ECONOMIC BURDEN OF SALMONELLA INFECTIONS IN THE UNITED STATES

The aim of this study is to evaluate medical expenditures and lost productivity associated with burden of Salmonella infections. We used laboratory confirmed number of Salmonella cases and corresponding multipliers to estimate the burden of illness using the method adopted by Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet) at Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The medical costs estimates are retrospective analysis of reimbursement records from MarketScan data. We identified patients with a diagnosis of salmonellosis using ICD-9 CM codes from the MarketScan 1993-2001 databases. Productivity loss from the nonfatal cases of Salmonella was calculated using the distributions of lost workdays and household services due to the illness. Statistical value of life approach was used to estimate the costs due to premature deaths. We also compared the costs for the gastrointestinal salmonellosis to the cost for the invasive salmonellosis. Confidence intervals around the cost estimates were calculated using a Monte Carlo simulation technique. Estimated average economic burden due to Salmonella was $210 per outpatient,$5,797 per inpatient with gastrointestinal infection, $16,441 per impatient with invasive infection and$4.63 million per premature death. Total economic buren due to Salmonella in the United States was estimated at $2.8 billion (95$1.6 to $5.3 billion) annually, which is approximately$2,472 per case of Salmonella infection. The cost estimate is largely driven by the number of premature deaths followed by average cost of hospitalization. Defining the risk factors for fatal outcomes may help target treatment and preventive strategies.Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety,

The galaxy correlation function as a constraint on galaxy formation physics

We introduce methods which allow observed galaxy clustering to be used together with observed luminosity or stellar mass functions to constrain the physics of galaxy formation. We show how the projected two-point correlation function of galaxies in a large semi-analytic simulation can be estimated to better than ~10% using only a very small subsample of the subhalo merger trees. This allows measured correlations to be used as constraints in a Monte Carlo Markov Chain exploration of the astrophysical and cosmological parameter space. An important part of our scheme is an analytic profile which captures the simulated satellite distribution extremely well out to several halo virial radii. This is essential to reproduce the correlation properties of the full simulation at intermediate separations. As a first application, we use low-redshift clustering and abundance measurements to constrain a recent version of the Munich semi-analytic model. The preferred values of most parameters are consistent with those found previously, with significantly improved constraints and somewhat shifted "best" values for parameters that primarily affect spatial distributions. Our methods allow multi-epoch data on galaxy clustering and abundance to be used as joint constraints on galaxy formation. This may lead to significant constraints on cosmological parameters even after marginalising over galaxy formation physics.Comment: 17 pages, 11 figures. Replaced to match the version accepted by MNRA

Synchronous vs Asynchronous Chain Motion in α-Synuclein Contact Dynamics

α-Synuclein (α-syn) is an intrinsically unstructured 140-residue neuronal protein of uncertain function that is implicated in the etiology of Parkinson’s disease. Tertiary contact formation rate constants in α-syn, determined from diffusion-limited electron-transfer kinetics measurements, are poorly approximated by simple random polymer theory. One source of the discrepancy between theory and experiment may be that interior-loop formation rates are not well approximated by end-to-end contact dynamics models. We have addressed this issue with Monte Carlo simulations to model asynchronous and synchronous motion of contacting sites in a random polymer. These simulations suggest that a dynamical drag effect may slow interior-loop formation rates by about a factor of 2 in comparison to end-to-end loops of comparable size. The additional deviations from random coil behavior in α-syn likely arise from clustering of hydrophobic residues in the disordered polypeptide

Improving randomness characterization through Bayesian model selection

Nowadays random number generation plays an essential role in technology with important applications in areas ranging from cryptography, which lies at the core of current communication protocols, to Monte Carlo methods, and other probabilistic algorithms. In this context, a crucial scientific endeavour is to develop effective methods that allow the characterization of random number generators. However, commonly employed methods either lack formality (e.g. the NIST test suite), or are inapplicable in principle (e.g. the characterization derived from the Algorithmic Theory of Information (ATI)). In this letter we present a novel method based on Bayesian model selection, which is both rigorous and effective, for characterizing randomness in a bit sequence. We derive analytic expressions for a model's likelihood which is then used to compute its posterior probability distribution. Our method proves to be more rigorous than NIST's suite and the Borel-Normality criterion and its implementation is straightforward. We have applied our method to an experimental device based on the process of spontaneous parametric downconversion, implemented in our laboratory, to confirm that it behaves as a genuine quantum random number generator (QRNG). As our approach relies on Bayesian inference, which entails model generalizability, our scheme transcends individual sequence analysis, leading to a characterization of the source of the random sequences itself.Comment: 25 page

Simultaneous Border-Collision and Period-Doubling Bifurcations

We unfold the codimension-two simultaneous occurrence of a border-collision bifurcation and a period-doubling bifurcation for a general piecewise-smooth, continuous map. We find that, with sufficient non-degeneracy conditions, a locus of period-doubling bifurcations emanates non-tangentially from a locus of border-collision bifurcations. The corresponding period-doubled solution undergoes a border-collision bifurcation along a curve emanating from the codimension-two point and tangent to the period-doubling locus here. In the case that the map is one-dimensional local dynamics are completely classified; in particular, we give conditions that ensure chaos.Comment: 22 pages; 5 figure

Direct measurement of the 14N(p,g)15O S-factor

We have measured the 14N(p,g)15O excitation function for energies in the range E_p = 155--524 keV. Fits of these data using R-matrix theory yield a value for the S-factor at zero energy of 1.64(17) keV b, which is significantly smaller than the result of a previous direct measurement. The corresponding reduction in the stellar reaction rate for 14N(p,g)15O has a number of interesting consequences, including an impact on estimates for the age of the Galaxy derived from globular clusters.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures, submitted to Phys. Rev. Let

Conductance Distributions in Random Resistor Networks: Self Averaging and Disorder Lengths

The self averaging properties of conductance $g$ are explored in random resistor networks with a broad distribution of bond strengths P(g)\simg^{\mu-1}. Distributions of equivalent conductances are estimated numerically on hierarchical lattices as a function of size $L$ and distribution tail parameter $\mu$. For networks above the percolation threshold, convergence to a Gaussian basin is always the case, except in the limit $\mu$ --> 0. A {\it disorder length} $\xi_D$ is identified beyond which the system is effectively homogeneous. This length diverges as $\xi_D \sim |\mu|^{-\nu}$ ($\nu$ is the regular percolation correlation length exponent) as $\mu$-->0. This suggest that exactly the same critical behavior can be induced by geometrical disorder and bu strong bond disorder with the bond occupation probability $p$$\mu$. Only lattices at the percolation threshold have renormalized probability distribution in a {\it Levy-like} basin. At the threshold the disorder length diverges at a vritical tail strength $\mu_c$ as $|\mu-\mu_c|^{-z}$, with $z=3.2\pm 0.1$, a new exponent. Critical path analysis is used in a generalized form to give form to give the macroscopic conductance for lattice above $p_c$.Comment: 16 pages plain TeX file, 6 figures available upon request.IBC-1603-01

On Hirschman and log-Sobolev inequalities in mu-deformed Segal-Bargmann analysis

We consider a deformation of Segal-Bargmann space and its transform. We study L^p properties of this transform and obtain entropy-entropy inequalities (Hirschman) and entropy-energy inequalities (log-Sobolev) that generalize the corresponding known results in the undeformed theory.Comment: 42 pages, 3 figure

Impact of Systematics on SZ-Optical Scaling Relations

One of the central goals of multi-wavelength galaxy cluster cosmology is to unite all cluster observables to form a consistent understanding of cluster mass. Here, we study the impact of systematic effects from optical cluster catalogs on stacked SZ signals. We show that the optically predicted Y-decrement can vary by as much as 50% based on the current 2 sigma systematic uncertainties in the observed mass-richness relationship. Mis-centering and impurities will suppress the SZ signal compared to expectations for a clean and perfectly centered optical sample, but to a lesser degree. We show that the level of these variations and suppression is dependent on the amount of systematics in the optical cluster catalogs. We also study X-ray luminosity-dependent sub-sampling of the optical catalog and find that it creates Malmquist bias increasing the observed Y-decrement of the stacked signal. We show that the current Planck measurements of the Y-decrement around SDSS optical clusters and their X-ray counterparts are consistent with expectations after accounting for the 1 sigma optical systematic uncertainties using the Johnston mass richness relation.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures. Revised to match version accepted in the Astrophysical Journa