Understanding Terrorist Organizations with a Dynamic Model

Terrorist organizations change over time because of processes such as recruitment and training as well as counter-terrorism (CT) measures, but the effects of these processes are typically studied qualitatively and in separation from each other. Seeking a more quantitative and integrated understanding, we constructed a simple dynamic model where equations describe how these processes change an organization's membership. Analysis of the model yields a number of intuitive as well as novel findings. Most importantly it becomes possible to predict whether counter-terrorism measures would be sufficient to defeat the organization. Furthermore, we can prove in general that an organization would collapse if its strength and its pool of foot soldiers decline simultaneously. In contrast, a simultaneous decline in its strength and its pool of leaders is often insufficient and short-termed. These results and other like them demonstrate the great potential of dynamic models for informing terrorism scholarship and counter-terrorism policy making.Comment: To appear as Springer Lecture Notes in Computer Science v2: vectorized 4 figures, fixed two typos, more detailed bibliograph

Evaluation of positive G sub Z tolerance following simulated weightlessness (bedrest)

The magnitude of physiologic changes which are known to occur in human subjects exposed to varying levels of + G sub Z acceleration following bed rest simulation of weightlessness was studied. Bed rest effects were documented by fluid and electrolyte balance studies, maximal exercise capability, 70 deg passive tilt and lower body negative pressure tests and the ability to endure randomly prescribed acceleration profiles of +2G sub Z, +3G sub Z, and +4G sub Z. Six healthy male volunteers were studied during two weeks of bed rest after adequate control observations, followed by two weeks of recovery, followed by a second two-week period of bed rest at which time an Air Force cutaway anti-G suit was used to determine its effectiveness as a countermeasure for observed cardiovascular changes during acceleration. Results showed uniform and significant changes in all measured parameters as a consequence of bed rest including a reduced ability to tolerate +G sub Z acceleration. The use of anti-G suits significantly improved subject tolerance to all G exposures and returned measured parameters such as heart rate and blood pressure towards or to pre-bed-rest (control) values in four of the six cases

Management of Renal Cell Carcinoma: Evaluation of Renal Masses by Modem Radiological Techniques

The utilty of ultrasound and computed tomography is compared to angiography and that of nephrotomography in the study of renal masses. Ultrasound and computed tomography, noninvasive methods, are replacing nephrotomography and, in some cases, angiograph

Kondo regime in triangular arrangements of quantum dots: Molecular orbitals, interference and contact effects

Transport properties of an interacting triple quantum dot system coupled to three leads in a triangular geometry has been studied in the Kondo regime. Applying mean-field finite-U slave boson and embedded cluster approximations to the calculation of transport properties unveils a set of rich features associated to the high symmetry of this system. Results using both calculation techniques yield excellent overall agreement and provide additional insights into the physical behavior of this interesting geometry. In the case when just two current leads are connected to the three-dot system, interference effects between degenerate molecular orbitals are found to strongly affect the overall conductance. An S=1 Kondo effect is also shown to appear for the perfect equilateral triangle symmetry. The introduction of a third current lead results in an `amplitude leakage' phenomenon, akin to that appearing in beam splitters, which alters the interference effects and the overall conductance through the system.Comment: 14 pages, 9 figures, submitted to PR

Risk of ovarian cancer in relation to use of phenolphthalein-containing laxatives

We examined ovarian cancer risk in relation to use of phenolphthalein-containing laxatives in 410 epithelial ovarian cancer cases and 713 controls. Compared to women who never used a laxative, ever use of a phenolphthalein-containing laxative was not associated with an increased risk of ovarian cancer (odds ratio, OR, 1.1, 95% confidence interval, CI, 0.9–1.4). Risk was slightly, but not significantly, higher with more frequent use (OR 1.2 for 75 or more days of use). When women who used non-phenolphthalein containing laxatives was used as the reference group, the associations were slightly, but not significantly larger (OR 1.4 for any use of phenolphthalein-containing laxatives and OR 1.5 for 75 or more days of use) © 2000 Cancer Research Campaig

Military spending and economic growth in China: a regime-switching analysis

This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.This article investigates the impact of military spending changes on economic growth in China over the period 1953 to 2010. Using two-state Markov-switching specifications, the results suggest that the relationship between military spending changes and economic growth is state dependent. Specifically, the results show that military spending changes affect the economic growth negatively during a slower growth-higher variance state, while positively within a faster growth-lower variance one. It is also demonstrated that military spending changes contain information about the growth transition probabilities. As a policy tool, the results indicate that increases in military spending can be detrimental to growth during slower growth-higher growth volatility periods. © 2014 © 2014 The Author(s). Published by Taylor & Francis

An Analysis of Fundamental Waffle Mode in Early AEOS Adaptive Optics Images

Adaptive optics (AO) systems have significantly improved astronomical imaging capabilities over the last decade, and are revolutionizing the kinds of science possible with 4-5m class ground-based telescopes. A thorough understanding of AO system performance at the telescope can enable new frontiers of science as observations push AO systems to their performance limits. We look at recent advances with wave front reconstruction (WFR) on the Advanced Electro-Optical System (AEOS) 3.6 m telescope to show how progress made in improving WFR can be measured directly in improved science images. We describe how a "waffle mode" wave front error (which is not sensed by a Fried geometry Shack-Hartmann wave front sensor) affects the AO point-spread function (PSF). We model details of AEOS AO to simulate a PSF which matches the actual AO PSF in the I-band, and show that while the older observed AEOS PSF contained several times more waffle error than expected, improved WFR techniques noticeably improve AEOS AO performance. We estimate the impact of these improved WFRs on H-band imaging at AEOS, chosen based on the optimization of the Lyot Project near-infrared coronagraph at this bandpass.Comment: 15 pages, 11 figures, 1 table; to appear in PASP, August 200

Composition-dependent structural properties in ScGaN alloy films: A combined experimental and theoretical study

Experimental and theoretical results are presented regarding the incorporation of scandium into wurtzite GaN. Variation of the aa and cc lattice constants with Sc fraction in the low Sc concentration regime (0%–17%) are found that can be well explained by the predictions of first-principles theory. The calculations allow a statistical analysis of the variations of the bond lengths and bond angles as functions of Sc concentration. The results are compared to predictions from both a prior experimental study [Constantin et al., Phys. Rev. B 70, 193309 (2004)] and a prior theoretical study [Farrer and Bellaiche et al. Phys. Rev. B 66, 201203(R) (2002)]. It is found that the ScGaN lattice can be very well modeled as being wurtzitelike but with local lattice distortions arising from the incorporation of the Sc atoms. Effects of the addition of Sc on the stacking order for a large Sc fraction is also studied by high resolution transmission electron microscopy. The results show the existence of stacking faults, and induced stacking disorder. The explanation for the lattice constant variations is based on the effects of local lattice distortions and not related to the stacking faults.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/87322/2/123501_1.pd

The UN in the lab

We consider two alternatives to inaction for governments combating terrorism, which we term Defense and Prevention. Defense consists of investing in resources that reduce the impact of an attack, and generates a negative externality to other governments, making their countries a more attractive objective for terrorists. In contrast, Prevention, which consists of investing in resources that reduce the ability of the terrorist organization to mount an attack, creates a positive externality by reducing the overall threat of terrorism for all. This interaction is captured using a simple 3×3 “Nested Prisoner’s Dilemma” game, with a single Nash equilibrium where both countries choose Defense. Due to the structure of this interaction, countries can benefit from coordination of policy choices, and international institutions (such as the UN) can be utilized to facilitate coordination by implementing agreements to share the burden of Prevention. We introduce an institution that implements a burden-sharing policy for Prevention, and investigate experimentally whether subjects coordinate on a cooperative strategy more frequently under different levels of cost sharing. In all treatments, burden sharing leaves the Prisoner’s Dilemma structure and Nash equilibrium of the game unchanged. We compare three levels of burden sharing to a baseline in a between-subjects design, and find that burden sharing generates a non-linear effect on the choice of the efficient Prevention strategy and overall performance. Only an institution supporting a high level of mandatory burden sharing generates a significant improvement in the use of the Prevention strategy

Effect of Palmitic Acid on the Electrical Conductivity of Carbon Nanotubes−Epoxy Resin Composites

We found that the palmitic acid allows an efficient dispersion of carbon nanotubes in the epoxy matrix. We have set up an experimental protocol in order to enhance the CNTs dispersion in epoxy resin. Electrical conductivity is optimal using a 1:1 CNTs to palmitic acid weight ratio. The associated percolation threshold is found between 0.05 and 0.1 wt % CNTs, i.e., between 0.03 and 0.06 vol %. The SEM image shows essentially individual CNTs which is inagreement with conductivity measurements. In comparison with composites without palmitic acid, the use of palmitic acid improves the electrical properties of CNTs-epoxy resin composites