Simulating Food Web Dynamics along a Gradient: Quantifying Human Influence

Realistically parameterized and dynamically simulated food-webs are useful tool to explore the importance of the functional diversity of ecosystems, and in particular relations between the dynamics of species and the whole community. We present a stochastic dynamical food web simulation for the Kelian River (Borneo). The food web was constructed for six different locations, arrayed along a gradient of increasing human perturbation (mostly resulting from gold mining activities) along the river. Along the river, the relative importance of grazers, filterers and shredders decreases with increasing disturbance downstream, while predators become more dominant in governing eco-dynamics. Human activity led to increased turbidity and sedimentation which adversely impacts primary productivity. Since the main difference between the study sites was not the composition of the food webs (structure is quite similar) but the strengths of interactions and the abundance of the trophic groups, a dynamical simulation approach seemed to be useful to better explain human influence. In the pristine river (study site 1), when comparing a structural version of our model with the dynamical model we found that structurally central groups such as omnivores and carnivores were not the most important ones dynamically. Instead, primary consumers such as invertebrate grazers and shredders generated a greater dynamical response. Based on the dynamically most important groups, bottom-up control is replaced by the predominant top-down control regime as distance downstream and human disturbance increased. An important finding, potentially explaining the poor structure to dynamics relationship, is that indirect effects are at least as important as direct ones during the simulations. We suggest that our approach and this simulation framework could serve systems-based conservation efforts. Quantitative indicators on the relative importance of trophic groups and the mechanistic modeling of eco-dynamics could greatly contribute to understanding various aspects of functional diversity

Lawson criterion for ignition exceeded in an inertial fusion experiment

For more than half a century, researchers around the world have been engaged in attempts to achieve fusion ignition as a proof of principle of various fusion concepts. Following the Lawson criterion, an ignited plasma is one where the fusion heating power is high enough to overcome all the physical processes that cool the fusion plasma, creating a positive thermodynamic feedback loop with rapidly increasing temperature. In inertially confined fusion, ignition is a state where the fusion plasma can begin "burn propagation" into surrounding cold fuel, enabling the possibility of high energy gain. While "scientific breakeven" (i.e., unity target gain) has not yet been achieved (here target gain is 0.72, 1.37 MJ of fusion for 1.92 MJ of laser energy), this Letter reports the first controlled fusion experiment, using laser indirect drive, on the National Ignition Facility to produce capsule gain (here 5.8) and reach ignition by nine different formulations of the Lawson criterion

Trophic cascades initiated by fungal plant endosymbionts impair reproductive performance of parasitoids in the second generation

Variation in plant quality can transmit up the food chain and may aVect herbivores and their antagonists in the same direction. Fungal endosymbionts of grasses change the resource quality by producing toxins. We used an aphid-parasitoid model system to explore how endophyte eVects cascade up the food chain and inXuence individual parasitoid performance. We show that the presence of an endophyte in the grass Lolium perenne has a much stronger negative impact on the performance of the parasitoid Aphidius ervi than on its aphid host Metopolophium festucae. Although the presence of endophytes did not inXuence the parasitism rate of endophyte-naïve parasitoids or their oVspring’s survival to adulthood, most parasitoids developing within aphids from endophyte-infected plants did not reproduce at all. This indicates a delayed but very strong eVect of endophytes on parasitoid performance, which should ultimately aVect plant performance negatively by releasing endophyte-tolerant herbivores from top-down limitations

Nappy pad urine samples for investigation and treatment of UTI in young children: the ‘DUTY’ prospective diagnostic cohort study

Background: The added diagnostic utility of nappy pad urine samples and the proportion that are contaminated is unknown. Aim: To develop a clinical prediction rule for the diagnosis of urinary tract infection (UTI) based on sampling using the nappy pad method. Design and setting: Acutely unwell children <5 years presenting to 233 UK primary care sites. Method: Logistic regression to identify independent associations of symptoms, signs, and urine dipstick test results with UTI; diagnostic utility quantified as area under the receiver operator curves (AUROC). Nappy pad rule characteristics, AUROC, and contamination, compared with findings from clean-catch samples. Results: Nappy pad samples were obtained from 3205 children (82% aged <2 years; 48% female), culture results were available for 2277 (71.0%) and 30 (1.3%) had a UTI on culture. Female sex, smelly urine, darker urine, and the absence of nappy rash were independently associated with a UTI, with an internally-validated, coefficient model AUROC of 0.81 (0.87 for clean-catch), which increased to 0.87 (0.90 for clean-catch) with the addition of dipstick results. GPs’ ‘working diagnosis’ had an AUROC 0.63 (95% confidence intervals [CI] = 0.53 to 0.72). A total of 12.2% of nappy pad and 1.8% of clean-catch samples were ‘frankly contaminated’ (risk ratio 6.66; 95% CI = 4.95 to 8.96; P<0.001). Conclusion: Nappy pad urine culture results, with features that can be reported by parents and dipstick tests, can be clinically useful, but are less accurate and more often contaminated compared with clean-catch urine culture