Coherent mortality forecasting by the weighted multilevel functional principal component approach

In human mortality modelling, if a population consists of several subpopulations it can be desirable to model their mortality rates simultaneously while taking into account the heterogeneity among them. The mortality forecasting methods tend to result in divergent forecasts for subpopulations when independence is assumed. However, under closely related social, economic and biological backgrounds, mortality patterns of these subpopulations are expected to be non-divergent in the future. In this article, we propose a new method for coherent modelling and forecasting of mortality rates for multiple subpopulations, in the sense of nondivergent life expectancy among subpopulations. The mortality rates of subpopulations are treated as multilevel functional data and a weighted multilevel functional principal component (wMFPCA) approach is proposed to model and forecast them. The proposed model is applied to sex-specific data for nine developed countries, and the results show that, in terms of overall forecasting accuracy, the model outperforms the independent model and the Product-Ratio model as well as the unweighted multilevel functional principal component approach

The New Mirror: Reflecting on inhabitant behaviour in VR and VR visualisation

Technology inevitably evolves and develops rapidly in the modern era, industries and professions continue to strive in integrating, adapting and utilising these advancements to improve, optimise and improve the process of design to manufacture to the user experience. One such system that fits into this category is the advent of Virtual Reality and Augmented Reality. The numerous possibilities to which these visually and spatially immersive systems opportunities for immense innovation often lacks direction or an ultimate goal thus rendering this piece of software to often be little more than a visualisation tool.This paper recognises the unique position that VR allows and seeks to interrogate and deconstruct current, traditional design processes to better utilise VR in aiding and reinforcing the idea of partial testing of ideas and concepts throughout the design cycle. Different sciences such as psychology, processes and automation from computational design and considerations within software development will be employed and injected into the broader architectural context in which this research presides. In addition to the VR headset, eye tracking external hardware are integrated to develop a seamless tool and workflow that allows us, as designers to better interrogate clients behaviour within our designed digital representations which leads to validations, evaluations and criticisms of our actions within the architectural realm

Investigating teachers' explanations for aggressive classroom discipline strategies in China and Australia

Student misbehaviour can provoke aggressive teacher management (e.g. yelling in anger), adversely effecting students' learning and attitudes toward school. To investigate this phenomenon, data were obtained from 75 Chinese (typically Eastern) and 192 Victorian (typically Western) secondary teachers who self-reported aggressive management. Results: 49% of Chinese and 59% of Australian teachers adopt aggressive behaviours rarely to sometimes; and, 9% of Chinese and 13% of Australian teachers sometimes or more frequently. The teachers were assessed for levels of support for Attribution, Attachment or Efficacy theory as explanations. The only significant differences were found for Attachment theory with Chinese teachers reporting significantly more support. National setting explained 29% of the variance independent of gender, levels of aggression and years of experience. © 2012 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC

Prevalence of feline lungworm Aelurostrongylus abstrusus in England

Infection of cats with lungworm Aelurostrongylus abstrusus has recently been documented in the UK. Here, we aimed to study the prevalence of A. abstrusus in fecal samples from cats across England. A total of 950 fecal samples were collected from cats together with information on their age, breed, gender, geographic region, lifestyle, and treatment history. A total of 17 (1.7%) cats were positive for A. abstrusus based on species-specific morphological features of the larvae isolated by Baermann's technique. There was no statistically significant difference in the proportion of positive samples between females (506; 53.2%) and males (444; 46.7%). Multiple regression analysis showed that prevalence of feline lungworm was significantly different across geographic regions: in comparison with East Midlands, some regions had shown significantly increased odds of A. abstrusus-positive samples (South East [odds ratio [OR] = 7.68; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.70 to 32.76; p =.01]; West Midlands [OR = 6.20; 95% CI = 1.21 to 26.84; p =.02]), while other regions had also increased odds although not statistically significant (Greater London [OR = 9.63; 95% CI = 0.43 to 84.05; p =.07]; North West [OR = 4.25; 95% CI = 0.59 to 20.89; p =.09]; South West [OR = 2.48; 95% CI = 0.12 to 17.64; p =.43]; and North East [OR = 1.88; 95% CI = 0.10 to 12.24; p =.57]). Keeping cats inside was protective against the risk of infection compared with those having outdoor access (OR = 0.09; 95% CI = 0.01 to 0.48; p =.02). On the other hand, age, breed, gender and deworming history did not have any significant effect on the likelihood of infection. Our data indicate that A. abstrusus is a parasite of potential significance in cats, in particular those from certain geographic regions in England. To reduce the spread of this parasite, an integrated feline lungworm control program needs to be implemented

Residential Proximity to Major Roadways and Risk of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Meta-Analysis.

Research indicates that higher levels of traffic-related pollution exposure increase the risk of diabetes, but the association between road proximity and diabetes risk remains unclear. To assess and quantify the association between residential proximity to major roadways and type 2 diabetes, a systematic review and meta-analysis was performed. Embase, Medline, and Web of Science were searched for eligible studies. Using a random-effects meta-analysis, the summary relative risks (RRs) were calculated. Bayesian meta-analysis was also performed. Eight studies (6 cohort and 2 cross-sectional) with 158,576 participants were finally included. The summary unadjusted RR for type 2 diabetes associated with residential proximity to major roadways was 1.24 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.07-1.44, p = 0.001, I² = 48.1%). The summary adjusted RR of type 2 diabetes associated with residential proximity to major roadways was 1.12 (95% CI: 1.03-1.22, p = 0.01, I² = 17.9%). After excluding two cross-sectional studies, the summary results suggested that residential proximity to major roadways could increase type 2 diabetes risk (Adjusted RR = 1.13; 95% CI: 1.02-1.27, p = 0.025, I² = 36.6%). Bayesian meta-analysis showed that the unadjusted RR and adjusted RR of type 2 diabetes associated with residential proximity to major roadways were 1.22 (95% credibility interval: 1.06-1.55) and 1.13 (95% credibility interval: 1.01-1.31), respectively. The meta-analysis suggested that residential proximity to major roadways could significantly increase risk of type 2 diabetes, and it is an independent risk factor of type 2 diabetes. More well-designed studies are needed to further strengthen the evidence

Protein expression in dairy cows with and without subclinical hypocalcaemia

<p>AIM: To determine differences in plasma proteomic profiles between healthy cows and those with subclinical hypocalcaemia within 12 hours after calving, and thereby explore the underlying biological mechanism of subclinical hypocalcaemia in dairy cows.</p> <p>METHODS: Plasma samples were collected within 6 hours of calving from Holstein cows on a farm in Heilongjiang, China; 32 with subclinical hypocalcaemia (plasma calcium concentration 1.38–2.00 mmol/L and no clinical signs) and 59 control cows (plasma calcium concentration 2.10–2.8 mmol/L). Plasma samples were applied to weak cationic exchange protein chips for protein profiling by surface-enhanced laser desorption/ionisation time-of-flight mass spectrometry (SELDI-TOF-MS), and the data were analysed using the PBS-IIC system. The amplitude of peaks for the two groups were compared using the Wilcoxon sum-rank test, and the mass-to-charge ratio of the peaks that differed was used to identify peptide fragments using the Swiss-Prot protein database.</p> <p>RESULTS: Seven peaks were identified in the subclinical hypocalcaemia group that differed from those of the control group (p<0.001), that represented six unique proteins. Expression of serum albumin, fibrinogen alpha chain, amyloid beta A4 proteins and neurosecretory protein VGF were increased, and expression of apolipoprotein A-II and serum amyloid A proteins were decreased in the subclinical hypocalcaemic cows compared with control cows.</p> <p>CONCLUSION: Use of SELDI-TOF-MS technology can effectively identify differences in plasma protein expression patterns in cows with subclinical hypocalcaemia. Neurosecretory protein VGF and amyloid beta A4 protein might represent useful biomarkers for diagnosis of subclinical hypocalcaemia.</p

¹²⁷I and ¹²⁹I Species and Transformation in the Baltic Proper, Kattegat, and Skagerrak Basins

Occurrence of anthropogenic ¹²⁹I in seawater has provided invaluable information about water circulation and exchange rates, but results on ¹²⁹I species (iodide and iodate) are limited and only available for surface water. We here present the first extensive results on ¹²⁹I and ¹²⁷I species in samples of seawater depth profiles, which were collected in August 2006 and April 2007 in the Skagerrak, Kattegat, and Baltic Proper. The results expose ≤10% annual reduction of iodate as ¹²⁹I is transported from the English Channel along the Dutch coast and German Bight into the Skagerrak and Kattegat. The results also suggest strong variability between surface and bottom seawater with respect to the predominant iodine species. Distribution of iodide and iodate of both ¹²⁷I and ¹²⁹I in the Kattegat mainly reflects water mixing process rather than speciation transformation. In water of the Baltic Proper, high ¹²⁷I^–/¹²⁷IO₃^– and ¹²⁹I^–/¹²⁹IO₃^– values suggest effective reduction of iodate with a maximum rate of 8 × 10^–7 (¹²⁷IO₃^–) and 6 × 10^–14 (¹²⁹IO₃^–) (g/m³.day). The reduction process of iodate seems to be related to decomposition of organic matter and photochemically induced reactions

Gut microbiome-induced shift of acetate to butyrate positively manages dysbiosis in high fat diet

Scope: A recent study revealed that the accumulation of gut microbiota-produced acetate (GMPA) led to insulin over-secretion and obesity symptom. To further develop this scientific point, the effect of resistant starch (RS) or exogenous acetate carried by RS (RSA) in the gut on metabolic syndrome is investigated using diet-induced obese rats. Methods and results: The metabonomics analysis shows that the gut of rats in the RSA group generate more butyrate in both serum and feces rather than acetate compared to the rats in RS group, indicating the conversion among metabolites, in particular from acetate to butyrate via gut microbiota. Consistently, the gut microbiome uses acetate as a substrate to produce butyrate, such as Coprococcus, Faecalibacterium, Roseburia, and Eubacterium and was highly promoted in RSA group, which further supports the metabolic conversion. This is the first report to reveal the accumulation of gut microbiota-produced butyrate (GMPB) but not GMPA significantly enriched AMPK signaling pathway with reduced expression of lipogenesis-associated genes for suppressing sphingosines and ceramides biosynthesis to trigger insulin sensitivity. Conclusion: Gut microbiome profile and lipogenesis pathway are regulated by GMPB, which substantially influences energy harvesting in the gut from patterns opposed to GMPA. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinhei

Ultra-high efficient pH induced selective removal of cationic and anionic dyes from complex coexisted solution by novel amphoteric biocomposite microspheres

© 2019 Elsevier B.V. The substandard discharge of highly toxic dyestuff wastewater will pose a serious threat to the environment and human beings, even causing unimaginable irreversible damages. In the current study, novel amphoteric carboxymethyl chitosan/gelatin microspheres (CCGMs), synthesized by a facile inverse suspension route with two-step successive crosslinking process, were evaluated as a potential adsorbent for high efficient pH induced selective removal of azo-dyes. The as-prepared CCGMs were characterized using scanning electron microscopy (SEM), Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR), thermogravimetry analysis (TGA) and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS). Various influential factors such as solution pH, temperature, and contact time were employed to ascertain the optimal condition for representative azo-dyes adsorption, including methyl orange (MO) and methylene blue (MB). The maximal adsorption of MO and MB on the CCGMs at pH values of 3 and 11 were 383.142 mg g−1 and 584.795 mg g−1, respectively. The adsorption mechanism were demonstrated as the synergistic effect of electrostatic interaction and π-π stacking between dyes and CCGMs. Besides, the outstanding and stable regeneration of as-prepared CCGMs were also verified with five consecutive recycling. Thus, the newly developed CCGMs could be a highly promising candidate for dyestuff wastewater treatment

Chitosan oligosaccharide supplementation affects immunity markers in ewes and lambs during gestation and lactation

Chitosan oligosaccharide (COS) is derived through deacetylation of chitin from crustacean shells. Previous studies reported the benefits of COS to gut microbiota, immunity and health of host species. In this study, 120 pregnant composite ewes were subdivided into treatment and control groups in duplicate. COS was supplemented via a loose lick to provide an estimated intake of COS @100–600 mg/d/ewe for five weeks pre-lambing until lamb marking. Body weight was recorded pre-treatment for ewes, and at lamb marking and weaning for both ewes and lambs. Serum immunity markers immunoglobulin G (IgG), immunoglobulin M (IgM), immunoglobulin A (IgA), secretory immunoglobulin A (sIgA), interleukin (IL)-2, IL10 and faecal sIgA were determined for ewes and lambs at lamb marking and weaning by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). We found that COS can be incorporated in sheep feed without compromising palatability. Maternal COS supplementation did not influence the body weight of ewes or lambs. It did, however, significantly increase the concentrations of serum IL2 in ewes at marking and weaning (p < 0.001). In lambs, COS also significantly increased the IL2 concentration at making (p = 0.018) and weaning (p = 0.029) and serum IgM at marking (p < 0.001). No significant effect was observed in the concentration of any other immune marker or cytokine in either ewes or lambs. In conclusion, maternal COS supplementation significantly modulated some immunity markers in both ewes and lambs. The short duration of maternal COS supplementation and optimal seasonal conditions during the trial may explain the lack of significant body weight in ewes and lambs from the COS supplementation. Implications: Our findings indicate that COS can be incorporated in sheep feed without compromising palatability and maternal COS supplementation significantly modulated some immunity markers in both ewes and lambs, implying the functional role of COS and its use as a feed additive for improving sheep production and immunity. Findings from this study will help to develop alternative nutritional strategies to reduce the incidence of infectious diseases in sheep. COS can thus be proposed as a cost-effective functional feed targeting pregnant and lactating ewes and weaner lambs to improve sheep production