Assessment and Implication of Prognostic Imbalance in Randomized Controlled Trials with a Binary Outcome – A Simulation Study

Chance imbalance in baseline prognosis of a randomized controlled trial can lead to over or underestimation of treatment effects, particularly in trials with small sample sizes. Our study aimed to (1) evaluate the probability of imbalance in a binary prognostic factor (PF) between two treatment arms, (2) investigate the impact of prognostic imbalance on the estimation of a treatment effect, and (3) examine the effect of sample size (n) in relation to the first two objectives.We simulated data from parallel-group trials evaluating a binary outcome by varying the risk of the outcome, effect of the treatment, power and prevalence of the PF, and n. Logistic regression models with and without adjustment for the PF were compared in terms of bias, standard error, coverage of confidence interval and statistical power.For a PF with a prevalence of 0.5, the probability of a difference in the frequency of the PF≥5% reaches 0.42 with 125/arm. Ignoring a strong PF (relative risk = 5) leads to underestimating the strength of a moderate treatment effect, and the underestimate is independent of n when n is >50/arm. Adjusting for such PF increases statistical power. If the PF is weak (RR = 2), adjustment makes little difference in statistical inference. Conditional on a 5% imbalance of a powerful PF, adjustment reduces the likelihood of large bias. If an absolute measure of imbalance ≥5% is deemed important, including 1000 patients/arm provides sufficient protection against such an imbalance. Two thousand patients/arm may provide an adequate control against large random deviations in treatment effect estimation in the presence of a powerful PF.The probability of prognostic imbalance in small trials can be substantial. Covariate adjustment improves estimation accuracy and statistical power, and hence should be performed when strong PFs are observed

Conceptualizing and measuring distance in international business research:Recurring questions and best practice guidelines

Distance is a central concept in international business research, yet there is debate about the construct as well as its operationalization. In this editorial, we address three of the most important recurring questions posed by authors, editors, and reviewers by examining the theory, methods, and data of distance research. We discuss (1) how to theorize on distance, and (2) what method and (3) what data to use when constructing a distance index. We develop practical recommendations grounded in theory, illustrating and supporting them by calculating cross-country distance indices for all available country pairs and two of the most used distance indices: cultural and institutional. We show that, whereas a specific method to calculate distance may matter to some extent, the choice for a specific cultural or institutional framework to measure cultural or institutional distance has a major impact on country-pair distances. Overall, this editorial highlights the importance of matching data and method to the theoretical argument.</p

The transcriptomics of an experimentally evolved plant-virus interaction

[EN] Models of plant-virus interaction assume that the ability of a virus to infect a host genotype depends on the matching between virulence and resistance genes. Recently, we evolved tobacco etch potyvirus (TEV) lineages on different ecotypes of Arabidopsis thaliana, and found that some ecotypes selected for specialist viruses whereas others selected for generalists. Here we sought to evaluate the transcriptomic basis of such relationships. We have characterized the transcriptomic responses of five ecotypes infected with the ancestral and evolved viruses. Genes and functional categories differentially expressed by plants infected with local TEV isolates were identified, showing heterogeneous responses among ecotypes, although significant parallelism existed among lineages evolved in the same ecotype. Although genes involved in immune responses were altered upon infection, other functional groups were also pervasively over-represented, suggesting that plant resistance genes were not the only drivers of viral adaptation. Finally, the transcriptomic consequences of infection with the generalist and specialist lineages were compared. Whilst the generalist induced very similar perturbations in the transcriptomes of the different ecotypes, the perturbations induced by the specialist were divergent. Plant defense mechanisms were activated when the infecting virus was specialist but they were down-regulated when infecting with generalist.We thank Francisca de la Iglesia and Paula Agudo for excellent technical assistance and our labmates for useful discussions and suggestions. 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Estimators for the common principal components model based on reweighting: influence functions and Monte Carlo study

Common principal components, Outlier detection, Projection-Pursuit, Robust estimation, Reweighted estimators,