Towards an improved seismic risk scenario for Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic

A risk scenario for Bishkek, capital of the Kyrgyz Republic, is evaluated by considering a magnitude 7.5 earthquake occurring over the Issyk-Ata fault.The intensity values predicted through the application of an attenuation relationship and a recently compiled vulnerability composition model are used as inputs for seismic risk assessment, carried out using the CREST (Cedim Risk Estimation Tool) code. Although the results of this study show a reduction by as much as a factor of two with respect to the results of earlier studies, the risk scenario evaluated in this paper confirms the large number of expected injuries and fatalities in Bishkek, as well as the severe level of building damage. Furthermore, the intensity map has also been evaluated by performing stochastic simulations. The spectral levels of the ground shaking are converted into intensity values by applying a previously derived conversion technique. The local site effects are empirically estimated considering the spectral ratios between the earthquakes recorded by a temporary network deployed in Bishkek and the recordings at two reference sites. Although the intensities computed via stochastic simulations are lower than those estimated with the attenuation relationship, the simulations showed that site effects, which can contribute to intensity increments as large as 2 units in the north part of the town, are playing an important role in altering the risk estimates for different parts of the town

Соотношение напряженного состояния земной коры, сейсмичности и оползневой активности (на примере Ферганской впадины, Тянь‐Шань)

The impacts of seismicity on the landslide activity in Kyrgyzstan have been in the focus of our study since 2010 [Kalmetyeva et al., 2010]. As the study progressed [Kalmetyeva, Moldobekov, 2012, 2013; Kalmetyeva et al., 2013, 2014], the initial problem statement has been revised as follows: do earthquake influence the occurrence of land‐ slides, and, if so, what is the mechanism of this influence. This paper presents the results of detailed analysis of the distribution of earthquakes and landslides in space and time in correlation with focal mechanisms (azimuth and plunge of the principal compression stress axis) of earthquakes occurred in the Fergana basin and its mountainous frame. These are grounds to conclude that the landslide activity is mainly influenced by the response of the internal structure of the upper crust to local stresses. The mechanism of influence of strong earthquakes on the landslide activity is redistribution of local stresses, which results from partial release of regional stresses due to rupturing in the source zones of strong earthquakes. Using this concept of the landslide activity, a methodology of landslide‐hazard mapping is the goal of our future studies aimed at the following: (1) zoning of the study area with respect to the features of the internal structure of the upper crust, (2) geological, geophysical and seismological studies of the state of stresses in the study area, (3) instrumental monitoring of landslides movements in the zones that differ in the structure of the upper crust, and (4) analysis of preparation and consequences of past strong earthquakes that took place in the study area in comparison with the landslide activity.Наши исследования были начаты в 2010 году [Kalmetyeva et al., 2010] с целью изучения влияния сейсмичности на оползневую активность в Кыргызстане. Однако в процессе исследований [Kalmetyeva, Moldobekov, 2012, 2013; Kalmetyeva et al., 2013, 2014] формулировка поставленной изначально задачи несколько изменилась, а именно: влияют ли землетрясения на возникновение оползней и, если да, то каков механизм этого воздействия. Настоящее сообщение является завершающим в решении поставленной задачи. Приводятся результаты более детального рассмотрения пространственно‐временного распределения оползней и землетрясений в сопоставлении с данными о механизмах очагов (азимут и угол погружения главной оси напряжения сжатия Р) этих землетрясений для территории Ферганской впадины и ее горного обрамления. Проведенный анализ позволяет сделать предположение, что решающее значение в оползневой активности имеет реакция внутренней структуры земной коры на локальные напряжения. Механизм воздействия сильных землетрясений на активизацию оползней состоит в перераспределении локальных напряжений, которое происходит в результате высвобождения некоторой части региональных напряжений, связанных с образованием разрыва в очаге сильного землетрясения. Такое представление об оползневой активности показывает, что основные направления исследований по разработке методики составления карт оползневой опасности должны состоять в следующем: районирование территории по внутренней структуре верхних частей земной коры (1), установка пунктов инструментальных наблюдений за движением оползней на участках территории с различающейся структурой верхних частей земной коры (2), изучение напряженного состояния территории методами геологии, геофизики, сейсмологии (3), анализ подготовки и последствий прошлых сильных землетрясений в сопоставлении с оползневой активностью (4)

Site effect assessment in Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan) using earthquake and noise recording data

Kyrgyzstan, which is located in the collision zone between the Eurasian and Indo-Australian lithosphere plates, is prone to large earthquakes as shown by its historical seismicity. Hence, an increase in the knowledge and awareness by local authorities and decision makers of the possible consequence of a large earthquake, based on improved seismic hazard assessments and realistic earthquake risk scenarios, is mandatory to mitigate the effects of an earthquake. To this regard, the Central Asia Cross-Border Natural Disaster Prevention (CASCADE) project aims to install a cross- border seismological and strong motion network in Central Asia and to support microzonation activities for the capitals of Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. During the first phase of the project, a temporary seismological network of 19 stations was installed in the city of Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan. Moreover, single-station noise recordings were collected at nearly 200 sites. In this study, the site amplifications occurring in Bishkek are assessed by analyzing 56 earthquakes extracted from the data streams continuously acquired by the network, as well as from the single-station noise measurements. A broadband amplification (starting at ∼0:1 and 0.2 Hz), is shown by the standard spectral ratio (SSR) results of the stations located within the basin. The reliability of the observed low-frequency amplification was validated through a time–frequency analysis of denoised seismograms. Discrepancies between horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio and SSR results are due to the large amplification of the vertical component of ground motion, probably due to the effect of converted waves. The single-station noise results, once their reliability was assessed by their comparison with the earthquake data, have been used to produce the first fundamental resonance frequency map for Bishkek, whose spatial variation shows a good agreement with the presence of an impedance contrast within the Tertiary sedimentary cover.Published3068-30824.1. Metodologie sismologiche per l'ingegneria sismicaJCR Journalope

Site effect assessment in Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan) using earthquake and noise recording data

Kyrgyzstan, which is located in the collision zone between the Eurasian and Indo-Australian lithosphere plates, is prone to large earthquakes as shown by its historical seismicity. Hence, an increase in the knowledge and awareness by local authorities and decision makers of the possible consequence of a large earthquake, based on improved seismic hazard assessments and realistic earthquake risk scenarios, is mandatory to mitigate the effects of an earthquake. To this regard, the Central Asia Cross-Border Natural Disaster Prevention (CASCADE) project aims to install a cross- border seismological and strong motion network in Central Asia and to support microzonation activities for the capitals of Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. During the first phase of the project, a temporary seismological network of 19 stations was installed in the city of Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan. Moreover, single-station noise recordings were collected at nearly 200 sites. In this study, the site amplifications occurring in Bishkek are assessed by analyzing 56 earthquakes extracted from the data streams continuously acquired by the network, as well as from the single-station noise measurements. A broadband amplification (starting at ∼0:1 and 0.2 Hz), is shown by the standard spectral ratio (SSR) results of the stations located within the basin. The reliability of the observed low-frequency amplification was validated through a time–frequency analysis of denoised seismograms. Discrepancies between horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio and SSR results are due to the large amplification of the vertical component of ground motion, probably due to the effect of converted waves. The single-station noise results, once their reliability was assessed by their comparison with the earthquake data, have been used to produce the first fundamental resonance frequency map for Bishkek, whose spatial variation shows a good agreement with the presence of an impedance contrast within the Tertiary sedimentary cover

Images of crustal and mantle structure across the northern margin of the Tibet-Pamir plateau

Abstract HKT-ISTP 2013 A

Re-establishing glacier monitoring in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, Central Asia

Glacier mass loss is among the clearest indicators of atmospheric warming. The observation of these changes is one of the major objectives of the international climate monitoring strategy developed by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). Long-term glacier mass balance measurements are furthermore the basis for calibrating and validating models simulating future runoff of glacierised catchments. This is essential for Central Asia, which is one of the driest continental regions of the Northern Hemisphere. In the highly populated regions, water shortage due to decreased glacierisation potentially leads to pronounced political instability, drastic ecological changes and endangered food security. As a consequence of the collapse of the former Soviet Union, however, many valuable glacier monitoring sites in the Tien Shan and Pamir Mountains were abandoned. In recent years, multinational actors have re-established a set of important in situ measuring sites to continue the invaluable long-term data series. This paper introduces the applied monitoring strategy for selected glaciers in the Kyrgyz and Uzbek Tien Shan and Pamir, highlights the existing and the new measurements on these glaciers, and presents an example for how the old and new data can be combined to establish multi-decadal mass balance time series. This is crucial for understanding the impact of climate change on glaciers in this region

Correlation of the state of crustal stresses, seismicity and landslide activity (Fergana basin, Tien Shan)

The impacts of seismicity on the landslide activity in Kyrgyzstan have been in the focus of our study since 2010 [Kalmetyeva et al., 2010]. As the study progressed [Kalmetyeva, Moldobekov, 2012, 2013; Kalmetyeva et al., 2013, 2014], the initial problem statement has been revised as follows: do earthquake influence the occurrence of land‐ slides, and, if so, what is the mechanism of this influence. This paper presents the results of detailed analysis of the distribution of earthquakes and landslides in space and time in correlation with focal mechanisms (azimuth and plunge of the principal compression stress axis) of earthquakes occurred in the Fergana basin and its mountainous frame. These are grounds to conclude that the landslide activity is mainly influenced by the response of the internal structure of the upper crust to local stresses. The mechanism of influence of strong earthquakes on the landslide activity is redistribution of local stresses, which results from partial release of regional stresses due to rupturing in the source zones of strong earthquakes. Using this concept of the landslide activity, a methodology of landslide‐hazard mapping is the goal of our future studies aimed at the following: (1) zoning of the study area with respect to the features of the internal structure of the upper crust, (2) geological, geophysical and seismological studies of the state of stresses in the study area, (3) instrumental monitoring of landslides movements in the zones that differ in the structure of the upper crust, and (4) analysis of preparation and consequences of past strong earthquakes that took place in the study area in comparison with the landslide activity

Crustal and uppermost mantle velocity structure along a profile across the Pamir and southern Tien Shan as derived from project TIPAGE wide-angle seismic data

Utilizing seismic refraction/wide-angle reflection data from 11 approximately in-line earthquakes, 2-D P- and S-velocity models and a Poisson's ratio model of the crust and uppermost mantle beneath the southern Tien Shan and the Pamir have been derived along the 400-km long main profile of the TIPAGE (TIen shan-PAmir GEodynamic program) project. These models show that the crustal thickness varies from about 65.5 km close to the southern end of the profile beneath the South Pamir through about 73.6 km under Lake Karakul in the North Pamir, to about 57.7 km, 50 km south of the northern end of the profile in the southern Tien Shan. Average crustal P velocities are low with respect to the global average, varying from 6.26 to 6.30 km s -1. The average crustal S velocity varies from 3.54 to 3.70 km s -1 along the profile and thus average crustal Poisson's ratio (σ) varies from 0.23 beneath the central Pamir in the south central part of the profile to 0.265 towards the northern end of the profile beneath the southern Tien Shan. The main layer of the upper crust extending from about 2 km below the Earth's surface to 27 km depth below sea level (b.s.l.) has average P velocities of about 6.05-6.1 km s -1, except beneath the south central part of the profile where they decrease to around 5.95 km s -1. This is in contrast to the S velocities which range from 3.4 to 3.6 km s -1 and exhibit the highest values of 3.55-3.6 km s -1 where the P velocity is lowest. Thus, σ for the main layer of the upper crust is 0.26 beneath the profile except beneath the south central part of the profile where it decreases to 0.22. The low value of 0.22 for σ under the central Pamir, the along-strike equivalent of the Qiangtang terrane in Tibet, is similar to that within the corresponding layer beneath the northern Lhasa and southern Qiangtang terranes in central Tibet and is indicative of felsic rocks rich in quartz in the α state. The lower crust below 27 km b.s.l. has P velocities ranging from 6.1 km s -1 at the top to 7.1 km s -1 at the base. Further, σ for this layer is 0.27-0.28 towards the northern end of the profile but is low at about 0.24 beneath the central and southern parts of the profile, which is similar to the situation found in the northeast Tibetan plateau. The low values can be explained by felsic schists and gneisses in the upper part of the lower crust transitioning to granulite-facies and possibly also eclogite-facies metapelites in the lower part. Within the uppermost mantle, the average P velocity is about 8.10-8.15 km s -1 and σ is about 0.26. Assuming an isotropic situation, then a relatively cool (700-800°C) uppermost mantle beneath the profile is indicated. This would in turn indicate an intact mantle lid beneath the profile. An upper mantle reflector dipping from 104 km b.s.l., 120 km from the southern end of the profile to 86 km b.s.l., 155 km from the northern end of the profile has also been identified. The preferred model presented here for the crustal and lithospheric mantle structure beneath the Pamir calls for nearly horizontal underthrusting of relatively cool Indian mantle lithosphere, the leading edge of which is outlined by the Pamir seismic zone. This cool Indian mantle lithosphere is overlain by significantly shortening, warm Asian crust. The Moho trough that is a feature seen beneath some other orogenic belts, for example the Alps and the Urals, beneath the northern Pamir may mark the southern tip of the actively underthrusting Tien Shan crust along the Main Pamir thrust