Observing convective aggregation

Convective self-aggregation, the spontaneous organization of initially scattered convection into isolated convective clusters despite spatially homogeneous boundary conditions and forcing, was first recognized and studied in idealized numerical simulations. While there is a rich history of observational work on convective clustering and organization, there have been only a few studies that have analyzed observations to look specifically for processes related to self-aggregation in models. Here we review observational work in both of these categories and motivate the need for more of this work. We acknowledge that self-aggregation may appear to be far-removed from observed convective organization in terms of time scales, initial conditions, initiation processes, and mean state extremes, but we argue that these differences vary greatly across the diverse range of model simulations in the literature and that these comparisons are already offering important insights into real tropical phenomena. Some preliminary new findings are presented, including results showing that a self-aggregation simulation with square geometry has too broad a distribution of humidity and is too dry in the driest regions when compared with radiosonde records from Nauru, while an elongated channel simulation has realistic representations of atmospheric humidity and its variability. We discuss recent work increasing our understanding of how organized convection and climate change may interact, and how model discrepancies related to this question are prompting interest in observational comparisons. We also propose possible future directions for observational work related to convective aggregation, including novel satellite approaches and a ground-based observational network

Potential vorticity structure and propagation mechanism of Indian monsoon depressions

Indian monsoon depressions are synoptic-scale storms that form primarily over the Bay of Bengal and propagate westward over the subcontinent, producing a large fraction of India's total summer precipitation. We recently showed that, contrary to long-standing ideas, the westward propagation of Indian monsoon depressions is accomplished primarily by horizontal adiabatic advection of potential vorticity (PV), not by vortex stretching or diabatic PV generation that occurs in the region of quasi-geostrophic ascent southwest of the vortex center. This chapter extends that work by using several reanalysis products to examine case studies of Indian monsoon depressions. In all reanalyses examined, monsoon depressions have maximum PV in the middle troposphere, at higher altitudes than the level of maximum relative vorticity. The horizontal structure of mid-tropospheric PV suggests that the axial asymmetry of the vortex that produces the nonlinear westward advection may result at least partly from diabatic heating. Thus, although storm motion is produced primarily by horizontal adiabatic advection, diabatic heating can play an indirect role by shaping the PV field that produces this advection

Influence of cloud-radiation interaction on simulating tropical intraseasonal oscillation with an atmospheric general circulation model

The influence of cloud-radiation interaction in simulating the tropical intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) is examined using an aqua planet general circulation model (GCM). Two types of simulation are conducted: one with prescribed zonal mean radiation and the other with fully interactive clouds and radiation. In contrast to the fixed radiation case, where the ISO is simulated reasonably well, the cloud-radiation interaction significantly contaminates the eastward propagation of the ISO by producing small-scale disturbances moving westward with the easterly basic winds. The small-scale disturbances are persistently excited by a strong positive feedback through interaction between cumulus-anvil clouds and radiation. The longwave interaction is shown to play a bigger role in contaminating the ISO than the shortwave interaction does. The anvil clouds reduce the longwave cooling significantly in the lower troposphere while releasing latent heating in the upper troposphere. To moderate the strong cloud-radiation feedback, the large-scale condensation scheme in the GCM is modified by reducing the autoconversion timescale, needed for cloud condensates to grow up to rain drops. In addition, upper air ice cloud contents are reduced to change the cloud albedo. These modifications make a more realistic simulation of the ISO similar to the observed.close554

Improved Spread–Error Relationship and Probabilistic Prediction from the CFS-Based Grand Ensemble Prediction System

This study describes an attempt to overcome the underdispersive nature of single-model ensembles (SMEs). As an Indo–U.S. collaboration designed to improve the prediction capabilities of models over the Indian monsoon region, the Climate Forecast System (CFS) model framework, developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP-CFSv2), is selected. This article describes a multimodel ensemble prediction system, using a suite of different variants of the CFSv2 model to increase the spread without relying on very different codes or potentially inferior models. The SMEs are generated not only by perturbing the initial condition, but also by using different resolutions, parameters, and coupling configurations of the same model (CFS and its atmosphere component, the Global Forecast System). Each of these configurations was created to address the role of different physical mechanisms known to influence error growth on the 10–20-day time scale. Last, the multimodel consensus forecast is developed, which includes ensemble-based uncertainty estimates. Statistical skill of this CFS-based Grand Ensemble Prediction System (CGEPS) is better than the best participating SME configuration, because increased ensemble spread reduces overconfidence errors

Better spread-error relationship in a multimodel ensemble prediction system

This study describes an attempt to overcome the underdispersive nature of single-model ensembles (SMEs). As an Indo–U.S. collaboration designed to improve the prediction capabilities of models over the Indian monsoon region, the Climate Forecast System (CFS) model framework, developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP-CFSv2), is selected. This article describes a multimodel ensemble prediction system, using a suite of different variants of the CFSv2 model to increase the spread without relying on very different codes or potentially inferior models. The SMEs are generated not only by perturbing the initial condition, but also by using different resolutions, parameters, and coupling configurations of the same model (CFS and its atmosphere component, the Global Forecast System). Each of these configurations was created to address the role of different physical mechanisms known to influence error growth on the 10–20-day time scale. Last, the multimodel consensus forecast is developed, which includes ensemble-based uncertainty estimates. Statistical skill of this CFS-based Grand Ensemble Prediction System (CGEPS) is better than the best participating SME configuration, because increased ensemble spread reduces overconfidence errors

Global energetics and local physics as drivers of past, present and future monsoons

Global constraints on momentum and energy govern the variability of the rainfall belt in the intertropical convergence zone and the structure of the zonal mean tropical circulation. The continental-scale monsoon systems are also facets of a momentum- and energy-constrained global circulation, but their modern and palaeo variability deviates substantially from that of the intertropical convergence zone. The mechanisms underlying deviations from expectations based on the longitudinal mean budgets are neither fully understood nor simulated accurately. We argue that a framework grounded in global constraints on energy and momentum yet encompassing the complexities of monsoon dynamics is needed to identify the causes of the mismatch between theory, models and observations, and ultimately to improve regional climate projections. In a first step towards this goal, disparate regional processes must be distilled into gross measures of energy flow in and out of continents and between the surface and the tropopause, so that monsoon dynamics may be coherently diagnosed across modern and palaeo observations and across idealized and comprehensive simulations. Accounting for zonal asymmetries in the circulation, land/ocean differences in surface fluxes, and the character of convective systems, such a monsoon framework would integrate our understanding at all relevant scales: from the fine details of how moisture and energy are lifted in the updrafts of thunderclouds, up to the global circulations

Diurnal circulations and their multi-scale interaction leading to rainfall over the South China Sea upstream of the Philippines during intraseasonal monsoon westerly wind bursts

The morning diurnal precipitation maximum over the coastal sea upstream of the Philippines during intraseasonal westerly wind bursts is examined from observations and numerical model simulations. A well-defined case of precipitation and large-scale circulation over the coastal sea west of the Philippines during 17-27 June 2004 is selected as a representative case. The hypothesis is that the mesoscale diurnal circulation over the Philippines and a large-scale diurnal circulation that is induced by large-scale differential heating over Asian continent and the surrounding ocean interact to produce the offshore precipitation maximum during the morning. Three-hourly combined satellite microwave and infrared rainfall retrievals define the morning rainfall peak during this period, and then later the stratiform rain area extends toward the open sea. A control numerical simulation in which a grid-nudging four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) is applied to force the large-scale diurnal circulation represents reasonably well the morning rainfall maximum. An enhanced low-level convergence similar to observations is simulated due to the interaction of the local- and large-scale diurnal circulations. The essential role of the local-scale diurnal circulation is illustrated in a sensitivity test in which the solar zenith angle is fixed at 7 am to suppress this diurnal circulation. The implication for climate diagnosis or modeling of such upstream coastal sea precipitation maxima is that the diurnal variations of both the local- and the large-scale circulations must be taken into considerationclose6