Improving survey methods in sero-epidemiological studies of injecting drug users: a case example of two cross sectional surveys in Serbia and Montenegro

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the prevalence of HIV or HCV in injecting drug users (IDUs) in Serbia and Montenegro. We measured prevalence of antibodies to HIV (anti-HIV) and hepatitis C virus (anti-HCV), and risk factors for anti-HCV, in community-recruited IDUs in Belgrade and Podgorica, and determined the performance of a parallel rapid HIV testing algorithm. METHODS: Respondent driven sampling and audio-computer assisted survey interviewing (ACASI) methods were employed. Dried blood spots were collected for unlinked anonymous antibody testing. Belgrade IDUs were offered voluntary confidential rapid HIV testing using a parallel testing algorithm, the performance of which was compared with standard laboratory tests. Predictors of anti-HCV positivity and the diagnostic accuracy of the rapid HIV test algorithm were calculated. RESULTS: Overall population prevalence of anti-HIV and anti-HCV in IDUs were 3% and 63% respectively in Belgrade (n = 433) and 0% and 22% in Podgorica (n = 328). Around a quarter of IDUs in each city had injected with used needles and syringes in the last four weeks. In both cities anti-HCV positivity was associated with increasing number of years injecting (eg Belgrade adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 5.6 (95% CI 3.2-9.7) and Podgorica AOR 2.5 (1.3-5.1) for >or= 10 years v 0-4 years), daily injecting (Belgrade AOR 1.6 (1.0-2.7), Podgorica AOR 2.1 (1.3-5.1)), and having ever shared used needles/syringes (Belgrade AOR 2.3 (1.0-5.4), Podgorica AOR 1.9 (1.4-2.6)). Half (47%) of Belgrade participants accepted rapid HIV testing, and there was complete concordance between rapid test results and subsequent confirmatory laboratory tests (sensitivity 100% (95%CI 59%-100%), specificity 100% (95%CI 98%-100%)). CONCLUSION: The combination of community recruitment, ACASI, rapid testing and a linked diagnostic accuracy study provide enhanced methods for conducting blood borne virus sero-prevalence studies in IDUs. The relatively high uptake of rapid testing suggests that introducing this method in community settings could increase the number of people tested in high risk populations. The high prevalence of HCV and relatively high prevalence of injecting risk behaviour indicate that further HIV transmission is likely in IDUs in both cities. Urgent scale up of HIV prevention interventions is needed

Multi-Scale Motility Amplitude Associated with Suicidal Thoughts in Major Depression

Major depression occurs at high prevalence in the general population, often starts in juvenile years, recurs over a lifetime, and is strongly associated with disability and suicide. Searches for biological markers in depression may have been hindered by assuming that depression is a unitary and relatively homogeneous disorder, mainly of mood, rather than addressing particular, clinically crucial features or diagnostic subtypes. Many studies have implicated quantitative alterations of motility rhythms in depressed human subjects. Since a candidate feature of great public-health significance is the unusually high risk of suicidal behavior in depressive disorders, we studied correlations between a measure (vulnerability index [VI]) derived from multi-scale characteristics of daily-motility rhythms in depressed subjects (n = 36) monitored with noninvasive, wrist-worn, electronic actigraphs and their self-assessed level of suicidal thinking operationalized as a wish to die. Patient-subjects had a stable clinical diagnosis of bipolar-I, bipolar-II, or unipolar major depression (n = 12 of each type). VI was associated inversely with suicidal thinking (r =  –0.61 with all subjects and r =  –0.73 with bipolar disorder subjects; both p<0.0001) and distinguished patients with bipolar versus unipolar major depression with a sensitivity of 91.7% and a specificity of 79.2%. VI may be a useful biomarker of characteristic features of major depression, contribute to differentiating bipolar and unipolar depression, and help to detect risk of suicide. An objective biomarker of suicide-risk could be advantageous when patients are unwilling or unable to share suicidal thinking with clinicians

Pregnancy and Infant Outcomes among HIV-Infected Women Taking Long-Term ART with and without Tenofovir in the DART Trial

Diana Gibb and colleagues investigate the effect of in utero tenofovir exposure by analyzing the pregnancy and infant outcomes of HIV-infected women enrolled in the DART trial

Factor structure of the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale in Japanese psychiatric outpatient and student populations

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) is a common screening instrument excluding somatic symptoms of depression and anxiety, but previous studies have reported inconsistencies of its factor structure. The construct validity of the Japanese version of the HADS has yet to be reported. To examine the factor structure of the HADS in a Japanese population is needed.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses were conducted in the combined data of 408 psychiatric outpatients and 1069 undergraduate students. The data pool was randomly split in half for a cross validation. An exploratory factor analysis was performed on one half of the data, and the fitness of the plausible model was examined in the other half of the data using a confirmatory factor analysis. Simultaneous multi-group analyses between the subgroups (outpatients vs. students, and men vs. women) were subsequently conducted.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A two-factor model where items 6 and 7 had dual loadings was supported. These factors were interpreted as reflecting anxiety and depression. Item 10 showed low contributions to both of the factors. Simultaneous multi-group analyses indicated a factor pattern stability across the subgroups.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The Japanese version of HADS indicated good factorial validity in our samples. However, ambiguous wording of item 7 should be clarified in future revisions.</p

Active learning and optimal climate policy

This paper develops a climate-economy model with uncertainty, irreversibility, and active learning. Whereas previous papers assume learning from one observation per period, or experiment with control variables to gain additional information, this paper considers active learning from investment in monitoring, specifically in improved observations of the global mean temperature. We find that the decision maker invests a significant amount of money in climate research, far more than the current level, in order to increase the rate of learning about climate change. This helps the decision maker make improved decisions. The level of uncertainty decreases more rapidly in the active learning model than in the passive learning model with only temperature observations. As the uncertainty about climate change is smaller, active learning reduces the optimal carbon tax. The greater the risk, the larger is the effect of learning. The method proposed here is applicable to any dynamic control problem where the quality of monitoring is a choice variable, for instance, the precision at which we observe GDP, unemployment, or the quality of education