marine species by 2050. A set of species in the North Sea, including seven threatened and ten major commercial species were used as a case study. Changes in habitat suitability in selected candidate protected areas around the UK under future climatic scenarios were assessed for these species. Moreover, change in the degree of overlap between commercial and threatened species ranges was calculated as a proxy of the potential threat posed by overfishing through bycatch. The ensemble projections suggest northward shifts in species at an average rate of 27 km per decade, resulting in small average changes in range overlap between threatened and commercially exploited species. Furthermore, the adverse consequences of climate change on the habitat suitability of protected areas were projected to be small. Although the models show large variation in the predicted consequences of climate change, the multi-model approach helps identify the potential risk of increased exposure to human stressors of critically endangered species such as common skate (Dipturus batis) and angelshark (Squatina squatina)

Local biodiversity is higher inside than outside terrestrial protected areas worldwide

Protected areas are widely considered essential for biodiversity conservation. However, few global studies have demonstrated that protection benefits a broad range of species. Using a new global biodiversity database with unprecedented geographic and taxonomic coverage, we compare four biodiversity measures at sites sampled in multiple land uses inside and outside protected areas. Globally, species richness is 10.7% higher and abundance 14.5% higher in samples taken inside protected areas compared to samples taken outside, but neither rarefaction-based richness nor endemicity differ significantly. Importantly, we show that the positive effects of protection are mostly attributable to differences in land use between protected and unprotected sites. Nonetheless, even within some human-dominated land uses, species richness and abundance are higher in protected sites. Our results reinforce the global importance of protected areas but suggest that protection does not consistently benefit species with small ranges or increase the variety of ecological niches

Back from a Predicted Climatic Extinction of an Island Endemic: A Future for the Corsican Nuthatch

The Corsican Nuthatch (Sitta whiteheadi) is red-listed as vulnerable to extinction by the IUCN because of its endemism, reduced population size, and recent decline. A further cause is the fragmentation and loss of its spatially-restricted favourite habitat, the Corsican pine (Pinus nigra laricio) forest. In this study, we aimed at estimating the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of the Corsican Nuthatch using species distribution models. Because this species has a strong trophic association with the Corsican and Maritime pines (P. nigra laricio and P. pinaster), we first modelled the current and future potential distribution of both pine species in order to use them as habitat variables when modelling the nuthatch distribution. However, the Corsican pine has suffered large distribution losses in the past centuries due to the development of anthropogenic activities, and is now restricted to mountainous woodland. As a consequence, its realized niche is likely significantly smaller than its fundamental niche, so that a projection of the current distribution under future climatic conditions would produce misleading results. To obtain a predicted pine distribution at closest to the geographic projection of the fundamental niche, we used available information on the current pine distribution associated to information on the persistence of isolated natural pine coppices. While common thresholds (maximizing the sum of sensitivity and specificity) predicted a potential large loss of the Corsican Nuthatch distribution by 2100, the use of more appropriate thresholds aiming at getting closer to the fundamental distribution of the Corsican pine predicted that 98% of the current presence points should remain potentially suitable for the nuthatch and its range could be 10% larger in the future. The habitat of the endemic Corsican Nuthatch is therefore more likely threatened by an increasing frequency and intensity of wildfires or anthropogenic activities than by climate change

Scale effects on the body size frequency distributions of African birds: patterns and potential mechanisms

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Community-Based Management of Amazonian Biodiversity Assets

The Amazon is the largest forest system on Earth, supporting a variety of indigenous societies, small farmers, extractivists, and artisanal fishers with different cultures and relations with wildlife. However, the Brazilian Amazon has lost more than 436, 000 km2 of forest in the last 30 years, and Protected Areas may not be enough to ensure the conservation of biodiversity and cultural heritage. On the other hand, formal alliances with rural inhabitants can decentralize resource management, strengthen full-time surveillance systems, reduce overall costs, and boost conservation effectiveness. Here, we provide an assessment of the two largest community-based management (CBM) programs in the Brazilian Amazon, which are inducing strong social and ecological benefits at a large scale. First, we show the benefits from CBM of giant arapaima, which has promoted an impressive stock recovery of the world’s largest freshwater scaled fish (Arapaima spp.), generating income and other benefits for rural livelihoods in Amazonian floodplains. Second, we show that CBM of freshwater turtles (Podocnemis spp.) has also promoted the population recovery of overexploited turtles, contributing to the maintenance of important cultural values. We also identified a set of social and institutional principles, and the intrinsic values of natural resources, which can help develop successful CBM programs. Finally, we discuss how these principles can strengthen existing initiatives and/or inspire new ones. Reconciling biodiversity conservation and local aspirations for rural development is an urgent socioecological demand in Amazonia. Raising the profile of successful initiatives can be a powerful strategy to disseminate a message of hope and action to local and international agencies that can support the scaling up of these successful models