Downscaling system for modeling of atmospheric composition on regional, urban and street scales

In this study, the downscaling modeling chain for prediction of weather and atmospheric composition is described and evaluated against observations. The chain consists of interfacing models for forecasting at different spatiotemporal scales that run in a semi-operational mode. The forecasts were performed for European (EU) regional and Danish (DK) subregional-urban scales by the offline coupled numerical weather prediction HIRLAM and atmospheric chemical transport CAMx models, and for Copenhagen citystreet scale by the online coupled computational fluid dynamics M2UE model. The results showed elevated NOx and lowered O-3 concentrations over major urban, industrial, and transport land and water routes in both the EU and DK domain forecasts. The O-3 diurnal cycle predictions in both these domains were equally good, although O-3 values were closer to observations for Denmark. At the same time, the DK forecast of NOx and NO2 levels was more biased (with a better prediction score of the diurnal cycle) than the EU forecast, indicating a necessity to adjust emission rates. Further downscaling to the street level (Copenhagen) indicated that the NOx pollution was 2-fold higher on weekends and more than 5 times higher during the working day with high pollution episodes. Despite high uncertainty in road traffic emissions, the street-scale model effectively captured the NOx and NO2 diurnal cycles and the onset of elevated pollution episodes. The demonstrated downscaling system could be used in future online integrated meteorology and air quality research and operational forecasting, as well as for impact assessents on environment, population, and decision making for emergency preparedness and safety measures planning.Peer reviewe

Constructive control of quantum systems using factorization of unitary operators

We demonstrate how structured decompositions of unitary operators can be employed to derive control schemes for finite-level quantum systems that require only sequences of simple control pulses such as square wave pulses with finite rise and decay times or Gaussian wavepackets. To illustrate the technique it is applied to find control schemes to achieve population transfers for pure-state systems, complete inversions of the ensemble populations for mixed-state systems, create arbitrary superposition states and optimize the ensemble average of dynamic observables.Comment: 28 pages, IoP LaTeX, principal author has moved to Cambridge University ([email protected]

Estudios de impacto de observaciones satelitales con el algoritmo de asimilación HIRLAM-4DVar

Ponencia presentada en: 6º Simposio de Meteorologia e Geofisica da APMG celebrado del 16 al 18 de marzo de 2009 en Costa Caparica, Portugal.We have carried out a number of observation impact studies with the aim to determine the individual and joint contributions of different space-based observing systems on the skill of short-range forecasts (up to 48 hours) over the Northern Atlantic and European regions. These studies are an essential part of the current HIRLAM data assimilation plan to include in the near future a bigger set of satellite observations than currently used in the operational runs of the different meteorological services within the HIRLAM consortium. In our experiments with data from up to 8 different satellites and the HIRLAM 4D-Var scheme running with a 6-hours long assimilation window, we have detected a significant positive impact on the forecast skill. The satellite observations not only help to better characterize the initial state, they reduce the mean size of increments and so contribute to filter numerical noise generated by the advection scheme in the assimilation algorithm. Analysing the geographical distribution of this impact, we have found some dependency on the type of observation in line with expectations, but we have ascertained too a good level of synergism among them. We recognise the need to consider more experiments with longer periods before more sound conclusions can be drawn and we are working on them

Development of On-Shore Behavior Among Polar Bears (Ursus Maritimus) in the Southern Beaufort Sea: Inherited or Learned?

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are experiencing rapid and substantial changes to their environment due to global climate change. Polar bears of the southern Beaufort Sea (SB) have historically spent most of the year on the sea ice. However, recent reports from Alaska indicate that the proportion of the SB subpopulation observed on-shore during late summer and early fall has increased. Our objective was to investigate whether this on-shore behavior has developed through genetic inheritance, asocial learning, or through social learning. From 2010 to 2013, genetic data were collected from SB polar bears in the fall via hair snags and remote biopsy darting on-shore and in the spring from captures and remote biopsy darting on the sea ice. Bears were categorized as either on-shore or off-shore individuals based on their presence onshore during the fall. Levels of genetic relatedness, first-order relatives, mother–offspring pairs, and father–offspring pairs were determined and compared within and between the two categories: on-shore versus off-shore. Results suggested transmission of on-shore behavior through either genetic inheritance or social learning as there was a higher than expected number of first-order relatives exhibiting on-shore behavior. Genetic relatedness and parentage data analyses were in concurrence with this finding, but further revealed mother–offspring social learning as the primary mechanism responsible for the development of on-shore behavior. Recognizing that on-shore behavior among polar bears was predominantly transmitted via social learning from mothers to their offspring has implications for future management and conservation as sea ice continues to decline

Caribou Distribution During the Post-calving Period in Relation to Infrastructure in the Prudhoe Bay Oil Field, Alaska

There is concern that caribou (Rangifer tarandus) may avoid roads and facilities (i.e. infrastructure) in the Prudhoe Bay oil field (PBOF) in northern Alaska, and that this avoidance can have negative effects on the animals. We quantified the relationship between caribou distribution and PBOF infrastructure during the post-calving period (mid-June to mid-August) with aerial surveys from 1990 to 1995. We conducted four to eight surveys per year with complete coverage of the PBOF. We identified active oil field infrastructure and used a geographic information system (GIS) to construct ten 1 km wide concentric intervals surrounding the infrastructure. We tested whether caribou distribution is related to distance from infrastructure with a chi-squared habitat utilization-availability analysis and log-linear regression. We considered bull, calves, and total caribou of all sex/age classes separately. The habitat utilization-availability analysis indicated there was no consistent trend of attraction to or avoidance of infrastructure. Caribou frequently were more abundant than expected in the intervals close to infrastructure, and this trend was more pronounced for bulls and for total caribou of all sex/age classes than for calves. Log-linear regression (with Poisson error structure) of numbers of caribou and distance from infrastructure were also done, with and without combining data into the 1 km distance intervals. The analysis without intervals revealed no relationship between caribou distribution and distance from oil field infrastructure, or between caribou distribution and Julian date, year, or distance from the Beaufort Sea coast. The log-linear regression with caribou combined into distance intervals showed the density of bulls and total caribou of all sex/age classes declined with distance from infrastructure. Our results indicate that during the post-calving period: 1) caribou distribution is largely unrelated to distance from infrastructure; 2) caribou regularly use habitats in the PBOF; 3) caribou often occur close to infrastructure; and 4) caribou do not appear to avoid oil field infrastructure.On s'inquiète du fait que le caribou (Rangifer tarandus) pourrait éviter les routes et installations (c-à-d. les infrastructures) du champ pétrolifère de Prudhoe Bay dans l'Alaska septentrional et que ce comportement pourrait avoir des répercussions négatives sur les animaux. Des relevés aériens effectués de 1990 à 1995 ont permis de quantifier le rapport entre la distribution du caribou et les infrastructures du champ pétrolifère de Prudhoe Bay au cours de la période suivant immédiatement la mise bas (de mi-juin à mi-août). On a procédé à un nombre de relevés annuels allant de quatre à huit, couvrant toute la superficie du champ. On a identifié les infrastructures du champ pétrolifère qui étaient en activité et utilisé un système d'information géographique (SIG) pour construire dix anneaux concentriques de 1 km de large entourant chaque infrastructure. On a testé l'hypothèse que la distribution du caribou est indépendante de l'éloignement de l'infrastructure grâce au test de chi carré entre l'utilisation et la disponibilité de l'habitat, et à la régression log-linéaire. On a tenu compte séparément de la catégorie des mâles, de celle des veaux et de celle de la population totale, sexe et âge confondus. L'analyse de l'utilisation et de la disponibilité de l'habitat révélait qu'il n'y avait pas de schéma cohérent d'attrait ou d'évitement des infrastructures. Les caribous étaient souvent plus abondants que prévu dans les anneaux proches des infrastructures, et cette tendance était plus prononcée pour les mâles adultes et pour l'ensemble des catégories, sexe et âge confondus, que pour les veaux. On a fait les analyses par régression log-linéaire en regroupant et sans regrouper les données anneaux de 1 km de largeur. L'analyse sans regroupement montrait qu'il n'existe pas de rapport entre la distribution du caribou et l'éloignement des infrastructures du champ pétrolifère, ou entre la distribution du caribou et la date julienne ou même l'éloignement de la côte de la mer de Beaufort. L'analyse log-linéaire avec les caribous regroupés dans des anneaux concentriques montrait que la densité des mâles adultes de l'ensemble de la population, sexe et âge confondus, était plus élevée dans les anneaux jouxtant les infrastructures. Nos résultats indiquent que, durant la période suivant immédiatement la mise bas: (1) la distribution du caribou est dans une large mesure indépendante de l'éloignement des infrastructures; (2) le caribou utilise les habitats au sein du champ pétrolifère de Prudhoe Bay sur une base régulière; (3) le caribou se trouve fréquemment près des infrastructures; et (4) le caribou ne semble pas chercher à éviter les infrastructures du champ pétrolifère

Estimation of capture probabilities using generalized estimating equations and mixed effects approaches

Modeling individual heterogeneity in capture probabilities has been one of the most challenging tasks in capture-recapture studies. Heterogeneity in capture probabilities can be modeled as a function of individual covariates, but correlation structure among capture occasions should be taking into account. A proposed generalized estimating equations (GEE) and generalized linear mixed modeling (GLMM) approaches can be used to estimate capture probabilities and population size for capture-recapture closed population models. An example is used for an illustrative application and for comparison with currently used methodology. A simulation study is also conducted to show the performance of the estimation procedures. Our simulation results show that the proposed quasi-likelihood based on GEE approach provides lower SE than partial likelihood based on either generalized linear models (GLM) or GLMM approaches for estimating population size in a closed capture-recapture experiment. Estimator performance is good if a large proportion of individuals are captured. For cases where only a small proportion of individuals are captured, the estimates become unstable, but the GEE approach outperforms the other methods

Growth hormone (GH)-independent dimerization of GH receptor by a leucine zipper results in constitutive activation*

Growth hormone initiates signaling by inducing homodimerization of two GH receptors. Here, we have sought to determine whether constitutively active receptor can be created in the absence of the extracellular domain by substituting it with high affinity leucine zippers to create dimers of the growth hormone receptor (GHR) signaling domain. The entire extracellular domain of the GHR was replaced by the hemagglutinin-tagged zipper sequence of either the c-Fos or c-Jun transcription factor (termed Fos-GHR and Jun-GHR, respectively). Transient transfection of Fos-GHR or Jun-GHR resulted in activation of the serine protease inhibitor 2.1 promoter in Chinese hamster ovary-K1 cells to a level equal to that achieved by fully activated wild type GHR. Furthermore, stable expression of Jun-GHR alone or Fos-GHR and Jun-GHR together in the interleukin 3-dependent BaF-B03 cell line resulted in cell proliferation after interleukin 3 withdrawal at a rate equal to maximally stimulated wild type GHR-expressing cells. Activation of STAT 5b was also observed in Fos-Jun-GHR-expressing cells at a level equal to that in chronically GH-treated GHR-expressing cells. Thus, forced dimerization of the transmembrane and cytoplasmic domains of the GHR in the absence of the extracellular domain can lead to the constitutive activation of known GH signaling end points, supporting the view that proximity of Janus kinase 2 (JAK2) kinases is the essential element in signaling. Such constitutively active GH receptors may have particular utility for transgenic livestock applications