ifo Konjunkturprognose 2011/2012: Schuldenkrise bremst deutsche Wirtschaft aus

Am 14. Dezember 2011 stellte das ifo Institut im Rahmen seines vorweihnachtlichen Pressegesprächs seine Prognose für die Jahre 2011 und 2012 vor. In Deutschland ist das Bruttoinlandsprodukt bis zuletzt deutlich gestiegen. Der ifo Geschäftsklimaindex und andere Frühindikatoren zeigen jedoch an, dass der deutschen Konjunktur ein Abschwung bevorsteht. Maßgeblich hierfür sind die sich abschwächende Weltwirtschaft und die europäische Schuldenkrise. Die Abhängigkeit der Konjunkturentwicklung von den Entscheidungen der europäischen Politik erschwert die Prognose erheblich, denn es sind ganz unterschiedliche plausible Szenarien möglich. Unter der Annahme, dass sich die Eurokrise nicht weiter verschärft und sich insbesondere Italien weiter am Markt finanzieren kann, dürfte eine Rezession in Deutschland vermieden werden. Dennoch wird das deutsche Bruttoinlandsprodukt 2012 voraussichtlich nur um 0,4% zunehmen. Es ist daher zu erwarten, dass sich der Beschäftigungsaufbau deutlich verlangsamt. Gestützt von demographischen Faktoren dürfte die Arbeitslosenzahl aber noch um 140 000 auf rund 2,8 Mill. Personen zurückgehen. Dies entspricht einer Arbeitslosenquote von 6,7%. Im Gefolge der schwächeren Konjunktur wird sich das Tempo des Preisauftriebs abschwächen; im Jahresdurchschnitt 2012 ist mit einer Inflationsrate von 1,8% zu rechnen. Das staatliche Budgetdefizit in Relation zum nominalen Bruttoinlandsprodukt wird im nächsten Jahr voraussichtlich bei 0,9% liegen. Es muss betont werden, dass die makroökonomische Unsicherheit nicht zuletzt aus politischen Gründen derzeit extrem hoch ist. So könnten schon kleine Abweichungen Italiens vom geplanten Konsolidierungskurs zu neuen Verwerfungen an den ohnehin extrem angespannten Finanzmärkten und kaum abschätzbaren politischen Reaktionen führen. Diese könnten die der Prognose zugrunde liegenden Annahmen schnell obsolet werden lassen. Aus technischer Sicht ist damit die Eintrittswahrscheinlichkeit des Basisszenarios deutlich geringer, als esKonjunktur, Konjunkturprognose, Konjunkturumfrage, Wirtschaftslage, Geschäftsklima, Weltkonjunktur, Deutschland, Welt

Oral Microbiome Profiles: 16S rRNA Pyrosequencing and Microarray Assay Comparison

The human oral microbiome is potentially related to diverse health conditions and high-throughput technology provides the possibility of surveying microbial community structure at high resolution. We compared two oral microbiome survey methods: broad-based microbiome identification by 16S rRNA gene sequencing and targeted characterization of microbes by custom DNA microarray.Oral wash samples were collected from 20 individuals at Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center. 16S rRNA gene survey was performed by 454 pyrosequencing of the V3–V5 region (450 bp). Targeted identification by DNA microarray was carried out with the Human Oral Microbe Identification Microarray (HOMIM). Correlations and relative abundance were compared at phylum and genus level, between 16S rRNA sequence read ratio and HOMIM hybridization intensity.; Correlation = 0.70–0.84).Microbiome community profiles assessed by 16S rRNA pyrosequencing and HOMIM were highly correlated at the phylum level and, when comparing the more commonly detected taxa, also at the genus level. Both methods are currently suitable for high-throughput epidemiologic investigations relating identified and more common oral microbial taxa to disease risk; yet, pyrosequencing may provide a broader spectrum of taxa identification, a distinct sequence-read record, and greater detection sensitivity

The Art of Research: A Divergent/Convergent Framework and Opportunities for Science-Based Approaches

Applying science to the current art of producing engineering and research knowledge has proven difficult, in large part because of its seeming complexity. We posit that the microscopic processes underlying research are not so complex, but instead are iterative and interacting cycles of divergent (generation of ideas) and convergent (testing and selecting of ideas) thinking processes. This reductionist framework coherently organizes a wide range of previously disparate microscopic mechanisms which inhibit these processes. We give examples of such inhibitory mechanisms and discuss how deeper scientific understanding of these mechanisms might lead to dis-inhibitory interventions for individuals, networks and institutional levels

Evaluation of serum CEA, CYFRA21-1 and CA125 for the early detection of colorectal cancer using longitudinal preclinical samples

Blood-borne biomarkers for early detection of colorectal cancer (CRC) could markedly increase screening uptake. The aim of this study was to evaluate serum carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), CYFRA21-1 and CA125 for the early detection of CRC in an asymptomatic cohort

Criteria for the use of omics-based predictors in clinical trials: Explanation and elaboration

High-throughput 'omics' technologies that generate molecular profiles for biospecimens have been extensively used in preclinical studies to reveal molecular subtypes and elucidate the biological mechanisms of disease, and in retrospective studies on clinical specimens to develop mathematical models to predict clinical endpoints. Nevertheless, the translation of these technologies into clinical tests that are useful for guiding management decisions for patients has been relatively slow. It can be difficult to determine when the body of evidence for an omics-based test is sufficiently comprehensive and reliable to support claims that it is ready for clinical use, or even that it is ready for definitive evaluation in a clinical trial in which it may be used to direct patient therapy. Reasons for this difficulty include the exploratory and retrospective nature of many of these studies, the complexity of these assays and their application to clinical specimens, and the many potential pitfalls inherent in the development of mathematical predictor models from the very high-dimensional data generated by these omics technologies. Here we present a checklist of criteria to consider when evaluating the body of evidence supporting the clinical use of a predictor to guide patient therapy. Included are issues pertaining to specimen and assay requirements, the soundness of the process for developing predictor models, expectations regarding clinical study design and conduct, and attention to regulatory, ethical, and legal issues. The proposed checklist should serve as a useful guide to investigators preparing proposals for studies involving the use of omics-based tests. The US National Cancer Institute plans to refer to these guidelines for review of proposals for studies involving omics tests, and it is hoped that other sponsors will adopt the checklist as well. © 2013 McShane et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd

Los Alamos National Laboratory Report LA-1677

From abstract: "An apparatus is described which automatically separates a flow of drops into a series of equal samples.

A NEW METHOD OF PRICING LOOKBACK OPTIONS

A new method for pricing lookback options (a.k.a. hindsight options) is presented, which simplifies the derivation of analytical formulas for this class of exotics in the Black-Scholes framework. Underlying the method is the observation that a lookback option can be considered as an integrated form of a related barrier option. The integrations with respect to the barrier price are evaluated at the expiry date to derive the payoff of an equivalent portfolio of European-type binary options. The arbitrage-free price of the lookback option can then be evaluated by static replication as the present value of this portfolio. We illustrate the method by deriving expressions for generic, standard floating-, fixed-, and reverse-strike lookbacks, and then show how the method can be used to price the more complex partial-price and partial-time lookback options. The method is in principle applicable, to frameworks with alternative asset-price dynamics to the Black-Scholes world. © 2005 Blackwell Publishing Inc