Development, Transition, and Crisis in the International System, 1870-2009

Globalization expands markets and improves efficiency by increasing competition, which in turn fosters economic growth and development, but it also increases the risk of economic volatility and crisis. In this dissertation, I use complex systems theory, network analysis, and recent development in post-Keynesian economics to devise a systemic theory of financial crisis that links the structure and pattern of financial and trade interdependencies to the prevalence and virulence of financial crises. In Chapter 1, I outline the core theory, and I test it using network statistics, including a new measure of network centralization I develop based on the Opsahl et al (2010) measure of centrality. I employ a new type of network model, called the Temporal Network Autoregressive Model, that allows me to model country level characteristics as a function of system structure and to properly account for system-level interdependencies. My empirical findings from this analysis are several. First, I show that the prevalence of financial crisis increases as globalization results in a higher degree of connectivity and a less centralized distribution of economic activity between countries; Highly centralized systems reduce the likelihood that a country experiences a financial crisis. The scale of contagion, however, has decreased due to a higher level of economic hegemony on the part of the US in the post-WWII period. Second, countries which are more integrated into trade and capital markets are more likely to experience a financial crisis. Third, contagion from a financial crisis increases if it originates in the most central country. Fourth, the more a country trades with the hegemon, the more likely they are to experience contagion from a crisis originating there. Fifth, contagion originating from outside the hegemon is less likely to spread to countries that trade more with the hegemon. Finally, contagion that results from a crisis that originated outside of the most central country is more severe in non-hegemonic systems. In Chapter 2, I elaborate and test an important implication of the theory I present in Chapter 1 using data from the 19th and early 20th centuries. In a globalized and hegemonically organized international economy, the economic fundamentals and policy choices of the hegemon often have spillover effects for peripheral economies. This is a well recognized dynamic of the contemporary political economy, but it was true during the first age of globalization as well. Motivated by literature examining the impact of the US macroeconomic conditions on other economies throughout the international system, applies the systemic theory of financial crisis from Chapter 1 to the long 19th century, when British hegemony reigned. I argue that a hierarchical distribution of economic activity in the international system during the 19th century meant that the financial cycle of Great Britain infuenced the financial conditions in peripheral countries, ultimately helping to cause financial crisis. Evidence from financial crises which occurred in the long 19th century supports this theory. In Chapter 3, I test the implication of my systemic theory of financial crisis during the contemporary period of globalization and American hegemony. Numerous scholars have studied the effects of the US macro-economy on the economies of peripheral countries. For example, they have examined the consequences of the US Federal Reserve discount rate changes for investment in developing countries. I argue the hierarchical distribution of economic activity in the contemporary international system also means that the financial cycle of the United States infuences the financial conditions in peripheral countries that lead to financial crisis. Cross-sectional time series evidence from 1970-2011 using both quarterly and annual data supports this theory.Doctor of Philosoph

IMF lending and neoliberal policies: realizing joint gains

Traditional IR theories of institutions focus on their ability to generate joint gains. However, in the literature on IMF lending, an empirically supported theory of joint gains is, as of yet, unidentified. This paper synthesizes functionalist, structuralist, and public-choice theories of IMF lending and proposes that the joint gains exist on different levels for creditor and borrower countries.Master of Art

UUnderstanding Program Engagement and Attrition in Child Abuse Prevention

Engaging and retaining families is a common challenge when serving families at high risk. McCurdy and Daro’s (2001) Integrated Theory of Parental Involvement (ITPI) proposes factors that impact engagement and retention in services. While several studies have found varying family demographic and risk factors to be associated with family engagement in home-based services, (withheld citation for purpose of review) identified program and provider characteristics that predicted engagement and retention (withheld citation for purpose of review). Specifically, SafeCare (SC) had greater enrollment (4 times) and retention (8.5 times) rates than services as usual (SAU), likely due to SC’s skill-based approach targeting desired topics. As a follow-up to this quantitative study, we conducted separate focus groups with parents who engaged and who failed to engage in SC (N= 16) and SAU (N=18). Provider characteristics (e.g., caring, experienced with children, nonjudgmental) was the strongest themes for engagement across groups. Program and provider flexibility and providers’ persistent support for parents despite life chaos facilitated retention. Results suggest that provider characteristics and program approach are key in engagement of families in home-based services. These results suggest expansion of the ITPI to address social context. Results suggestfocusing on specific provider characteristics and program approach for work force and program development to increase program engagement and decrease attrition

Leading an Interprofessional Geriatric Clinical Skills Fair: A Train the Trainer Seminar

Objectives • Practice teaching skills related to interprofessional education (IPE) and geriatric competencies • Formulate an Action Plan and prepare to introduce an Interprofessional Geriatric Clinical Skills Fair at their own institutions • Recognize essential elements of a measurement tool that evaluates the effectiveness of an Interprofessional Geriatric Clinical Skills Fai

Risk factors for unintentional poisoning in children aged 1–3 years in NSW Australia: a case–control study

BACKGROUND: Unintentional poisoning in young children is an important public health issue. Age pattern studies have demonstrated that children aged 1–3 years have the highest levels of poisoning risk among children aged 0–4 years, yet little research has been conducted regarding risk factors specific to this three-year age group and the methodologies employed varied greatly. The purpose of the current study is to investigate a broad range of potential risk factors for unintentional poisoning in children aged 1–3 years using appropriate methodologies. METHODS: Four groups of children, one case group (children who had experienced a poisoning event) and three control groups (children who had been ‘injured’, ‘sick’ or who were ‘healthy’), and their mothers (mother-child dyads) were enrolled into a case–control study. All mother-child dyads participated in a 1.5-hour child developmental screening and observation, with mothers responding to a series of questionnaires at home. Data were analysed as three case–control pairs with multivariate analyses used to control for age and sex differences between child cases and controls. RESULTS: Five risk factors were included in the final multivariate models for one or more case–control pairs. All three models found that children whose mothers used more positive control in their interactions during a structured task had higher odds of poisoning. Two models showed that maternal psychiatric distress increased poisoning risk (poisoning-injury and poisoning-healthy). Individual models identified the following variables as risk factors: less proximal maternal supervision during risk taking activities (poisoning-injury), medicinal substances stored in more accessible locations in bathrooms (poisoning-sick) and lower total parenting stress (poisoning-healthy). CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this study indicate that the nature of the caregiver-child relationship and caregiver attributes play an important role in influencing poisoning risk. Further research is warranted to explore the link between caregiver-child relationships and unintentional poisoning risk. Caregiver education should focus on the benefits of close interaction with their child as a prevention measure

Psychological and behavioural factors associated with sexual risk behaviour among Slovak students

Background: Knowledge about the prevalence of sexual risk behaviour (SRB) in adolescence is needed to prevent unwanted health consequences. Studies on SRB among adolescents in Central Europe are rare and mostly rely on a single indicator for SRB. This study aims to assess the association of behavioural and psychological factors with three types of SRB in adolescents in Central Europe. Methods: We obtained data on behavioural factors (having been drunk during previous month, smoking during previous week, early sexual initiation), psychological factors (self-esteem, wellbeing, extroversion, neuroticism, religiousness), and SRB (intercourse under risky conditions, multiple sexual partners, and inconsistent condom use) in 832 Slovak university students (response 94.3%). Results: Among those with sexual experience (62%), inconsistent condom use was the most prevalent risk behaviour (81% in females, 72% in males). With the exception of having been drunk in males, no factor was associated with inconsistent condom use. Regarding the other types of SRB, early sexual initiation was most strongly associated. In addition, other, mostly behavioural, factors were associated, in particular having been drunk. Conclusion: Results suggest that behavioural factors are more closely related to SRB than psychological factors. Associations differ by type of SRB and gender but offer few clues to target risk groups for inconsistent condom use. Results show a high need for health-promotion programmes in early adolescence that target SRB in conjunction with other health risk behaviours such as alcohol abuse

Evaluation of an Interprofessional Geriatric Clinical Skills Fair

Objectives •Describe the utilization of an interprofessional geriatric clinical skills fair to impart knowledge and skills pertaining to both core geriatric and IPE competencies. •Prepare to introduce an Interprofessional Geriatric Clinical Skills Fair at one’s own institution •Recognize essential elements of a measurement tool that evaluates the effectiveness of an Interprofessional Geriatric Clinical Skills Fai

The long-term prediction of return to work following serious accidental injuries: A follow up study

Background Considerable indirect costs are incurred by time taken off work following accidental injuries. The aim of this study was to predict return to work following serious accidental injuries. Method 121 severely injured patients were included in the study. Complete follow-up data were available for 85 patients. Two weeks post trauma (T1), patients rated their appraisal of the injury severity and their ability to cope with the injury and its job-related consequences. Time off work was assessed at one (T2) and three years (T3) post accident. The main outcome was the number of days of sick leave taken due to the accidental injury. Results The patients' appraisals a) of the injury severity and b) of their coping abilities regarding the accidental injury and its job-related consequences were significant predictors of the number of sick-leave days taken. Injury severity (ISS), type of accident, age and gender did not contribute significantly to the prediction. Conclusions Return to work in the long term is best predicted by the patients' own appraisal of both their injury severity and the ability to cope with the accidental injury

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

African linguistics on the prairie: Selected papers from the 45th Annual Conference on African Linguistics

African Linguistics on the Prairie features select revised peer-reviewed papers from the 45th Annual Conference on African Linguistics, held at the University of Kansas. The articles in this volume reflect the enormous diversity of African languages, as they focus on languages from all of the major African language phyla.  The articles here also reflect the many different research perspectives that frame the work of linguists in the Association for Contemporary African Linguistics. The diversity of views presented in this volume are thus indicative of the vitality of current African linguistics research. The work presented in this volume represents both descriptive and theoretical methodologies and covers fields ranging from phonetics, phonology, morphology, typology, syntax, and semantics to sociolinguistics, discourse analysis, language acquisition, computational linguistics and beyond.  This broad scope and the quality of the articles contained within holds out the promise of continued advancement in linguistic research on African languages