Redefining the "carrier" state for foot-and-mouth disease from the dynamics of virus persistence in endemically affected cattle populations

The foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) “carrier” state was defined by van Bekkum in 1959. It was based on the recovery of infectious virus 28 days or more post infection and has been a useful construct for experimental studies. Using historic data from 1,107 cattle, collected as part of a population based study of endemic FMD in 2000, we developed a mixed effects logistic regression model to predict the probability of recovering viable FMDV by probang and culture, conditional on the animal’s age and time since last reported outbreak. We constructed a second set of models to predict the probability of an animal being probang positive given its antibody response in three common non-structural protein (NSP) ELISAs and its age. We argue that, in natural ecological settings, the current definition of a ”carrier” fails to capture the dynamics of either persistence of the virus (as measured by recovery using probangs) or the uncertainty in transmission from such animals that the term implies. In these respects it is not particularly useful. We therefore propose the first predictive statistical models for identifying persistently infected cattle in an endemic setting that captures some of the dynamics of the probability of persistence. Furthermore, we provide a set of predictive tools to use alongside NSP ELISAs to help target persistently infected cattle

Characterisation of the Wildlife Reservoir Community for Human and Animal Trypanosomiasis in the Luangwa Valley, Zambia

Animal and human trypanosomiasis are constraints to both animal and human health in Sub-Saharan Africa, but there is little recent evidence as to how these parasites circulate in natural hosts in natural ecosystems. A cross-sectional survey of trypanosome prevalence in 418 wildlife hosts was conducted in the Luangwa Valley, Zambia, from 2005 to 2007. The overall prevalence in all species was 13.9%. Infection was significantly more likely to be detected in waterbuck, lion, greater kudu and bushbuck, with a clear pattern apparent of the most important hosts for each trypanosome species. Human infective Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense parasites were identified for the first time in African buffalo and T. brucei s.l. in leopard. Variation in infection is demonstrated at species level rather than at family or sub-family level. A number of significant risk factors are shown to interact to influence infection rates in wildlife including taxonomy, habitat and blood meal preference. Trypanosoma parasites circulate within a wide and diverse host community in this bio-diverse ecosystem. Consistent land use patterns over the last century have resulted in epidemiological stability, but this may be threatened by the recent influx of people and domesticated livestock into the mid-Luangwa Valley