Forest soil carbon stock estimates in a nationwide inventory: evaluating performance of the ROMULv and Yasso07 models in Finland

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Northward shift of the agricultural climate zone under 21st-century global climate change

As agricultural regions are threatened by climate change, warming of high latitude regions and increasing food demands may lead to northward expansion of global agriculture. While socio-economic demands and edaphic conditions may govern the expansion, climate is a key limiting factor. Extant literature on future crop projections considers established agricultural regions and is mainly temperature based. We employed growing degree days (GDD), as the physiological link between temperature and crop growth, to assess the global northward shift of agricultural climate zones under 21st-century climate change. Using ClimGen scenarios for seven global climate models (GCMs), based on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and transient GHGs, we delineated the future extent of GDD areas, feasible for small cereals, and assessed the projected changes in rainfall and potential evapotranspiration. By 2099, roughly 76% (55% to 89%) of the boreal region might reach crop feasible GDD conditions, compared to the current 32%. The leading edge of the feasible GDD will shift northwards up to 1200 km by 2099 while the altitudinal shift remains marginal. However, most of the newly gained areas are associated with highly seasonal and monthly variations in climatic water balances, a critical component of any future land-use and management decisions

Modelling boreal forest's mineral soil and peat C dynamics with the Yasso07 model coupled with the Ricker moisture modifier

As soil microbial respiration is the major component of land CO2 emissions, differences in the functional dependence of respiration on soil moisture among Earth system models (ESMs) contributes significantly to the uncertainties in their projections. Using soil organic C (SOC) stocks and CO2 data from a boreal forest–mire ecotone in Finland and Bayesian data assimilation, we revised the original precipitation-based monotonic saturation dependency of the Yasso07 soil carbon model using the non-monotonic Ricker function based on soil volumetric water content. We fit the revised functional dependency of moisture to the observed microbial respiration and SOC stocks and compared its performance against the original Yasso07 model and the version used in the JSBACH land surface model with a reduction constant for decomposition rates in wetlands. The Yasso07 soil C model coupled with the calibrated unimodal Ricker moisture function with an optimum in well-drained soils accurately reconstructed observed SOC stocks and soil CO2 emissions and clearly outperformed previous model versions on paludified organo-mineral soils in forested peatlands and water-saturated organic soils in mires. The best estimate of the posterior moisture response of decomposition used both measurements of SOC stocks and CO2 data from the full range of moisture conditions (from dry and xeric to wet and water-saturated soils). We observed unbiased residuals of SOC and CO2 data modelled with the moisture optimum in well-drained soils, suggesting that this modified function accounts more precisely for the long-term SOC change dependency according to ecosystem properties as well as the contribution of short-term CO2 responses including extreme events. The optimum moisture for decomposition in boreal forests was found in well-drained soils instead of the mid-range between dry and water-saturated conditions as is commonly assumed among soil C and ESMs. Although the unimodal moisture modifier with an optimum in well-drained soils implicitly incorporates robust biogeochemical mechanisms of SOC accumulation and CO2 emissions, it needs further evaluation with large-scale data to determine if its use in land surface models will decrease the uncertainty in projections.</p

Simulation modelling of greenhouse gas balance in continuous-cover forestry of Norway spruce stands on nutrient-rich drained peatlands

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Methane Emissions from Paludified Boreal Soils in European Russia as Measured and Modelled

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