On some limitations of data-driven weather forecasting models

As in many other areas of engineering and applied science, Machine Learning (ML) is having a profound impact in the domain of Weather and Climate Prediction. A very recent development in this area has been the emergence of fully data-driven ML prediction models which routinely claim superior performance to that of traditional physics-based models. In this work, we examine some aspects of the forecasts produced by an exemplar of the current generation of ML models, Pangu-Weather, with a focus on the fidelity and physical consistency of those forecasts and how these characteristics relate to perceived forecast performance. The main conclusion is that Pangu-Weather forecasts, and possibly those of similar ML models, do not have the fidelity and physical consistency of physics-based models and their advantage in accuracy on traditional deterministic metrics of forecast skill can be at least partly attributed to these peculiarities. Balancing forecast skill and physical consistency of ML-driven predictions will be an important consideration for future ML models. However, and similarly to other modern post-processing technologies, the current ML models appear to be already able to add value to standard NWP output for specific forecast applications and combined with their extremely low computational cost during deployment, are set to provide an additional, useful source of forecast information. .Comment: Expanded and revised version of original submissio

Physical Exercise Moderates the Effects of Disability on Depression in People with Multiple Sclerosis during the COVID-19 Outbreak

Physical disability impacts psychosocial wellbeing in people with multiple sclerosis. However, the role of physical activity in this context is still debated. By taking advantage of a previous survey, conducted online from 22 April to 7 May 2020, we performed a post-hoc analysis with the aim to assess the associations between disability, physical exercise, and mental health in multiple sclerosis. We retrieved the following data: (i) sociodemographic information, (ii) changes in lifestyle (including exercise), (iii) physical disability, as measured with the Patient-Determined Disease Steps scale, and (iv) anxiety feelings and depressive symptoms assessed via the items included in the Quality of Life in Neurological Disorders measurement system. Examination of the interaction plot showed that the effect of disability on depression, but not on anxious symptoms, was significant for all levels of physical exercise (low: b = 1.22, 95% C.I. 0.85, 1.58, p < 0.001; moderate: b = 0.95, 95% C.I. 0.66, 1.24, p < 0.001; and high: b = 0.68, 95% C.I. 0.24, 1.13, p = 0.003). Based on these data, we can conclude that disability significantly impacted depression during the COVID-19 pandemic, with physical activity playing a moderating role. Our results suggest that favoring exercise in multiple sclerosis (MS) would ameliorate psychological wellbeing regardless of the level of physical disability

Sexual Dysfunction in People with Multiple Sclerosis: The Role of Disease Severity, Illness Perception, and Depression

Despite being a common issue in people with multiple sclerosis (pwMS), sexual dysfunction is still underinvestigated. This work aims to assess the potential determinants of sexual dysfunction in pwMS by considering its relationship with disease severity (in terms of global disability), illness perception, and depressive symptoms. In this multicenter study, 1010 pwMS responded to an online survey. A serial mediation model considering negative illness perception and depressive symptoms as mediators of the relationship between disease severity and sexual dysfunction was conducted using the SPSS PROCESS Macro with bias-corrected bootstrapping (5000 samples). Disease severity exerts an indirect effect on sexual dysfunction via illness perception, both independently and through depressive symptoms. However, the results indicated that illness perception plays a more crucial role in sexual dysfunction in pwMS with mild disability than in pwMS with moderate-severe disability. This study suggests that higher disability increases its magnitude by enhancing negative illness perception, that, in turn, affects sexual dysfunction both directly and through depressive symptoms, especially in pwMS with mild disability. Modulating the effect of illness perception by favoring adaptive coping strategies might represent a valid approach to mitigate sexual dysfunction symptoms in MS

Ejecta Evolution Following a Planned Impact into an Asteroid: The First Five Weeks

The impact of the DART spacecraft into Dimorphos, moon of the asteroid Didymos, changed Dimorphos' orbit substantially, largely from the ejection of material. We present results from twelve Earth-based facilities involved in a world-wide campaign to monitor the brightness and morphology of the ejecta in the first 35 days after impact. After an initial brightening of ~1.4 magnitudes, we find consistent dimming rates of 0.11-0.12 magnitudes/day in the first week, and 0.08-0.09 magnitudes/day over the entire study period. The system returned to its pre-impact brightness 24.3-25.3 days after impact through the primary ejecta tail remained. The dimming paused briefly eight days after impact, near in time to the appearance of the second tail. This was likely due to a secondary release of material after re-impact of a boulder released in the initial impact, through movement of the primary ejecta through the aperture likely played a role.Comment: 16 pages, 5 Figures, accepted in the Astrophysical Journal Letters (ApJL) on October 16, 202

Disease-Modifying Therapies and Coronavirus Disease 2019 Severity in Multiple Sclerosis

Objective: This study was undertaken to assess the impact of immunosuppressive and immunomodulatory therapies on the severity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in people with multiple sclerosis (PwMS). Methods: We retrospectively collected data of PwMS with suspected or confirmed COVID-19. All the patients had complete follow-up to death or recovery. Severe COVID-19 was defined by a 3-level variable: mild disease not requiring hospitalization versus pneumonia or hospitalization versus intensive care unit (ICU) admission or death. We evaluated baseline characteristics and MS therapies associated with severe COVID-19 by multivariate and propensity score (PS)-weighted ordinal logistic models. Sensitivity analyses were run to confirm the results. Results: Of 844 PwMS with suspected (n = 565) or confirmed (n = 279) COVID-19, 13 (1.54%) died; 11 of them were in a progressive MS phase, and 8 were without any therapy. Thirty-eight (4.5%) were admitted to an ICU; 99 (11.7%) had radiologically documented pneumonia; 96 (11.4%) were hospitalized. After adjusting for region, age, sex, progressive MS course, Expanded Disability Status Scale, disease duration, body mass index, comorbidities, and recent methylprednisolone use, therapy with an anti-CD20 agent (ocrelizumab or rituximab) was significantly associated (odds ratio [OR] = 2.37, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.18-4.74, p = 0.015) with increased risk of severe COVID-19. Recent use (<1 month) of methylprednisolone was also associated with a worse outcome (OR = 5.24, 95% CI = 2.20-12.53, p = 0.001). Results were confirmed by the PS-weighted analysis and by all the sensitivity analyses. Interpretation: This study showed an acceptable level of safety of therapies with a broad array of mechanisms of action. However, some specific elements of risk emerged. These will need to be considered while the COVID-19 pandemic persists

COVID-19 Severity in Multiple Sclerosis: Putting Data Into Context

Background and objectives: It is unclear how multiple sclerosis (MS) affects the severity of COVID-19. The aim of this study is to compare COVID-19-related outcomes collected in an Italian cohort of patients with MS with the outcomes expected in the age- and sex-matched Italian population. Methods: Hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and death after COVID-19 diagnosis of 1,362 patients with MS were compared with the age- and sex-matched Italian population in a retrospective observational case-cohort study with population-based control. The observed vs the expected events were compared in the whole MS cohort and in different subgroups (higher risk: Expanded Disability Status Scale [EDSS] score > 3 or at least 1 comorbidity, lower risk: EDSS score ≤ 3 and no comorbidities) by the χ2 test, and the risk excess was quantified by risk ratios (RRs). Results: The risk of severe events was about twice the risk in the age- and sex-matched Italian population: RR = 2.12 for hospitalization (p < 0.001), RR = 2.19 for ICU admission (p < 0.001), and RR = 2.43 for death (p < 0.001). The excess of risk was confined to the higher-risk group (n = 553). In lower-risk patients (n = 809), the rate of events was close to that of the Italian age- and sex-matched population (RR = 1.12 for hospitalization, RR = 1.52 for ICU admission, and RR = 1.19 for death). In the lower-risk group, an increased hospitalization risk was detected in patients on anti-CD20 (RR = 3.03, p = 0.005), whereas a decrease was detected in patients on interferon (0 observed vs 4 expected events, p = 0.04). Discussion: Overall, the MS cohort had a risk of severe events that is twice the risk than the age- and sex-matched Italian population. This excess of risk is mainly explained by the EDSS score and comorbidities, whereas a residual increase of hospitalization risk was observed in patients on anti-CD20 therapies and a decrease in people on interferon

DMTs and Covid-19 severity in MS: a pooled analysis from Italy and France

We evaluated the effect of DMTs on Covid-19 severity in patients with MS, with a pooled-analysis of two large cohorts from Italy and France. The association of baseline characteristics and DMTs with Covid-19 severity was assessed by multivariate ordinal-logistic models and pooled by a fixed-effect meta-analysis. 1066 patients with MS from Italy and 721 from France were included. In the multivariate model, anti-CD20 therapies were significantly associated (OR = 2.05, 95%CI = 1.39–3.02, p < 0.001) with Covid-19 severity, whereas interferon indicated a decreased risk (OR = 0.42, 95%CI = 0.18–0.99, p = 0.047). This pooled-analysis confirms an increased risk of severe Covid-19 in patients on anti-CD20 therapies and supports the protective role of interferon