Barro's fertility equations: the robustness of the role of female education and income

Barro and Lee (1994) and Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1995) find that real per-capita GDP and both male and female education have important effects on fertility in their cross-country empirical studies. In order to assess the robustness of their results, their estimated models are subjected to specification and diagnostic testing, the effects on the model of using the improved Barro and Lee (1996) cross-country data on educational attainment of the population aged 15 and over are examined, and the different specifications used by Barro and Lee and by Barro and Sala-i-Martin compared. The results obtained suggest that their fertility equations do not perform well in terms of diagnostic testing, and are very sensitive to the use of different vintages of the educational attainment proxies and of the Summers-Heston cross-country income data. A robust explanation of fertility, to link with empirical growth equations, has, therefore, not yet been found; further work is required in this area

The Effects of Cardiac Specialty Hospitals on the Cost and Quality of Medical Care

The recent rise of specialty hospitals -- typically for-profit firms that are at least partially owned by physicians -- has led to substantial debate about their effects on the cost and quality of care. Advocates of specialty hospitals claim they improve quality and lower cost; critics contend they concentrate on providing profitable procedures and attracting relatively healthy patients, leaving (predominantly nonprofit) general hospitals with a less-remunerative, sicker patient population. We find support for both sides of this debate. Markets experiencing entry by a cardiac specialty hospital have lower spending for cardiac care without significantly worse clinical outcomes. In markets with a specialty hospital, however, specialty hospitals tend to attract healthier patients and provide higher levels of intensive procedures than general hospitals.

Testing stock market convergence: a non-linear factor approach

This paper applies the Phillips and Sul (Econometrica 75(6):1771–1855, 2007) method to test for convergence in stock returns to an extensive dataset including monthly stock price indices for five EU countries (Germany, France, the Netherlands, Ireland and the UK) as well as the US between 1973 and 2008. We carry out the analysis on both sectors and individual industries within sectors. As a first step, we use the Stock and Watson (J Am Stat Assoc 93(441):349–358, 1998) procedure to filter the data in order to extract the long-run component of the series; then, following Phillips and Sul (Econometrica 75(6):1771–1855, 2007), we estimate the relative transition parameters. In the case of sectoral indices we find convergence in the middle of the sample period, followed by divergence, and detect four (two large and two small) clusters. The analysis at a disaggregate, industry level again points to convergence in the middle of the sample, and subsequent divergence, but a much larger number of clusters is now found. Splitting the cross-section into two subgroups including euro area countries, the UK and the US respectively, provides evidence of a global convergence/divergence process not obviously influenced by EU policies

Military spending and economic growth in China: a regime-switching analysis

This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.This article investigates the impact of military spending changes on economic growth in China over the period 1953 to 2010. Using two-state Markov-switching specifications, the results suggest that the relationship between military spending changes and economic growth is state dependent. Specifically, the results show that military spending changes affect the economic growth negatively during a slower growth-higher variance state, while positively within a faster growth-lower variance one. It is also demonstrated that military spending changes contain information about the growth transition probabilities. As a policy tool, the results indicate that increases in military spending can be detrimental to growth during slower growth-higher growth volatility periods. © 2014 © 2014 The Author(s). Published by Taylor & Francis

Spatially resolved kinematics in the central 1 kpc of a compact star-forming galaxy at z=2.3 from ALMA CO observations

We present high spatial resolution (FWHM$\sim$0.14'') observations of the CO($8-7$) line in GDS-14876, a compact star-forming galaxy at $z=2.3$ with total stellar mass of $\log(M_{\star}/M_{\odot})=10.9$. The spatially resolved velocity map of the inner $r\lesssim1$~kpc reveals a continous velocity gradient consistent with the kinematics of a rotating disk with $v_{\rm rot}(r=1\rm kpc)=163\pm5$ km s$^{-1}$ and $v_{\rm rot}/\sigma\sim2.5$. The gas-to-stellar ratios estimated from CO($8-7$) and the dust continuum emission span a broad range, $f^{\rm CO}_{\rm gas}=M_{\rm gas}/M_{\star}=13-45\%$ and $f^{\rm cont}_{\rm gas}=50-67\%$, but are nonetheless consistent given the uncertainties in the conversion factors. The dynamical modeling yields a dynamical mass of$\log(M_{\rm dyn}/M_{\odot})=10.58^{+0.5}_{-0.2}$ which is lower, but still consistent with the baryonic mass, $\log$(M$_{\rm bar}$= M$_{\star}$ + M$^{\rm CO}_{\rm gas}$/M$_{\odot}$)$=11.0$, if the smallest CO-based gas fraction is assumed. Despite a low, overall gas fraction, the small physical extent of the dense, star-forming gas probed by CO($8-7$), $\sim3\times$ smaller than the stellar size, implies a strong concentration that increases the gas fraction up to $f^{\rm CO, 1\rm kpc}_{\rm gas}\sim 85\%$ in the central 1 kpc. Such a gas-rich center, coupled with a high star-formation rate, SFR$\sim$ 500 M$_{\odot}$ yr$^{-1}$, suggests that GDS-14876 is quickly assembling a dense stellar component (bulge) in a strong nuclear starburst. Assuming its gas reservoir is depleted without replenishment, GDS-14876 will quickly ($t_{\rm depl}\sim27$ Myr) become a compact quiescent galaxy that could retain some fraction of the observed rotational support.Comment: Accepted for Publication in ApJL. Kinematic maps are shown in Figures 2 and

Testing Diagnostics of Nuclear Activity and Star Formation in Galaxies at z>1

We present some of the first science data with the new Keck/MOSFIRE instrument to test the effectiveness of different AGN/SF diagnostics at z~1.5. MOSFIRE spectra were obtained in three H-band multi-slit masks in the GOODS-S field, resulting in two hour exposures of 36 emission-line galaxies. We compare X-ray data with the traditional emission-line ratio diagnostics and the alternative mass-excitation and color-excitation diagrams, combining new MOSFIRE infrared data with previous HST/WFC3 infrared spectra (from the 3D-HST survey) and multiwavelength photometry. We demonstrate that a high [OIII]/Hb ratio is insufficient as an AGN indicator at z>1. For the four X-ray detected galaxies, the classic diagnostics ([OIII]/Hb vs. [NII]/Ha and [SII]/Ha) remain consistent with X-ray AGN/SF classification. The X-ray data also suggest that "composite" galaxies (with intermediate AGN/SF classification) host bona-fide AGNs. Nearly 2/3 of the z~1.5 emission-line galaxies have nuclear activity detected by either X-rays or the classic diagnostics. Compared to the X-ray and line ratio classifications, the mass-excitation method remains effective at z>1, but we show that the color-excitation method requires a new calibration to successfully identify AGNs at these redshifts.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures. Accepted to ApJ Letter

Inequality, Fiscal Capacity and the Political Regime: Lessons from the Post-Communist Transition

Using panel data for twenty-seven post-communist economies between 1987-2003, we examine the nexus of relationships between inequality, fiscal capacity (defined as the ability to raise taxes efficiently) and the political regime. Investigating the impact of political reform we find that full political freedom is associated with lower levels of income inequality. Under more oligarchic (authoritarian) regimes, the level of inequality is conditioned by the state’s fiscal capacity. Specifically, oligarchic regimes with more developed fiscal systems are able to defend the prevailing vested interests at a lower cost in terms of social injustice. This empirical finding is consistent with the model developed by Acemoglu (2006). We also find that transition countries undertaking early macroeconomic stabilisation now enjoy lower levels of inequality; we confirm that education fosters equality and the suggestion of Commander et al (1999) that larger countries are prone to higher levels of inequality.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/57211/1/wp831 .pd