PANDEMIC IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON THE STOCK MARKET INDEX AND RETURN OF STOCK MARKET INDEX (EVENT STUDY ON STOCK MARKET INDEX IN ASEAN EXCHANGE)

ABSTRACT The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of COVID-19 on six stock market indexes of countries listed on ASEAN Exchanges and three stock market indexes of countries listed on ASEAN Exchanges which have sectoral index of consumer products and property. The variables used in this study were the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic event; price and return of the six stock market indexes. The sample data in this study were measured based on the entire study period, before the date of the first confirmed case of COVID-19, and after the date of the first confirmed case of COVID-19. The population in this study is all stock market indexes of countries as well as all those that have sectoral index of consumer products and property in ASEAN Exchanges. This study was a population study conducted in the period of 2019-2020 by using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) Family Models, and California Managed Accounts Reports (Calmar) Ratio as the tools for analysis. The results showed that all the variables tested had a highly significant degenerating long-term relationship due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic; there was an ARCH or GARCH effect in all stock market indexes in ASEAN Exchanges affected by the COVID-19 pandemic; and there was a relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic event and the return on the country's stock market index and which for the consumer products and property sector in the ASEAN Exchanges with heterogeneous returns and the distribution of risk levels was inefficient. Keywords:  COVID-19; stock market index; return stock market index; ARDL Model; ARCH Family Models ABSTRAKPenelitian ini bertujuan untuk melihat dampak COVID-19 terhadap enam indeks saham di negara-negara yang terdaftar pada ASEAN Exchanges dan tiga indeks saham dari negara-negara yang terdaftar di ASEAN Exchanges yang memiliki indeks sektor konsumer dan properti. Variabel dalam penelitian ini adalah peristiwa pandemi COVID-19, harga dan return dari enam indeks saham. Data sampel diukur berdasarkan periode studi secara keseluruhan, sebelum tanggal kasus pertama COVID-19, dan sesudah tanggal kasus pertama COVID-19. Populasi dalam penelitian ini adalah semua indeks saham dari negara-negara yang terdaftar di ASEAN Exchanges dan juga mereka yang memiliki indeks sektor konsumer dan properti. Penelitian ini merupakan penelitian populasi yang dilaksanakan selama periode 2019-2020 dengan menggunakan Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) Family Models, dan California Managed Accounts Reports (Calmar) Ratio. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa semua variabel yang diuji memiliki hubungan jangka panjang yang merosot secara signifikan akibat pandemi COVID-19; terdapat efek ARCH atau GARCH pada semua indeks saham dalam ASEAN Exchanges akibat pandemi COVID-19; dan terdapat hubungan antara pandemi COVID-19 dan return indeks saham dalam negara-negara tersebut dan juga untuk sektor konsumer dan properti dalam ASEAN Exchanges dengan return yang heterogen dan distribusi tingkat risiko yang tidak efisien.Kata kunci:    COVID-19; indeks saham; return indeks saham; ARDL Model; ARCH Family Model

Outward foreign direct investment by Brazilian and Indian multinational companies: comparison with Russian-Chinese multinationals

International audienceThe purpose of this paper is to complete an overall comparative study of outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) from BRIC countries and strategies conducted by multinational corporations (MNCs) whose parent companies are based in the BRICs 2. In a sense, it is a follow-up to three previous companion papers (Andreff, 2013a, 2013b & 2014) which already compared OFDI and strategies of those MNCs based in the two post-communist transition economies, China and Russia, which are classified with Brazil and India into the BRICs group. Here the focus is on Brazilian and Indian MNCs and their OFDI using as a benchmark major outcomes derived from the study of Chinese and Russian multinationals (Table 1). Such a benchmark does not mean that we were expecting at the starting point of this research to find the same OFDI features and MNC strategies for firms based in Brazil and India as those identified for Chinese and Russian companies that have extended their investments abroad. To the contrary the intent is to check, against a benchmark of MNCs emerging from former centrally planned economies with a single (communist) party regime, how much the differences in Brazilian and Indian market economies with a democratic political regime over the past decades 3 countervail (or not) the assumed similarities across all the BRICs.. The study by Holtbrügge & Kreppel (2012) indeed covers all the four BRICs " OFDI though only with case studies of eight companies. 3 Even though India has had a system of central planning from the 1950s on (but not a centralised mandatory quantitative planning as in former Soviet countries) until 1991 and Brazil has endeavoured some decades of authoritarian political regime before the 1990s

The Macroeconomic Determinants and Market Efficiency of Precious Metals: An Empirical Evidence of International Markets

This empirical study extends market efficiency application to precious metals. Literature suggests that prices of four precious metals (i.e., Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Palladium) fluctuate due to instability of macroeconomic factors globally. Moreover, the impact of macroeconomic factors causes uncertainty in the prices of metals which affects the investors’ return. To test the robustness of the precious metals price efficiency, this thesis is divided into three separate empirical studies that measure market efficiency and analyse the impact of macroeconomic factors on pricing in developed and emerging economies. Chapter 2 (Paper 1) examines weak-form efficiency in the precious metal market using the Automatic Portmanteau, Automatic Variance Ratio, Autoboot Variance Ratio, and Generalized Spectral Shape tests. The findings demonstrate that market efficiency for four precious metals in developed and emerging economies changes over time. Market efficiency may vary due to technical changes, economic booms and busts. The other reason could be that markets are fragmented due to restrictions, lunar cycles, market complexity, and other challenges. Chapter 3 (Paper 2) investigates the relationship between macroeconomic factors and precious metals prices across developed and emerging markets from 1979 to 2020 using multiple time series techniques – Johansen Cointegration, VECM, VAR, ARDL model, and Wald tests. The findings revealed the long-run and short -run relationships between precious metals prices and macroeconomic factors vary depending on the country of the study. In the long run, cointegrating relationships are unstable and differ significantly between developed and emerging economies. The causality test results between four precious metals and major macroeconomic indicators vary depending on the country and the sample length of the frequency distributions used. Chapter 4 (Paper 3) examined how macroeconomic factors collectively impact gold, silver, and platinum prices in developed and emerging economies using the panel data unit root test and dynamic panel data model. The findings demonstrate that macroeconomic factors affect precious metal prices in developed and emerging economies

Developmental States: A Review of the Literature

This document is an output from a project funded by the UK Aid from the UK Department for International Development (DFID) for the benefit of developing countries. However, the views expressed and information contained in it are not necessarily those of or endorsed by DFID, which can accept no responsibility for such views or information or for any reliance placed on them. This paper conducts a review of the literature concerning developmental states, in order to identify gaps and suggest research questions which could be fruitful for the Effective States and Inclusive Development Research Consortium to explore, within the remit of their proposed research programme. This literature review attends to three key questions about developmental states and the answers proposed to them within the literature, namely; what worked? Why did it work? And would it work elsewhere? It also examines an emerging literature suggesting other models of a developmental state more suited to contemporary circumstances, which focus more explicitly on development as a social phenomenon rather than as a purely economic one. These are of particular interest given ESIDs focus on inclusive development. The conclusions of the paper examine some of the gaps in the literature and suggest an agenda for future research which includes addressing questions around: How does the consensus of conducting developmental roles come about – and how is it sustained? Patrimonialism, personal rule, development and stability Role of education, especially higher/further education Importance of rural/agriculture policie