A Case Where Barro Expectations Are Not Rational

This note generalizes Feldstein’s (1976) criticism of Barro’s(1974) analysis for the case that the interest rate exceeds the growth rate. This is done by considering an economy in steady state where all agents hold “Barro expectations”: they believe that government debt must necessarily be repaid and therefore leave the present value of their income streams unchanged. In this scenario, a change in the mode of taxation affects the present value of disposable income in the private sector. This violates their Barro expectations

Barro's fertility equations: the robustness of the role of female education and income

Barro and Lee (1994) and Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1995) find that real per-capita GDP and both male and female education have important effects on fertility in their cross-country empirical studies. In order to assess the robustness of their results, their estimated models are subjected to specification and diagnostic testing, the effects on the model of using the improved Barro and Lee (1996) cross-country data on educational attainment of the population aged 15 and over are examined, and the different specifications used by Barro and Lee and by Barro and Sala-i-Martin compared. The results obtained suggest that their fertility equations do not perform well in terms of diagnostic testing, and are very sensitive to the use of different vintages of the educational attainment proxies and of the Summers-Heston cross-country income data. A robust explanation of fertility, to link with empirical growth equations, has, therefore, not yet been found; further work is required in this area

HMO Penetration, Ownership Status, and the Rise of Hospital Advertising

We examine the recent increase in hospital advertising expenditures. We first illustrate that the rise in hospital advertising has not been universal. Large, not-for-profit, teaching hospitals have, by far, experienced the largest increase in spending. Adjusting for size, for-profit hospitals over this period have actually decreased their marketing expenses. This increase in advertising spending is best explained by managed care penetration. There is a small and marginally significant relationship between increases in for-profit presence in hospital markets and an increase in advertising spending by the not-for-profit hospitals in those markets.

Pay, Performance, and Turnover of Bank CEOs

A new data set covers chief executive officers (CEOs) of large commercial banks over the period 1982-87. For newly hired CEOs, the elasticity of pay with respect to assets is about one-third. For continuing CEOs, the change in compensation depends on performance, as measured by stock and accounting returns. The sensitivity of pay to performance diminishes with experience, but the returns are not filtered for peer-group returns. Logit regressions relate the probability of CEO departure to age and performance, as measured by stock returns filtered for peer-group returns; CEO experience does not influence this relationship.Economic

Pay, Performance, and Turnover of Bank CEOs

We studied the relation of CEO pay and turnover to performance and characteristics of companies in a new data set that covers large commercial banks over the period 1982-87. For newly hired CEOs, the elasticity of pay with respect to assets is about one-third. As experience increases, the correlation between compensation and assets diminishes for about four years and then rises back to its initial value. We interpret these findings along the lines of Rosen's matching model, allowing for adjustments of compensation and bank assets and for possible dismissal of the CEO. For continuing CEOs, the change in compensation depends on performance as measured by stock and accounting returns. The sensitivity of pay to performance diminishes with experience, and there is no indication that stock or accounting returns are filtered for aggregate returns. Logit regressions relate the probability of CEO departure to age and performance. The relevant measure of performance in this context is stock returns filtered for average returns of banks in the same year and geographical region.

The Effects of Cardiac Specialty Hospitals on the Cost and Quality of Medical Care

The recent rise of specialty hospitals -- typically for-profit firms that are at least partially owned by physicians -- has led to substantial debate about their effects on the cost and quality of care. Advocates of specialty hospitals claim they improve quality and lower cost; critics contend they concentrate on providing profitable procedures and attracting relatively healthy patients, leaving (predominantly nonprofit) general hospitals with a less-remunerative, sicker patient population. We find support for both sides of this debate. Markets experiencing entry by a cardiac specialty hospital have lower spending for cardiac care without significantly worse clinical outcomes. In markets with a specialty hospital, however, specialty hospitals tend to attract healthier patients and provide higher levels of intensive procedures than general hospitals.

Change-Point Analysis of Asset Price Bubbles with Power-Law Hazard Function

We present a methodology to identify change-points in financial markets where the governing regime shifts from a constant rate-of-return, i.e. normal growth, to superexponential growth described by a power-law hazard rate. The latter regime corresponds, in our view, to financial bubbles driven by herding behaviour of market participants. Assuming that the time series of log-price returns of a financial index can be modelled by arithmetic Brownian motion, with an additional jump process with power-law hazard function to approximate the superexponential growth, we derive a threshold value of the hazard-function control parameter, allowing us to decide in which regime the market is more likely to be at any given time. An analysis of the Standard \& Poors 500 index over the last 60 years provides evidence that the methodology has merit in identifying when a period of herding behaviour begins, and, perhaps more importantly, when it ends

Testing stock market convergence: a non-linear factor approach

This paper applies the Phillips and Sul (Econometrica 75(6):1771–1855, 2007) method to test for convergence in stock returns to an extensive dataset including monthly stock price indices for five EU countries (Germany, France, the Netherlands, Ireland and the UK) as well as the US between 1973 and 2008. We carry out the analysis on both sectors and individual industries within sectors. As a first step, we use the Stock and Watson (J Am Stat Assoc 93(441):349–358, 1998) procedure to filter the data in order to extract the long-run component of the series; then, following Phillips and Sul (Econometrica 75(6):1771–1855, 2007), we estimate the relative transition parameters. In the case of sectoral indices we find convergence in the middle of the sample period, followed by divergence, and detect four (two large and two small) clusters. The analysis at a disaggregate, industry level again points to convergence in the middle of the sample, and subsequent divergence, but a much larger number of clusters is now found. Splitting the cross-section into two subgroups including euro area countries, the UK and the US respectively, provides evidence of a global convergence/divergence process not obviously influenced by EU policies