The Performance of Multi-Factor Term Structure Models for Pricing and Hedging Caps and Swaptions

In this paper we empirically compare different term structure models when it comes to the pricing and hedging of caps and swaptions.We analyze the influence of the number of factors on the pricing and hedging results, and investigate which type of data -interest rate data or derivative price data- should be used to estimate the model parameters to obtain the best pricing and hedging results. We use data on interest rates, and cap and swaption prices from 1995 to 1999.We find that models with two or three factors imply better out-of-sample predictions of cap and swaption prices than one-factor models.Also, estimation on the basis of derivative prices leads to more accurate out-of-sample prediction of cap and swaption prices than estimation on the basis of interest rate data.The empirical results on the hedging of caps and swaptions show that, if the number of hedge instruments is equal to the number of factors, the multi-factor models outperform one-factor models in hedging caps and swaptions. However, if one uses a large set of hedge instruments, one-factor models perform as well as multi-factor models.term structure of interest rates;option pricing;hedging;derivatives

Common Factors in International Bond Returns

In this paper we estimate and interpret the factors that jointly determine bond returns of different maturities in the US, Germany and Japan.We analyze both currency-hedged and unhedged bond returns.For currency-hedged bond returns, we find that five factors explain 96.5% of the variation of bond returns.These factors can be associated with changes in the level and steepness of the term structures in (some of) these countries.In particular, it turns out that changes in the level of the term structures are correlated across countries, while changes in the steepness of the term structures are country-specific.The five-factor model also provides a good fit of the expected returns of bond returns in all countries.We find similar results for bond returns that are not hedged for currency risk.Finally, we show how the model can be used to calculate the Value at Risk for international bond portfolios and to price cross-currency interest rate derivatives, and compare the results with simpler models.bonds;return on investment;term structure of interest rates

On 1-convexity and nucleolus of co-insurance games

The situation, in which an enormous risk is insured by a number of insurance companies, is modeled through a cooperative TU game, the so-called co-insurance game, first introduced in Fragnelli and Marina (2004). In this paper we show that a co-insurance game possesses several interesting properties that allow to study the nonemptiness and the structure of the core and to construct an efficient algorithm for computing the nucleolus

Testing Affine Term Structure Models in Case of Transaction Costs

In this paper we empirically analyze the impact of transaction costs on the performance of affine interest rate models. We test the implied (no arbitrage) Euler restrictions, and we calculate the specification error bound of Hansen and Jagannathan to measure the extent to which a model is misspecified. Using data on T-bill and bond returns we find, under the assumption of frictionless markets, strong evidence of misspecification of one- and two-factor affine interest rate models. This is in line with earlier research. However, we show that the pricing errors of these models are reduced considerably, if relatively small transaction costs are taken into account. The average transaction costs for T-bills, due to the bid-ask spread, are around 1.5 basis points. At this size of transaction costs and for monthly holding periods, the misspecification of one- and two-factor affine interest rate models becomes statistically insignificant and economically very small. For quarterly holding periods, higher transaction costs of around 3 basis points are required to avoid misspecification.