Scenario analysis of pollutants loads to European regional seas for the year 2020. Part II: Assessment of priority chemicals – an example with three pilot substances

In order to support the implementation of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive, DG Environment and the Joint Research Centre joined to carry out a study on the expected cumulative impact of existing EU environmental legislation on the quality of the marine environment, with specific reference to the case of aquatic discharges to the European seas. The report describes a few scenario analyses affecting emissions to the European regional seas up to 2020 for Lindane, Trifluralin and Perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) taken as pilot substances. The scenarios developed are agreed with stakeholders at DG ENV following some preparatory meetings. The scenarios do not intend be exhaustive, but examples of what can be further achieved making use of the modelling and database development made in the different phases of the project. For Lindane, the model estimated European sea load of 745 tons per 1995, based on the official emission data provided by EMEP, appears to be reduced by 98.3% in 2005, ten years after the start of the EU regulations for γ-HCH. Besides, under the BAU scenario, a Lindane sea load of ca.12.5 tons per year should be expected. The trend and ban scenarios support, respectively, a reduction of the load to the European seas in 2020 by 74% and 95% when compared to the BAU estimate. Aimed at Trifluralin, according to the BAU scenario, an annual load of ca.61.7 tones is estimated in 2020. However, this is an overestimation, because the aggregated emission data of EUROSTAT for the agriculture use of the entire group of dinitroaniline herbicides in for EU25 have been considered as model input data. The complete ban scenario forecasts ca. 0.07 t/y and in practice eliminates the concern about loads of Trifluralin to European seas to a negligible level in a time-frame of one year due to degradation in soil. Considering PFOS under BAU scenario conditions the total sea load from all European contries is estimated to be 5.8 tons per year. The model forecasts approximately a half of this amount when a 50% reduction of emissions takes place.JRC.H.1-Water Resource

Scenario analysis of pollutants loads to European regional seas for the year 2020. Part I: Policy options and alternative measures to mitigate land based emission of nutrients

A spatially explicit statistical approach (GREEN model) applied to continental Europe on a sub-catchment basis, is used to link input from anthropogenic activities and nutrient loads into European Seas (namely nitrogen and phosphorous). Effectiveness of environmental legislation is assessed at the horizon 2020, emphasizing the regional differences between European countries as well as the respective contribution of anthropogenic changes and hydrological fluctuation in nutrient exports. The set of scenarios analyzed includes a business as usual situation, a full implementation of on going policy options, a change in European diet based on a strong reduction of meat intake, and optimized management of agricultural practices. All prospective analyses are implemented for EU-27 and are discussed in terms of capacities to mitigate land based emissions of nutrient, and also according to their impacts on the loads of nutrient exported to European coastal areas.JRC.H.1-Water Resource

EU Wide Monitoring Survey of Polar Persistent Pollutants in European River Waters

This study provides the first EU-wide reconnaissance of the occurrence of polar organic persistent pollutants in European river waters. 122 individual water samples from over 100 European rivers, streams or similar water bodies from 27 European Countries were analysed for 35 selected compounds, comprising pharmaceuticals (e.g. carbamazepine, diclofenac), antibiotics (sulfamethoxazole), pesticides (e.g. 2,4-D, mecoprop, bentazone, terbutylazine), perfluorinated compounds PFCs (PFOS, PFOA), benzotriazoles (corrosion inhibitors), hormones (estrone, estradiol), and alkylphenolics (bisphenol A, nonylphenol). Only the dissolved (liquid) water phase, and not the suspend material was investigated. Around 40 laboratories actively participated in this sampling and monitoring exercise organised by the Joint Research Centre¿s Institute for Environment and Sustainability (JRC-IES) of the European Commission (EC) in autumn 2007. The selection of sampling sites was done by the participating EU Member States. The most frequently and at the highest concentration levels detected compounds were benzotriazole, caffeine, carbamazepine, tolyltriazole, and nonylphenoxy acetic acid (NPE1C). Other important substances identified were naproxen, bezafibrate, ibuprofen, gemfibrozil, PFOS, PFOA, sulfamethoxazole, isoproturon, diuron, and nonylphenol. The highest median concentrations of all samples were measured for benzotriazole (226 ng/L), caffeine (72 ng/L), carbamazepine (75 ng/L), tolyltriazole (140 ng/L), and NPE1C (233 ng/L). Relatively high perfluorooctanoate (PFOA) levels were detected in the Rivers Danube, Scheldt, Rhone, and Wyre, and ¿elevated¿ perfluorooctansulfonate (PFOS) concentrations in the Rivers Scheldt, Seine, Krka, Severn, Rhine, and Llobregat. A higher median concentration for all river samples was found for PFOS (6 ng/L), compared to PFOA (3 ng/L). Only about 10 % of the river water samples analysed could be classified as ¿very clean¿ in terms of chemical pollution, since they contained only a few compounds in very low concentrations. The most pristine water samples came from Estonia, Lithuania, and Sweden. For the target compounds chosen, we are proposing limit values in surface waters which are not based on eco-toxicological considerations; these warning levels are (for most compounds) close to the 90th percentile of all water samples analysed. A first EU-wide data set has been created on the occurrence of polar persistent pollutants in river surface waters to be used for continental scale risk assessment and related decision support.JRC.H.5-Rural, water and ecosystem resource

Assessment of Persistent Organic Pollutants load to marine environment by MAPPE-Global model focusing on European regional seas

MAPPE-Global modeling tool belongs to the group of the global box models for environmental fate and transport of POPs. The estimated error level of MAPPE-Global is about a factor of two, which suggests that the model could be considered as a tool for a screening or initial evaluation of chemical risk for POPs at global scale. The verified MAPPE-Global is applied in practical assessments of chemical loads to the European regional seas. The PCBs case study relates to a sum of 22 congeners and considers two emission scenarios: first - the current status relative to the 2010 year; second – a future projection corresponding to the 2020 year. The total amount of 22PCBs released to air equals to 101.03 t for year 2010 and to 50.2 t for year 2020, respectively. The Baseline scenario for Lindane assumes, for the reference year 2005, 86.6 t atmospheric emissions only from European sources and omits the impact of the long range atmospheric transport. The second scenario for Lindane aims to targeting the situation in the year 2020. This scenario (denoted as LRT) suggests no emissions to atmosphere from any European origin due to the banning of this substance but admits that Europe is affected by an unavoidable „import” of 5.4 t Lindane through trans-continental air transport. According to the MAPPE-Global model, the extended European area is exporting to the marine water 3.7 t of 22PCBs in 2010 and 1.9 t in 2020, respectively. In both scenarios, the most affected seas are the Mediterranean Sea (ca.35% from the total) followed by Northern (ca. 21.5%) and Black sea (ca. 19%). It was estimated that the European seas receive by atmospheric deposition about 7.9 t of 22PCBs in 2010 and ca. 4t in 2020. This is two times more when comparing to the entire riverine discharge of 22PCBs for these years. MAPPE-Global forecasts 10.1 t riverine sea load of Lindane under the Baseline scenario and 0.26t in the case of LRT meaning 97% reduction compared to the baseline option. The highest discharges are observed for Atlantic Ocean – in Baseline scenario 2.2t (21.8% from the total) and for LRT 0.06t (23%); and Mediterranean Sea - Baseline 3.5t (34.7%) and LRT 0.04t (15.4%). For the gamma-HCH, likewise for the PCBs, it is found that the atmospheric deposition over the European seas dominate the river input to the coastal zone. Under the Baseline scenario, the total air deposition (50.2t/y) is about 5 times higher than the riverine component of the sea load. Potentially the outcome of MAPPE-Global model could serve in the assessments of different policy options related to the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) or Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) as well as to support the implementation of the European sea conventions as HELCOM (Baltic Sea), OSPAR (North-East Atlantic), MEDPOL (Mediterranean Sea) and BSC (Black Sea).JRC.H.1-Water Resource

Comparison of Monitoring Approaches for Selected Priority Pollutants in Surface Water - An Initiative in support to the Water Framework Directive Chemical Monitoring Activity

Laboratories from seven EU Member States under the coordination of the Joint Research Centre and in collaboration with the Provincia di Ferrara participated in a technical on-site project during which sampling and analytical methodologies for chemical monitoring according to proposed WFD provisions have been compared. Laboratories had been invited to take samples from a river according to their standard protocols and to analyse them for PAHs, PBDE and Nonyl-, Octylphenol. It was shown that it is possible to analyse contaminants at relevant levels. Results showed also that currently only experienced laboratories can achieve the required performance, indicating the need for improvement at European level.JRC.H.5-Rural, water and ecosystem resource

International Migration Drivers

The International Migration Drivers report quantifies the relative weight of the drivers of migration at international level in a comprehensive way by income levels of countries of origin. Different channels of migration (voluntary migration flows between 1980 and 2017, asylum seekers, residence permits) are analysed separately. The drivers consider both structural characteristics of countries and individual characteristics of persons planning and preparing to migrate. The study of the drivers of past migrations is used to formulate better informed migration scenarios for the future with a medium to long term perspective. In addition, findings of the report are key to understanding the root causes of migration addressed by the European Agenda on Migration and the upcoming Global Compact for Migration.JRC.E.6-Demography, Migration and Governanc

The Challenge of Resilience in a Globalised World

Resilience determines the capacity to successfully deal with difficult events and to adapt and overcome adversity. It creates stability in a changing world which in turn promotes job creation, economic growth and environmental sustainability. Resilience is a fundamental prerequisite for Europe as the largest integrated economic area in the world and has an important social dimension which requires the active cooperation of all stakeholders; citizens, the private sector, governments and NGOs included. This report discusses the concept of resilience from different perspectives and the role of science in the continuous process of building a resilient, stable, competitive and prosperous Europe.JRC.G-Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen (Ispra

ARTEFACTS: How do we want to deal with the future of our one and only planet?

The European Commission’s Science and Knowledge Service, the Joint Research Centre (JRC), decided to try working hand-in-hand with leading European science centres and museums. Behind this decision was the idea that the JRC could better support EU Institutions in engaging with the European public. The fact that European Union policies are firmly based on scientific evidence is a strong message which the JRC is uniquely able to illustrate. Such a collaboration would not only provide a platform to explain the benefits of EU policies to our daily lives but also provide an opportunity for European citizens to engage by taking a more active part in the EU policy making process for the future. A PILOT PROGRAMME To test the idea, the JRC launched an experimental programme to work with science museums: a perfect partner for three compelling reasons. Firstly, they attract a large and growing number of visitors. Leading science museums in Europe have typically 500 000 visitors per year. Furthermore, they are based in large European cities and attract local visitors as well as tourists from across Europe and beyond. The second reason for working with museums is that they have mastered the art of how to communicate key elements of sophisticated arguments across to the public and making complex topics of public interest readily accessible. That is a high-value added skill and a crucial part of the valorisation of public-funded research, never to be underestimated. Finally museums are, at present, undergoing something of a renaissance. Museums today are vibrant environments offering new techniques and technologies to both inform and entertain, and attract visitors of all demographics.JRC.H.2-Knowledge Management Methodologies, Communities and Disseminatio

Kinetic Studies of Lanthanide Interactions with Humic Substances by Time Resolved Laser Induced Fluorescence

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