Innovation Pathways to Adaption for Humanitarian and Development Goals: A Case Study of Aftershock Forecasting for Disaster Risk Management

The innovation process is central to effective adaption to climate change and development challenges, but models from business and management tend to dominate innovation theory, which sits outside the adaption-development paradigm. This paper presents an alternative conceptual framework to visualise innovations as pathways across the adaption-development landscape for humanitarian and development goals. This useful tool can reveal, map and coordinate innovation strategy. To demonstrate and validate this approach we analyse a case study of innovation in aftershock forecasting for humanitarian decision-making and show that the most effective strategy is for multiple innovation strands and hubs to move concurrently and cumulatively towards transformative humanitarian and development goals

Weak signal detection: A discrete window of opportunity for achieving ‘Vision 90:90:90’?

INTRODUCTION: UNAIDS’ Vision 90:90:90 is a call to ‘end AIDS’. Developing predictive foresight of the unpredictable changes that this journey will entail could contribute to the ambition of ‘ending AIDS’. There are few opportunities for managing unpredictable changes. We introduce ‘weak signal detection’ as a potential opportunity to fill this void. METHOD: Combining futures and complexity theory, we reflect on two pilot case studies that involved the Archetype Extraction technique and the SenseMakerw CollectorTM tool. RESULTS: Both the piloted techniques have the potentials to surface weak signals but there is room for improvement. DISCUSSION: A management response to a complex weak signal requires pattern management, rather than an exclusive focus on behaviour management. CONCLUSION: Weak signal detection is a window of opportunity to improve resilience to unpredictable changes in the HIV/AIDS landscape that can both reduce the risk that emerges from the changes and increase the visibility of opportunities to exploit the unpredictable changes that could contribute to ‘ending AIDS’.IS