Prior event rate ratio adjustment produced estimates consistent with randomized trial: a diabetes case study

Objectives: Electronic health records (EHR) provide a valuable resource for assessing drug side-effects, but treatments are not randomly allocated in routine care creating the potential for bias. We conduct a case study using the Prior Event Rate Ratio (PERR) Pairwise method to reduce unmeasured confounding bias in side-effect estimates for two second-line therapies for type 2 diabetes, thiazolidinediones, and sulfonylureas. Study design and settings: Primary care data were extracted from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (n = 41,871). We utilized outcomes from the period when patients took first-line metformin to adjust for unmeasured confounding. Estimates for known side-effects and a negative control outcome were compared with the A Diabetes Outcome Progression Trial (ADOPT) trial (n = 2,545). Results: When on metformin, patients later prescribed thiazolidinediones had greater risks of edema, HR 95% CI 1.38 (1.13, 1.68) and gastrointestinal side-effects (GI) 1.47 (1.28, 1.68), suggesting the presence of unmeasured confounding. Conventional Cox regression overestimated the risk of edema on thiazolidinediones and identified a false association with GI. The PERR Pairwise estimates were consistent with ADOPT: 1.43 (1.10, 1.83) vs. 1.39 (1.04, 1.86), respectively, for edema, and 0.91 (0.79, 1.05) vs. 0.94 (0.80, 1.10) for GI. Conclusion: The PERR Pairwise approach offers potential for enhancing postmarketing surveillance of side-effects from EHRs but requires careful consideration of assumptions.This article is freely available via Open Access. Click on the Publisher URL to access it via the publisher's site.The MASTERMIND (MRC APBI Stratification and Extreme Response Mechanism IN Diabetes) consortium is funded by the U.K Medical Research Council funded study grant number MR/N00633X/1. The funder had no role in study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, or writing of the report. IQVIA provided some funding for this project.published version, accepted version (12 month embargo), submitted versio

Development of oedema is associated with an improved glycaemic response in patients initiating thiazolidinediones: a MASTERMIND study

Abstracts of the 51st EASD Annual Meeting, Stockholm, Sweden, 14–18 September 2015This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Springer VerlagBackground and aims: Oedema is a common and serious side effect of thiazolidinedione therapy. A stratified medicines approach would aim to give thiazolidinediones to patients likely to have a good glycaemic response but to not develop oedema. We investigated whether oedema was associated with glycaemic response to thiazolidinedione therapy. Materials and methods: We retrospectively studied 11,459 patients initiating a thiazolidinedione from UK primary care data (Clinical Practice Research Datalink), and identified medical records of new oedema in the subsequent twelve months. Response was defined as change in HbA1c at twelve months and was adjusted for baseline HbA1c, baseline BMI, gender and compliance (medication possession ratio). In secondary analyses we restricted oedema classification to patients with concomitant weight gain. As a comparison the same analysis was performed in 13,089 patients initiating a sulfonylurea. Results: The 5% of patients with recorded oedema on thiazolidinediones had a mean (CI) 2.2 (1.1-3.2)mmol/mol greater fall in HbA1c (p3 kg (p< 0.001) and a 3.6 (1.8-5.4)mmol/mol greater fall when weight gain >5 kg (p3 kg (p=0.19). Conclusion: Patients with Type 2 diabetes who develop oedema on initiating thiazolidinediones have an improved glycaemic response, and more severe oedema may be associated with greater reductions in HbA1c. An association between oedema and glycaemic response was not observed in patients initiating sulfonylureas. This supports glycaemic lowering and fluid retention being mediated by a common pathway of thiazolidinedione drug action.Supported by: MRC grant MR-K005707-

Patients who develop oedema on initiating thiazolidinedione therapy have an improved glycaemic response: a MASTERMIND study

Special Issue: Abstracts of the Diabetes UK Professional Conference 2015, ExCeL London, 11–13 March 2015This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from WileyBackground/aim: Oedema is a common and serious side effect ofthiazolidinedione therapy. A stratified medicine approach wouldaim to give thiazolidinediones to patients likely to have a goodglycaemic response but not to develop oedema. We investigatedwhether oedema was associated with glycaemic response tothiazolidinedione therapy.Methods: We studied 10,486 patients initiating a thiazolidinedionefrom Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), and identifiedmedical records of oedema in the subsequent 12 months. Responsewas defined as change in HbA1c at 12 months and was adjusted forbaseline HbA1c, baseline body mass index, gender and adherence(medication possession ratio). In secondary analyses we restrictedoedema classification to patients with concomitant weight gain. As acomparison the same analysis was performed in 13,089 patientsinitiating a sulfonylurea.Results: The 3% of patients with recorded oedema onthiazolidinediones had a mean (confidence interval) 3 (1.7–4.3)mmol/mol greater fall in HbA1c (p 3kg (p 8kg (p 3kg (p=0.19).Conclusion: Patients with Type 2 diabetes who develop oedemaon initiating thiazolidinediones have an improved glycaemicresponse, and more severe oedema is associated with greaterHbA1c reduction. This supports glycaemic lowering andfluid retention being mediated by a common pathway ofthiazolidinedione drug action

Are the new drugs better? Changing UK prescribing of Type 2 diabetes medications and effects on HbA1c and weight, 2010 to 2016

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via the DOI in this record.Aim: The availability of new glucose‐lowering drugs has changed UK National Institute of Clinical Excellence Type 2 diabetes guidelines, but there has been little evaluation of real‐world use of these drugs, or of the population‐level impact of their use. We examined changes in UK prescribing for patients starting second‐ and third‐line medications, and population‐level trends in glycaemic response and weight change. Methods: We extracted incident second‐ and third‐line oral prescription records for patients with Type 2 diabetes in the UK‐representative Clinical Practice Research Datalink, 2010 to 2016 (n = 68,902). Each year we calculated the proportion of each drug prescribed as the percentage of the total prescribed. We estimated annual mean six‐month HbA1c response and weight change using linear regression, standardised for clinical characteristics. Results: Use of Dipeptidyl peptidase‐4 (DPP4) inhibitors has increased markedly to overtake sulfonylureas as the most commonly prescribed second‐line drug in 2016 (43% vs 34% of total prescriptions compared with 18% v 59% in 2010). Use of sodium‐glucose co‐transporter‐2 (SGLT2) inhibitors has increased rapidly to 14% of second‐line and 27% of third‐line prescriptions in 2016. Mean HbA1c response at six months was stable over time (2016: 13.5 (95% confidence interval 12.8, 14.1) mmol/mol vs 2010: 13.9 (13.6;14.2) mmol/mol, p = 0.21). We found mean weight loss at six months in 2016, in contrast to 2010 where there was mean weight gain (2016: −1.2 (−0.9; −1.5) kg vs 2010: +0.4 (+0.3; +0.5) kg, p < 0.001). Conclusion: The pattern of drug prescribing to manage patients with Type 2 diabetes has changed rapidly in the United Kingdom. Increasing use of DPP4 inhibitors and SGLT2 inhibitors has not resulted in improved glycaemic control but has improved the body weight of patients starting second‐ and third‐line therapy. Acknowledgement: This abstract is submitted on behalf of the MASTERMIND consortium

Development of a treatment selection algorithm for SGLT2 and DPP-4 inhibitor therapies in people with type 2 diabetes: a retrospective cohort study

This is the final version. Available from Elsevier via the DOI in this record. Data sharing: CPRD data are available by application to the CPRD Independent Scientific Advisory Committee and clinical trial data are accessible by application to the Yale University Open Data Access Project and Vivli.Background Current treatment guidelines do not provide recommendations to support the selection of treatment for most people with type 2 diabetes. We aimed to develop and validate an algorithm to allow selection of optimal treatment based on glycaemic response, weight change, and tolerability outcomes when choosing between SGLT2 inhibitor or DPP-4 inhibitor therapies. Methods In this retrospective cohort study, we identified patients initiating SGLT2 and DPP-4 inhibitor therapies after Jan 1, 2013, from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). We excluded those who received SGLT2 or DPP-4 inhibitors as first-line treatment or insulin at the same time, had estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of less than 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or did not have a valid baseline glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) measure (<53 or ≥120 mmol/mol). The primary efficacy outcome was the HbA1c value reached 6 months after drug initiation, adjusted for baseline HbA1c. Clinical features associated with differential HbA1c outcome on the two therapies were identified in CPRD (n=26 877), and replicated in reanalysis of 14 clinical trials (n=10 414). An algorithm to predict individual-level differential HbA1c outcome on the two therapies was developed in CPRD (derivation; n=14 069) and validated in head-to-head trials (n=2499) and CPRD (independent validation; n=9376). In CPRD, we further explored heterogeneity in 6-month weight change and treatment discontinuation. Findings Among 10 253 patients initiating SGLT2 inhibitors and 16 624 patients initiating DPP-4 inhibitors in CPRD, baseline HbA1c, age, BMI, eGFR, and alanine aminotransferase were associated with differential HbA1c outcome with SGLT2 inhibitor and DPP-4 inhibitor therapies. The median age of participants was 62·0 years (IQR 55·0–70·0). 10 016 (37·3%) were women and 16 861 (62·7%) were men. An algorithm based on these five features identified a subgroup, representing around four in ten CPRD patients, with a 5 mmol/mol or greater observed benefit with SGLT2 inhibitors in all validation cohorts (CPRD 8·8 mmol/mol [95% CI 7·8–9·8]; CANTATA-D and CANTATA-D2 trials 5·8 mmol/mol [3·9–7·7]; BI1245.20 trial 6·6 mmol/mol [2·2–11·0]). In CPRD, predicted differential HbA1c response with SGLT2 inhibitor and DPP-4 inhibitor therapies was not associated with weight change. Overall treatment discontinuation within 6 months was similar in patients predicted to have an HbA1c benefit with SGLT2 inhibitors over DPP-4 inhibitors (median 15·2% [13·2–20·3] vs 14·4% [12·9–16·7]). A smaller subgroup predicted to have greater HbA1c reduction with DPP-4 inhibitors were twice as likely to discontinue SGLT2 inhibitors than DPP-4 inhibitors (median 26·8% [23·4–31·0] vs 14·8% [12·9–16·8]). Interpretation A validated treatment selection algorithm for SGLT2 inhibitor and DPP-4 inhibitor therapies can support decisions on optimal treatment for people with type 2 diabetes.BHF-Turing Cardiovascular Data Science AwardMedical Research Counci

Withania somnifera Root Extract Enhances Chemotherapy through ‘Priming’

Withania somnifera extracts are known for their anti-cancerous, anti-inflammatory and antioxidative properties. One of their mechanisms of actions is to modulate mitochondrial function through increasing oxidative stress. Recently ‘priming’ has been suggested as a potential mechanism for enhancing cancer cell death. In this study we demonstrate that ‘priming’, in HT-29 colon cells, with W. somnifera root extract increased the potency of the chemotherapeutic agent cisplatin. We have also showed the W. somnifera root extract enhanced mitochondrial dysfunction and that the underlying mechanism of ‘priming’ was selectively through increased ROS. Moreover, we showed that this effect was not seen in non-cancerous cells

West Antarctic ice loss influenced by internal climate variability and anthropogenic forcing

Recent ice loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has been caused by ocean melting of ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea. Eastward wind anomalies at the shelf break enhance the import of warm Circumpolar Deep Water onto the Amundsen Sea continental shelf, which creates transient melting anomalies with an approximately decadal period. No anthropogenic influence on this process has been established. Here, we combine observations and climate model simulations to suggest that increased greenhouse gas forcing caused shelf-break winds to transition from mean easterlies in the 1920s to the near-zero mean zonal winds of the present day. Strong internal climate variability, primarily linked to the tropical Pacific, is superimposed on this forced trend. We infer that the Amundsen Sea experienced decadal ocean ariability throughout the twentieth century, with warm anomalies gradually becoming more prevalent, offering a credible explanation for the ongoing ice loss. Existing climate model projections show that strong future greenhouse gas forcing creates persistent mean westerly shelf-break winds by 2100, suggesting a further enhancement of warm ocean anomalies. These wind changes are weaker under a scenario in which greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilized

PI3K Signaling in Normal B Cells and Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia (CLL).

B cells provide immunity to extracellular pathogens by secreting a diverse repertoire of antibodies with high affinity and specificity for exposed antigens. The B cell receptor (BCR) is a transmembrane antibody, which facilitates the clonal selection of B cells producing secreted antibodies of the same specificity. The diverse antibody repertoire is generated by V(D)J recombination of heavy and light chain genes, whereas affinity maturation is mediated by activation-induced cytidine deaminase (AID)-mediated mutagenesis. These processes, which are essential for the generation of adaptive humoral immunity, also render B cells susceptible to chromosomal rearrangements and point mutations that in some cases lead to cancer. In this chapter, we will review the central role of PI3K s in mediating signals from the B cell receptor that not only facilitate the development of functional B cell repertoire, but also support the growth and survival of neoplastic B cells, focusing on chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) B cells. Perhaps because of the central role played by PI3K in BCR signaling, B cell leukemia and lymphomas are the first diseases for which a PI3K inhibitor has been approved for clinical use