Estimating the Duration of Pertussis Immunity Using Epidemiological Signatures

Case notifications of pertussis have shown an increase in a number of countries with high rates of routine pediatric immunization. This has led to significant public health concerns over a possible pertussis re-emergence. A leading proposed explanation for the observed increase in incidence is the loss of immunity to pertussis, which is known to occur after both natural infection and vaccination. Little is known, however, about the typical duration of immunity and its epidemiological implications. Here, we analyze a simple mathematical model, exploring specifically the inter-epidemic period and fade-out frequency. These predictions are then contrasted with detailed incidence data for England and Wales. We find model output to be most sensitive to assumptions concerning naturally acquired immunity, which allows us to estimate the average duration of immunity. Our results support a period of natural immunity that is, on average, long-lasting (at least 30 years) but inherently variable

Seeking treatment for symptomatic malaria in Papua New Guinea

Background: Malaria places a significant burden on the limited resources of many low income countries. Knowing more about why and where people seek treatment will enable policy makers to better allocate the limited resources. This study aims to better understand what influences treatment-seeking behaviour for malaria in one such low-income country context, Papua New Guinea (PNG). Methods: Two culturally, linguistically and demographically different regions in PNG were selected as study sites. A cross sectional household survey was undertaken in both sites resulting in the collection of data on 928 individuals who reported suffering from malaria in the previous four weeks. A probit model was then used to identify the factors determining whether or not people sought treatment for presumptive malaria. Multinomial logit models also assisted in identifying the factors that determined where people sought treatments. Results: Results in this study build upon findings from other studies. For example, while distance in PNG has previously been seen as the primary factor in influencing whether any sort of treatment will be sought, in this study cultural influences and whether it was the first, second or even third treatment for a particular episode of malaria were also important. In addition, although formal health care facilities were the most popular treatment sources, it was also found that traditional healers were a common choice. In turn, the reasons why participants chose a particular type of treatment differed according to the whether they were seeking an initial or subsequent treatments. Conclusions: Simply bringing health services closer to where people live may not always result in a greater use of formal health care facilities. Policy makers in PNG need to consider within-country variation in treatment-seeking behaviour, the important role of traditional healers and also ensure that the community fully understands the potential implications of not seeking treatment for illnesses such as malaria at a formal health care facility.Carol P Davy, Elisa Sicuri, Maria Ome, Ellie Lawrence-Wood, Peter Siba, Gordon Warvi, Ivo Mueller and Lesong Conte

Assessment of the quality of measures of child oral health-related quality of life

Background Several measures of oral health-related quality of life have been developed for children. The most frequently used are the Child Perceptions Questionnaire (CPQ), the Child Oral Impacts on Daily Performances (C-OIDP) and the Child Oral Health Impact Profile (COHIP). The aim of this study was to assess the methodological quality of the development and testing of these three measures. Methods A systematic search strategy was used to identify eligible studies published up to December 2012, using both MEDLINE and Web of Science. Titles and abstracts were read independently by two investigators and full papers retrieved where the inclusion criteria were met. Data were extracted by two teams of two investigators using a piloted protocol. The data were used to describe the development of the measures and their use against existing criteria. The methodological quality and measurement properties of the measures were assessed using standards proposed by the Consensus-based Standards for the Selection of Health Measurement Instruments (COSMIN) group. Results The search strategy yielded 653 papers, of which 417 were duplicates. Following analysis of the abstracts, 119 papers met the inclusion criteria. The majority of papers reported cross-sectional studies (n = 117) with three of longitudinal design. Fifteen studies which had used the original version of the measures in their original language were included in the COSMIN analysis. The most frequently used measure was the CPQ. Reliability and construct validity appear to be adequate for all three measures. Children were not fully involved in item generation which may compromise their content validity. Internal consistency was measured using classic test theory with no evidence of modern psychometric techniques being used to test unidimensionality of the measures included in the COSMIN analysis. Conclusion The three measures evaluated appear to be able to discriminate between groups. CPQ has been most widely tested and several versions are available. COHIP employed a rigorous development strategy but has been tested in fewer populations. C-OIDP is shorter and has been used successfully in epidemiological studies. Further testing using modern psychometric techniques such as item response theory is recommended. Future developments should also focus on the development of measures which can evaluate longitudinal change

First M87 Event Horizon Telescope Results. I. The Shadow of the Supermassive Black Hole

When surrounded by a transparent emission region, black holes are expected to reveal a dark shadow caused by gravitational light bending and photon capture at the event horizon. To image and study this phenomenon, we have assembled the Event Horizon Telescope, a global very long baseline interferometry array observing at a wavelength of 1.3 mm. This allows us to reconstruct event-horizon-scale images of the supermassive black hole candidate in the center of the giant elliptical galaxy M87. We have resolved the central compact radio source as an asymmetric bright emission ring with a diameter of 42 ± 3 μas, which is circular and encompasses a central depression in brightness with a flux ratio 10:1. The emission ring is recovered using different calibration and imaging schemes, with its diameter and width remaining stable over four different observations carried out in different days. Overall, the observed image is consistent with expectations for the shadow of a Kerr black hole as predicted by general relativity. The asymmetry in brightness in the ring can be explained in terms of relativistic beaming of the emission from a plasma rotating close to the speed of light around a black hole. We compare our images to an extensive library of ray-traced general-relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations of black holes and derive a central mass of M = (6.5 ± 0.7) × 109 Me. Our radiowave observations thus provide powerful evidence for the presence of supermassive black holes in centers of galaxies and as the central engines of active galactic nuclei. They also present a new tool to explore gravity in its most extreme limit and on a mass scale that was so far not accessible

First M87 Event Horizon Telescope Results. II. Array and Instrumentation

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) is a very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) array that comprises millimeter- and submillimeter-wavelength telescopes separated by distances comparable to the diameter of the Earth. At a nominal operating wavelength of ~1.3 mm, EHT angular resolution (λ/D) is ~25 μas, which is sufficient to resolve nearby supermassive black hole candidates on spatial and temporal scales that correspond to their event horizons. With this capability, the EHT scientific goals are to probe general relativistic effects in the strong-field regime and to study accretion and relativistic jet formation near the black hole boundary. In this Letter we describe the system design of the EHT, detail the technology and instrumentation that enable observations, and provide measures of its performance. Meeting the EHT science objectives has required several key developments that have facilitated the robust extension of the VLBI technique to EHT observing wavelengths and the production of instrumentation that can be deployed on a heterogeneous array of existing telescopes and facilities. To meet sensitivity requirements, high-bandwidth digital systems were developed that process data at rates of 64 gigabit s−1, exceeding those of currently operating cm-wavelength VLBI arrays by more than an order of magnitude. Associated improvements include the development of phasing systems at array facilities, new receiver installation at several sites, and the deployment of hydrogen maser frequency standards to ensure coherent data capture across the array. These efforts led to the coordination and execution of the first Global EHT observations in 2017 April, and to event-horizon-scale imaging of the supermassive black hole candidate in M87