HOW THE GROWING GAP IN LIFE EXPECTANCY MAY AFFECT RETIREMENT BENEFITS AND REFORMS.

Older Americans have experienced dramatic gains in life expectancy in recent decades, but an emerging literature reveals that these gains are accumulating mostly to those at the top of the income distribution. We explore how growing inequality in life expectancy affects lifetime benefits from Social Security, Medicare, and other programs and how this phenomenon interacts with possible program reforms. We first project that life expectancy at age 50 for males in the two highest income quintiles will rise by 7 to 8 years between the 1930 and 1960 birth cohorts, but that the two lowest income quintiles will experience little to no increase over that time period. This divergence in life expectancy will cause the gap between average lifetime program benefits received by men in the highest and lowest quintiles to widen by $130,000 (in$2009) over this period. Finally we simulate the effect of Social Security reforms such as raising the normal retirement age and changing the benefit formula to see whether they mitigate or enhance the reduced progressivity resulting from the widening gap in life expectancy

Using dynamic microsimulation to project cognitive function in the elderly population.

BackgroundA long-term projection model based on nationally representative data and tracking disease progression across Alzheimer's disease continuum is important for economics evaluation of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (ADOD) therapy.MethodsThe Health and Retirement Study (HRS) includes an adapted version of the Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status (TICS27) to evaluate respondents' cognitive function. We developed an ordered probit transition model to predict future TICS27 score. This transition model is utilized in the Future Elderly Model (FEM), a dynamic microsimulation model of health and health-related economic outcomes for the US population. We validated the FEM TICS27 model using a five-fold cross validation approach, by comparing 10-year (2006-2016) simulated outcomes against observed HRS data.ResultsIn aggregate, the distribution of TICS27 scores after ten years of FEM simulation matches the HRS. FEM's assignment of cognitive/mortality status also matches those observed in HRS on the population level. At the individual level, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve is 0.904 for prediction of dementia or dead with dementia in 10 years, the AUROC for predicting significant cognitive decline in two years for mild cognitive impairment patients is 0.722.ConclusionsThe FEM TICS27 model demonstrates its predictive accuracy for both two- and ten-year cognitive outcomes. Our cognition projection model is unique in its validation with an unbiased approach, resulting in a high-quality platform for assessing the burden of cognitive decline and translating the benefit of innovative therapies into long-term value to society

Benzodiazepine use and the risk of dementia

Abstract Introduction Benzodiazepines (BZDs) are commonly prescribed for anxiety and agitations, which are early symptoms of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD). It is unclear whether BZDs causally affect ADRD risk or are prescribed in response to early symptoms of dementia. Methods We replicate prior case‐control studies using longitudinal Medicare claims. To mitigate bias from prodromal use, we compare rates of ADRD diagnosis for beneficiaries exposed and unexposed to BZDs for cervical/lumbar pain, stenosis, and sciatica, none of which are associated with dementia. Results Approximately 8% of Medicare beneficiaries used a BZD in 2007, increasing to nearly 13% by 2013. Estimates from case‐control designs are sensitive to duration of look‐back period, health histories, medication use, and exclusion of decedents. Incident BZD use is not associated with an increased risk of dementia in an “uncontaminated” sample of beneficiaries prescribed a BZD for pain (odds ratios (ORs) of 1.007 [95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.885, 1.146] and 0.986 [95% CI = 0.877, 1.108], respectively, in the 2013 and 2013 to 2015 pooled samples). Higher levels of BZD exposure (>365 days over a 2‐year period) are associated with increased odds of a dementia diagnosis, but the results are not statistically significant at the 5% or 10% levels (1.190 [95% CI = 0.925, 1.531] and 1.167 [95% CI = 0.919, 1.483]). Discussion We find little evidence of a causal relation between BZD use and dementia risk. Nonetheless, providers should limit the extended use in elderly populations

Estimates of diagnosed dementia prevalence and incidence among diverse beneficiaries in traditional Medicare and Medicare Advantage

Abstract Approximately half of Medicare beneficiaries are enrolled in Medicare Advantage (MA), a private plan alternative to traditional Medicare (TM). Yet little is known about diagnosed dementia rates among MA enrollees, limiting population estimates. All (100%) claims of Medicare beneficiaries using encounter data for MA and claims for TM for the years 2015 to 2018 were used to quantify diagnosed dementia prevalence and incidence rates in MA, compare rates to TM, and provide estimates for the entire Medicare population and for different racial/ethnic populations. In 2017, dementia incidence and prevalence among MA beneficiaries were 2.54% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.53 to 2.55) and 7.04% (95% CI: 7.03 to 7.06). Comparison to TM adjusted for sociodemographic and health differences among beneficiaries in MA and TM; the prevalence of diagnosed dementia among beneficiaries in MA was lower (7.1%; 95% CI: 7.12 to 7.13) than in TM (8.7%; 95% CI: 8.71 to 8.72). The diagnosed dementia incidence rate was also lower in MA (2.50%; 95% CI: 2.50 to 2.50) compared to TM (2.99%; 95% CI: 2.99 to 2.99). There were lower rates in MA compared to TM for men and women and White, Black, Hispanic, Asian, American Indian/Alaska Native persons. Diagnosed dementia prevalence and incidence for the entire Medicare population was 7.9% (95% CI: 7.91 to 7.93) and 2.8% (95% CI: 2.77 to 2.78). Lower diagnosed dementia rates in MA compared to TM may exacerbate racial/ethnic disparities in diagnosed dementia. Rates tracked over time will provide understanding of the impact on dementia diagnosis of 2020 MA risk adjustment for dementia

Educational Gradients in Disability among Asia’s Future Elderly: Projections for the Republic of Korea and Singapore

Asia is home to the most rapidly aging populations in the world. This study focuses on two countries in Asia that are advanced in terms of their demographic transition: the Republic of Korea and Singapore. We developed a demographic and economic state-transition microsimulation model based on the Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging and the Singapore Chinese Health Study. The model was employed to compare projections of functional status and disability among future cohorts of older adults, including disparities in disability prevalence by educational attainment. The model also projects increasing disparities in the prevalence of activities-of-daily-living disability and other chronic diseases between those with low and high educational attainment. Despite overall increases in educational attainment, all elderly, including those with a college degree, experience an increased burden of functional disability and chronic diseases because of survival to older ages. These increases have significant economic and social implications, including increased medical and long-term care expenditures, and an increased caregiver burden

Cost-effectiveness models for Alzheimer’s disease and related dementias: IPECAD modelling workshop cross comparison challenge

INTRODUCTION: The credibility of model-based economic evaluations of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) interventions is central to appropriate decision-making in a policy context. We report on the International PharmacoEconomic Collaboration on Alzheimer’s Disease (IPECAD) Modelling Workshop Challenge. METHODS: Two common benchmark scenarios, for the hypothetical treatment of AD mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and mild dementia, were jointly developed by 29 participants. Model outcomes were summarized, and cross-comparisons were discussed during a structured workshop. RESULTS: A broad concordance was established among participants. Mean 10-year restricted survival and time in MCI in control group ranged across 10 MCI models from 6.7-9.5 years and 3.4-5.6 years, respectively; and across 4 mild dementia models from 5.4-7.9 (survival) and 1.5-4.2 (mild dementia). DISCUSSION: The model comparison increased our understanding of methods, data used, and disease progression. We established a collaboration framework to assess cost-effectiveness outcomes, an important step towards transparent and credible AD models

Cost-effectiveness models for Alzheimer's disease and related dementias: IPECAD modeling workshop cross-comparison challenge

INTRODUCTION: The credibility of model-based economic evaluations of Alzheimer's disease (AD) interventions is central to appropriate decision-making in a policy context. We report on the International PharmacoEconomic Collaboration on Alzheimer's Disease (IPECAD) Modeling Workshop Challenge. METHODS: Two common benchmark scenarios, for the hypothetical treatment of AD mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and mild dementia, were developed jointly by 29 participants. Model outcomes were summarized, and cross-comparisons were discussed during a structured workshop. RESULTS: A broad concordance was established among participants. Mean 10-year restricted survival and time in MCI in the control group ranged across 10 MCI models from 6.7 to 9.5 years and 3.4 to 5.6 years, respectively; and across 4 mild dementia models from 5.4 to 7.9 years (survival) and 1.5 to 4.2 years (mild dementia). DISCUSSION: The model comparison increased our understanding of methods, data used, and disease progression. We established a collaboration framework to assess cost-effectiveness outcomes, an important step toward transparent and credible AD models