The Dynamics of International Trade Patterns

This paper introduces new dynamic measures for examining changes in international trade patterns. Using data for 20 OECD countries over the 1980-2000 period, we show that inter-industry trade changes contrary to countries' previous specialisation are frequently the dominant form of trade expansion. The econometric analysis indicates that the observed changes in trade patterns were explained by initial endowments of human-capital and industry-specific changes in labour productivity and labour costs. The results also suggest that trade liberalisation induced an increase in the previous specialisation of larger OECD economies in industries with increasing returns to scale.Dynamics of international specialisation, trade liberalisation, technology transfers.

Entry and Quality Choices in Child Care Markets

Many developing countries have adopted the market approach for expanding the supply of child care, but little is known about the economic behavior of independent providers. This paper draws on uniquely rich administrative data on child care centers and their inputs from São Paulo to examine the role of local household income in shaping the entry and quality choices of private suppliers. It documents three main facts: (1) entry rates are considerably higher in high-income districts; (2) the quality of provision as measured by teachers’ schooling, group size and equipment is highly heterogeneous across space and increases systematically with local household income; and (3) a considerable share of centers operates below recommended (but not regulated) quality standards, especially in low-income districts. These findings accord with a model in which heterogeneous providers optimally adjust the quality of care to the willingness to pay for quality of local consumers. Market-driven heterogeneity in the quality of provision across space is a key consideration for understanding the effect of regulations on the supply of child care.Child care markets, Entry, Product quality, Minimum quality standards

Exchange rates and wages in unionised labour markets

We investigate the impact of exchange rate movements on wage determination in unionised labour markets. Using a simple model of international oligopoly, we show that organised labour has a rational incentive to accept lower wages in the face of a currency appreciation. This proposition is examined empirically using a matched worker-firm dataset for Portugal. We find results consistent with the predictions of the model, though the impact varies considerably with both worker characteristics and the regional unemployment rate.Exchange rates, trade unions, wage bargaining, worker-firm data

Cultural Links, Firm Heterogeneity and the Intensive and Extensive Margins of International Trade

It is well known that cultural links between countries increase bilateral trade. In this paper we exploit Portuguese firm-level data on exports to 199 destinations to investigate the questions: How? Do cultural links increase the number of exporters, or the shipments per exporter? What is the role of firm heterogeneity? The results reveal that cultural links, measured by common language/colonial ties and emigrant communities, are significantly associated with a lower incidence of within-firm export zeros and with larger shipments per exporter. Furthermore, they show that the former of these relationships tends to be magnified by firm size, suggesting that firm heterogeneity is key in shaping the interplay between cultural links and the extensive margin of international trade.Colonial ties, migration, firm heterogeneity, intensive and extensive margins

Unions, Competition and International Trade in General Equilibrium

We develop a two-country, multi-sector model of oligopoly in which unionised and non-unionised sectors interact in general equilibrium. The model is used to study the impact of trade liberalisation, deunionisation and firm entry on wages in unionised and non-unionised sectors, and on welfare. We find that a shift from autarky to free trade increases non-union wages and welfare, whereas the effect on union wages is ambiguous. We also show that partial deunionisation leads to higher wages in both unionised and non-unionised sectors, but only increases welfare when the proportion of unionised sectors is sufficiently low. Finally, wages in non-unionised sectors necessarily increase with firm entry, while the response of union wages and welfare depends on the trade regime.Trade Unions, Product Market Competition, General Oligopolistic Equilibrium, Trade Liberalisation

Globalization, Product Differentiation and Wage Inequality

This paper develops a two-country, general equilibrium model of oligopoly in which the degree of horizontal product differentiation is endogenously determined by rms’ strategic investments in product innovation. Consumers seek variety and product innovation is more skill intensive than production. Stronger import competition increases innovation incentives, and thereby the relative demand for skill. An intraindustry trade expansion following trade liberalization can therefore increase wage inequality between skilled and unskilled workers. In addition, since product differentiation is resource consuming, freer trade entails a potential trade-off between production and variety. The import competition effect highlighted by the model, which plays a key role in determining the general equilibrium, is consistent with panel data on Chilean manufacturing plants.Trade liberalization, Product differentiation, Innovation,Wage inequality, General oligopolistic equilibrium

Managers and wage policies

We investigate the effects of individual top managers on wages and wage policies. A large longitudinal administrative dataset from Portugal allows us to match workers,firms and top managers, and follow the movements of the latter across different firms over time. We estimate the role of top manager fixed-effects in determining wages and wage policies, while also accounting for the effect of worker and firm heterogeneity. Our results reveal that top managers have a significant influence on wages, the returns to schooling and tenure, the gender wage gap, and the extent of rent sharing. Further-more, they point to the existence of managerial styles in the setting of wage policies. Finally, we relate worker compensation to observable managerial attributes, and find that returns to schooling tend to be higher in firms led by more educated top executives, while longer-tenured managers appear on average to engage in more rent sharing.Top managers, wage policies, linked worker-firm-manager data.

Globalization, product differentiation and wage inequality

This paper develops a two-country, general equilibrium model of oligopoly in which the degree of horizontal product differentiation is endogenously determined by firms' strategic investments in product innovation. Consumers seek variety and product innovation is more skill intensive than production. Greater import competition increases innovation incentives, and thereby the relative demand for skill. An intraindustry trade expansion following trade liberalization can therefore increase wage inequality between skilled and unskilled workers. In addition, since product differentiation is resource consuming, freer trade entails a potential trade-off between production and variety. The import competition effect highlighted by the model, which plays a key role in determining the general equilibrium, is supported by panel data on Chilean manufacturing plants.Trade liberalization; Product differentiation; Innovation; Wage Inequality; General Oligopolistic Equilibrium.

Exposure of belt and road economies to China trade shocks

This paper uses international trade data to assess the degree of exposure of Belt and Road economies to China trade shocks. It finds that the growth of China’s trade following its internal transformation and accession to the WTO significantly impacted the export performance of Belt and Road economies in the period 2000-2015. The increase in China’s imports significantly boosted the exports of these economies. However, this e↵ect was attenuated by increased competition from China in export markets. The e↵ects of China’s demand shocks were stronger in more upstream industries, while those of competition shocks were stronger in industries that produce goods that are closer to final use. The e↵ects of competition shocks were also relatively stronger in countries that are relatively poorer and geographically closer to China. Building on these findings, the paper documents the current degree of exposure of Belt and Road economies to China trade shocks.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Oligopoly, open shop unions and trade liberalisation

In an international oligopoly model, we investigate how trade liberalisation impacts on collective bargaining outcomes when workers are represented by open shop unions. We find that, with intermediate levels of union density, trade liberalisation may lead to higher negotiated wages even if no trade occurs in equilibrium. In addition, we show that union wages may be higher with free trade than in autarky.International oligopoly, bargaining, open shop unions, trade liberalisation