Integrated modeling in urban hydrology: reviewing the role of monitoring technology in overcoming the issue of ‘big data’ requirements

Increasingly, the application of models in urban hydrology has undergone a shift toward integrated structures that recognize the interconnected nature of the urban landscape and both the natural and engineered water cycles. Improvements in computational processing during the past few decades have enabled the application of multiple, connected model structures that link previously disparate systems together, incorporating feedbacks and connections. Many applications of integrated models look to assess the impacts of environmental change on physical dynamics and quality of landscapes. Whilst these integrated structures provide a more robust representation of natural dynamics, they often place considerable data requirements on the user, whereby data are required at contrasting spatial and temporal scales which can often transcend multiple disciplines. Concomitantly, our ability to observe complex, natural phenomena at contrasting scales has improved considerably with the advent of increasingly novel monitoring technologies. This has provided a pathway for reducing model uncertainty and improving our confidence in modeled outputs by implementing suitable monitoring regimes. This commentary assesses how component models of an exemplar integrated model have advanced over the past few decades, with a critical focus on the role of monitoring technologies that have enabled better identification of the key physical process. This reduces the uncertainty of processes at contrasting spatial and temporal scales, through a better characterization of feedbacks which then enhances the utility of integrated model applications

Quantifying the impacts of defaunation on natural forest regeneration in a global meta-analysis

Intact forests provide diverse and irreplaceable ecosystem services that are critical to human well-being, such as carbon storage to mitigate climate change. However, the ecosystem functions that underpin these services are highly dependent on the woody vegetation-animal interactions occurring within forests. While vertebrate defaunation is of growing policy concern, the effects of vertebrate loss on natural forest regeneration have yet to be quantified globally. Here we conduct a meta-analysis to assess the direction and magnitude of defaunation impacts on forests. We demonstrate that real-world defaunation caused by hunting and habitat fragmentation leads to reduced forest regeneration, although manipulation experiments provide contrasting findings. The extirpation of primates and birds cause the greatest declines in forest regeneration, emphasising their key role in maintaining carbon stores, and the need for national and international climate change and conservation strategies to protect forests from defaunation fronts as well as deforestation fronts

The impact of natural resource use on bird and reptile communities within multiple-use protected areas: evidence from sub-arid southern Madagascar

Multiple-use protected areas, in which sustainable levels of extractive livelihood activities are permitted, play an increasingly important role in the global protected area estate, and are expected to rise in prevalence. However, we know little about their effectiveness at conserving biodiversity. We surveyed bird and reptile communities in three areas across a forest disturbance gradient resulting from charcoal production and shifting cultivation within a multiple-use protected area in Madagascar’s sub-arid spiny forest. We scored individual species using a Conservation Value Index (CVI; a simple metric based on rarity, threat and distinctiveness), and estimated the total conservation value of each treatment by calculating the sum of frequency-weighted CVI scores across all present species. Bird and reptile community responses to forest disturbance were idiosyncratic. Bird richness was greatest in the moderate-disturbance treatment, but the low-disturbance treatment had the superior conservation value due to higher frequencies of locally-endemic species. Reptile richness was the same in low- and moderate-disturbance treatments, but the conservation value of the latter was greater. The high-disturbance areas had lowest richness and conservation value for both groups. For birds, increasing disturbance levels were accompanied by community turnover from high-value to low-value species, a pattern highlighted by CVI that is masked by assessing species richness alone. Although some endemic species appear to be resilient to degradation, multiple-use protected areas in Madagascar may lose biodiversity since most endemic species are forest-dependent. Stricter protected area models may be more appropriate in areas where much of the high-value biodiversity is sensitive to habitat degradation

A review of modelling tools for implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive in handling diffuse water pollution

A numerical catchment-scale model capable of simulating diffuse water pollution is necessary in sustainable environmental management for better implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive. This paper provides critical reviews of most popular and free models for diffuse water modelling, with detailed sources and application potential. Based upon these reviews, further work of selecting and testing the HSPF model was carried out, with a case study in the Upper Bann Catchment, Northern Ireland. The calibrated and validated HSPF model can well represent the characteristics of surface water quantity and quality. Climate change scenario evaluation in 5 years showed that when the annual mean temperature increase 3◦C the mean yearly total runoff volume will decrease by 11.1% and the mean daily river flow 11.4%. If 20% crop and pasture land is converted into forest land in the study area, the mean river concentration of nitrate, nitrite, NH4 and PO4 in 5 years will decrease by 19.4%, 33.3%, 31.3% and 31.3% respectively. When applying filter strip method in 80% crop and pasture land in the area, the reduction of the mean concentration of nitrate, nitrite, NH4 and PO4 in 5 years will be 15.3%, 33.3%, 31.3%, and 5.6% respectively. This study shows that HSPF is a suitable model in handling diffuse source water pollution, which can be introduced into the Programme of Measures in the River Basin Management Plans for better implementation of the EUWFD